January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[GreyHat]

None of theGFS will happen and that to ar as models are having hard time 3 days out. Those temps are fun to look at another joke.

I only care about tomorrow through Sunday for my drive to Eagles Mere and home Sunday.

Tomorrow there expected. 25" of rain.

 

[Amped]

Widespread > 12" east of Colorado and south of 42N rarely happens, but the GFS loves to show it. 

[CAPE]

18z GEFS for Wed night into Thurs- a half inch or so- plus the next "event"(my storm).

For the snow map freaks- Taking it out further to include the @NorthArlington101storm(not likely correct ofc)

 

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

A foot of snow then how much sleet? Lol

I'll be out at the cabin that time period.  50" of snow...I'd be snowed in until April.  

[MDScienceTeacher]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

what in the world

this is cm right?

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

this is cm right?

Did you know we suck at snow?

[SnowenOutThere]

I think this is the single most ridiculous snow map I have seen for pretty much anywhere nearby. Would need to make a drive up to see 90 inches of snow. 

[anotherman]

I think this is the single most ridiculous snow map I have seen for pretty much anywhere nearby. Would need to make a drive up to see 90 inches of snow. 

And it will be gone at 0z.

[VA Mad Man]

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I think this is the single most ridiculous snow map I have seen for pretty much anywhere nearby. Would need to make a drive up to see 90 inches of snow. 

67" at Deep Creek? Jesus.

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, anotherman said:

And it will be gone at 0z.

It will double. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I think this is the single most ridiculous snow map I have seen for pretty much anywhere nearby. Would need to make a drive up to see 90 inches of snow. 

I know you know there is zero chance this verifies. Next run the most snow you will probably see anywhere on that map will be a foot or so- Alleghany front and up near the lakes.

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, anotherman said:

And it will be gone at 0z.

What if it isn't?

[aldie 22]

Just now, CAPE said:

I know you know there is zero chance this verifies. Next run the most snow you will probably see anywhere on that map will be a foot or so- Alleghany front and up near the lakes.

What if it isn't?

[anotherman]

What if it isn't?

That would be great, but that is unlikely. It’s almost like Ji hacked into the GFS. Maybe he can make all the runs do this.

[MDScienceTeacher]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Did you know we suck at snow?

 

#BigOnesAreSniffedOutEarly

[Solution Man]

44 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

None of theGFS will happen and that to ar as models are having hard time 3 days out. Those temps are fun to look at another joke.

I only care about tomorrow through Sunday for my drive to Eagles Mere and home Sunday.

Tomorrow there expected. 25" of rain.

 

When u drive to Eagle Mere, can you take a left turn and head where there is no internet or thoughts of fiber optic for the next 25 years?

[Terpeast]

Craziest snow map I’ve ever seen, and in no way is this gonna verify. Goofus run 

[Weather Will]

WB latest EPS extended almost takes us through the end of February....looks good!

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I know you know there is zero chance this verifies. Next run the most snow you will probably see anywhere on that map will be a foot or so- Alleghany front and up near the lakes.

Next run will be a cutter.  Thats how we roll. Then the next system follows the boundary pressing S and hits the Carolinas while we smoke cirrus. I kind of mean that jokingly BUT dont tell me that isnt a common way we fail in this kind of setup in a Nina ie cutter then squasher.

 

[aldie 22]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Craziest snow map I’ve ever seen, and in no way is this gonna verify. Goofus run 

What if it does?

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

 

#BigOnesAreSniffedOutEarly

#SilentButDeadly

Wait, what are we sniffing again? Besides glue.

[Paleocene]

Sign me up for the day after tomorrow run of the gfs. My friends in Pittsburgh will have to tunnel out

[CAPE]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

What if it isn't?

 

I guess I would be mildly surprised.

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Craziest snow map I’ve ever seen, and in no way is this gonna verify. Goofus run 

What about this sounding? I mean could you even imagine the ground truth of a saturated DGZ that large with lift throughout it?

[bncho]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

What about this sounding? I mean could you even imagine the ground truth of a saturated DGZ that large with lift throughout it?

4" per hour rates

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

What about this sounding? I mean could you even imagine the ground truth of a saturated DGZ that large with lift throughout it?

I imagine that’d be like PD1 in ‘79. It’s famous for its rates. I hope I see this in my lifetime. 

[SnowenOutThere]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I know you know there is zero chance this verifies. Next run the most snow you will probably see anywhere on that map will be a foot or so- Alleghany front and up near the lakes.

I dunno man you should consult the big ones are locked in early chart.

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Next run will be a cutter.  Thats how we roll. Then the next system follows the boundary pressing S and hits the Carolinas while we smoke cirrus. I kind of mean that jokingly BUT dont tell me that isnt a common way we fail in this kind of setup in a Nina ie cutter then squasher.

 

It's not how we roll.. its how deterministic guidance rolls at long range. Volatile as fuck.

[bncho]

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I dunno man you should consult the big ones are locked in early chart.

"Bigness" is the most esoteric meterology term. Not even Ji could understand what that means.

[Ji]

outside of February last year,

the last week of January has been the best big snow signal i have seen in a few years

https://x.com/VintageFB/status/2011062949734203547?s=20