January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Scraff]

Wow! CMC and GooFus is like a weenie parade. 

[yoda]

Looks like the "potential" starts next Thursday per 12z GFS 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Gfs with 3 shots over 6 days there. Really close to an extended event too just missed some h5 energy that run. The signals are there let’s do this. 

Yepper, this run is 'volatile as fuck' , as @CAPE would say. Only a subtle change here or there from the end of the rainbow jackpot or bottom of the cliff carnage. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Wow! CMC and GooFus is like a weenie parade. 

@ravensrule

[Scraff]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Only if @Scraffisn't driving, after seeing his fridge....dear lord!

I would never drink and drive the snow bus or any vehicle for that matter. That’s plain dumb. I wait until a stoplight. 

[Maestrobjwa]

The suppression issue is tempering my enthusiasm for this window for my yard and north. We are right on the edge with the suppression--and if the waves are just gonna slide by DC will be golden but up here? I don't know man...

[stormtracker]

Was in a meeting.  Seems like something happened

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Was in a meeting.  Seems like something happened

Yeah, GFS dropped 12" of snow over three storms. Just GFS stuff, though.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I would never drink and drive the snow bus or any vehicle for that matter. That’s plain dumb. I wait until a stoplight. 

This is what i envision wrt the bus and us all on board

[bncho]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

This is what i envision wrt the bus and us all on board

what lunatic is driving?

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, bncho said:

what lunatic is driving?

Ain't me, im in the last seat gooning

[Chris78]

31 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

The suppression issue is tempering my enthusiasm for this window for my yard and north. We are right on the edge with the suppression--and if the waves are just gonna slide by DC will be golden but up here? I don't know man...

I'd rather be in this spot a week out than everything running NW of us. 

I hear what your saying. I'd rather have the wiggle room though 

[LP08]

I’m just hoping to get some real qpf with this upcoming pattern.  I hope this period doesn’t result to the same 75 mile wide “win zone” of 0.2” of precip fluctuating each run we have been dealing with the past few years.

[wxdude64]

28 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ooh, 258 the shortwave in the SW is ejecting with cold in place and NS action to boot. Cue the Jaws music.

Why we gotta be so far out for the good stuff? 

 

[Scraff]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

what lunatic is driving?

That would be @stormtrackerdriving. No doubt about it. 

[ravensrule]

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

@ravensrule

I’m always the head of the parade. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Scraff said:

That would be @stormtrackerdriving. No doubt about it. 

If it's a bus full of yall, definitely flipping that motherfucker over.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

I’m just hoping to get some real qpf with this upcoming pattern.  I hope this period doesn’t result to the same 75 mile wide “win zone” of 0.2” of precip fluctuating each run we have been dealing with the past few years.

Yeah I'm so sick of that.  Lets see some 1.0 QPF type stuff for once.

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I'd rather be in this spot a week out that everything running NW of us. 

I hear what your saying. I'd rather have the wiggle room though 

Very true. This could be a situation where we actually want some NS interaction to bring things up a bit. At least we have more moisture on tap!

Sorry y'all the frustration just leaks out when it comes to this...it's been rough up here, lol

[Twilly05]

10 minutes ago, bncho said:

what lunatic is driving?

Gotta put PSU in drivers seat

[Solution Man]

13 minutes ago, bncho said:

what lunatic is driving?

Superchuck

[benjammin]

Go big or go home. Tap the gulf and take our chances with suppression. 

[WxUSAF]

Other thread!

[stormtracker]

Decent hit around the 29th.   Heavy slug of moisture just to our south

*It's actually a pretty good hit.  No temp issues

Fuck me...that's the goddamn GFS I had pulled up.    Sorry yall, I'm only 14

[stormtracker]

but yeah, Euro is showing the GFS thing for the 26/27th, just lighter

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Decent hit around the 29th.   Heavy slug of moisture just to our south

*It's actually a pretty good hit.  No temp issues

Fuck me...that's the goddamn GFS I had pulled up.    Sorry yall, I'm only 14

I feel like that's directed at somebody but how should I know, I'm only 14 

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Decent hit around the 29th.   Heavy slug of moisture just to our south

*It's actually a pretty good hit.  No temp issues

Fuck me...that's the goddamn GFS I had pulled up.    Sorry yall, I'm only 14

even  if it was the euro--who cares about the 29th?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

EURO AI has precip the 24th with marginal surface temps for DC and then again on the 28th except colder.  

[stormtracker]

Just now, bncho said:

I feel like that's directed at somebody but should I know, I'm only 14 

Light hearted trolling.   If I didn't like ya, I wouldn't troll you.

Now go play with some legos

*I actually love legos and have an extensive collection

[Ji]

Euro surface maps are not out yet but there is some humidity here lol--