January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

This shit is depressing, ngl.  But we all know it's gonna keep changing.

What happened to the southern part of the storm

[TSSN+]

Just now, Ji said:

What happened to the southern part of the storm

The south ceeded. 

[mitchnick]

The aeard for the most impressive east coast trough goes to the GGEM. No snow for us, but an incredibly shaped trough nonetheless. 

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

I swear the pre-2018 Euro version was better than any model now, including the current Euro.

Statistics show that globally, model skill continues to improve although with a diminishing slope.  I suspect that a much of the perception in reduced winter performance is a result of the essentially decade long quasi La Nina base state with NS domination, which is inherently more chaotical and more difficult to predict.  If you tried to used the 2016 Euro today, I bet it would be notably inferior to the modern Euro.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Statistics show that globally, model skill continues to improve although with a diminishing slope.  I suspect that a much of the perception in reduced winter performance is a result of the essentially decade long quasi La Nina base state with NS domination, which is inherently more chaotical and more difficult to predict.  If you tried to used the 2016 Euro today, I bet it would be notably inferior to the modern Euro.

They base those stats on 500mb. Even if the 500mb progs are better, the surface predictions are no better to worse imby. Right or wrong, nobody will convince me otherwise. 

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The aeard for the most impressive east coast trough goes to the GGEM. No snow for us, but an incredibly shaped trough nonetheless. 

CMC never showed potential in this system. First time it might be right since Rosa Parks refused to give up her bus seat. 

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

CMC never showed potential in this system. First time it might be right since Rosa Parks refused to give up her bus seat. 

I know. I was just commenting on the trough.

Otoh, look at the Canadian 168hrs map.

[Ji]

To all those who yelled and cursed me because you all said I was too negative

Have a good night

[Ji]

I know. I was just commenting on the trough.
Otoh, look at the Canadian 168hrs map.

It’s another clipper. Yay

[bncho]

Just now, Ji said:

To all those who yelled and cursed me because you all said I was too negative

Have a good night

we don't yell and curse at you because you're negative, we yell and curse at you because you're annoying.

good night to you as well

[mitchnick]

Just now, Ji said:

To all those who yelled and cursed me because you all said I was too negative

Have a good night

You left your glove!

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

You left your glove!

His glove is microscopic, how did you see it?. 

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

It’s another clipper. Yay

Don’t know what that is but it’s NOT a clipper by any respectable clippers definition. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

It’s another clipper. Yay

No, Miller B I'd gladly take.

 

[mitchnick]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Don’t know what that is but it’s NOT a clipper by any respectable clippers definition. 

The Ukie had a very similar 5H vort on its 168hrs map. Let's see what the 0z run looks like.

[Amped]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The Ukie had a very similar 5H vort on its 168hrs map. Let's see what the 0z run looks like.

So close, it nails SE VA and southern MD. Plenty of time to will it north.

[mitchnick]

GfsAI has a 6-10" snow around the 23rd-24th fwiw. It's something.  Lol

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

GfsAI has a 6-10" snow around the 23rd-24th fwiw. It's something.  Lol

I'm looking more at the pattern change/flow there....as someone else stated earlier maybe we can see how we do with more west-east as opposed to all the waves diving in.

[jayyy]

I'm looking more at the pattern change/flow there....as someone else stated earlier maybe we can see how we do with more west-east as opposed to all the waves diving in.

Been a long while since we’ve had an organized southern stream low run move across the south and run into an established cold dome. Simple overrunning setups work well here. Much rather a bowl pattern with an active STJ and cold air available to the north than have to rely on perfectly timed phasing, perfect ULL passes and unicorn farts.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

0z EPS at 360hr is continuing to show a favorable N. Hemisphere pattern for cold, and possibly snow the last few days of January. I like this +PNA in the N. Pacific (which is something we have not seen much of in the last 10 years) And -AO all the way up north. 

[mitchnick]

EPS really high on 2nd half of the forecast period. Top map is snowfall at 180hrs and bottom map 360hrs. 

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

EPS really high on 2nd half of the forecast period. Top map is snowfall at 180hrs and bottom map 360hrs. 

 

[WxUSAF]

It ain’t much, but euro had something for the cape storm? Like dusting -1”? 

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

 

Go back to sleep. You have 180 hours to rest. Lol

By the way, Gefs and Geps are similar.

[EstorilM]

What’s happening around the 22nd to 25th? 
 

Going skiing for the first time in 10+ years with some friends for the weekend, it would be awesome if we got some snow (it’s just Wisp lol, so deep creek md area.)

I keep seeing some stuff popping up in the long-range for that period.
 

More than half of my ski trips (only every 4ish years before this time) had some big snows those weekends. 
 

How’s that for an analog? 

[EstorilM]

7 hours ago, mitchnick said:

GfsAI has a 6-10" snow around the 23rd-24th fwiw. It's something.  Lol

Can you post? I know it’s a clown map but again, that’s when I’m going skiing so.. maybe I can needlessly hype up the crew lol. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

It ain’t much, but euro had something for the cape storm? Like dusting -1”? 

That's about right, with a bit more in eastern NC and the Gulf Coast states lol. Need some changes upstairs or this is gonna be at best a glancing blow. Surface low pressure forms offshore.

 

[clskinsfan]

Cant be too discouraged with this mornings gfs run. Plenty of chances are coming over the next couple of weeks.

[CAPE]

59 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That's about right, with a bit more in eastern NC and the Gulf Coast states lol. Need some changes upstairs or this is gonna be at best a glancing blow. Surface low pressure forms offshore.

 

6z GEFS suggests  1-2" for a good chunk of the area for "my" storm.

[anotherman]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Cant be too discouraged with this mornings gfs run. Plenty of chances are coming over the next couple of weeks.

We are in the grieving phase.  Damn you GFS!