Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 This shit is depressing, ngl. But we all know it's gonna keep changing.What happened to the southern part of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, Ji said: What happened to the southern part of the storm The south ceeded. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The aeard for the most impressive east coast trough goes to the GGEM. No snow for us, but an incredibly shaped trough nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: I swear the pre-2018 Euro version was better than any model now, including the current Euro. Statistics show that globally, model skill continues to improve although with a diminishing slope. I suspect that a much of the perception in reduced winter performance is a result of the essentially decade long quasi La Nina base state with NS domination, which is inherently more chaotical and more difficult to predict. If you tried to used the 2016 Euro today, I bet it would be notably inferior to the modern Euro. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Statistics show that globally, model skill continues to improve although with a diminishing slope. I suspect that a much of the perception in reduced winter performance is a result of the essentially decade long quasi La Nina base state with NS domination, which is inherently more chaotical and more difficult to predict. If you tried to used the 2016 Euro today, I bet it would be notably inferior to the modern Euro. They base those stats on 500mb. Even if the 500mb progs are better, the surface predictions are no better to worse imby. Right or wrong, nobody will convince me otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: The aeard for the most impressive east coast trough goes to the GGEM. No snow for us, but an incredibly shaped trough nonetheless. CMC never showed potential in this system. First time it might be right since Rosa Parks refused to give up her bus seat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: CMC never showed potential in this system. First time it might be right since Rosa Parks refused to give up her bus seat. I know. I was just commenting on the trough. Otoh, look at the Canadian 168hrs map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 To all those who yelled and cursed me because you all said I was too negative Have a good night 4 4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I know. I was just commenting on the trough. Otoh, look at the Canadian 168hrs map.It’s another clipper. Yay 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, Ji said: To all those who yelled and cursed me because you all said I was too negative Have a good night we don't yell and curse at you because you're negative, we yell and curse at you because you're annoying. good night to you as well 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, Ji said: To all those who yelled and cursed me because you all said I was too negative Have a good night You left your glove! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: You left your glove! His glove is microscopic, how did you see it?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Ji said: It’s another clipper. Yay Don’t know what that is but it’s NOT a clipper by any respectable clippers definition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Ji said: It’s another clipper. Yay No, Miller B I'd gladly take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Don’t know what that is but it’s NOT a clipper by any respectable clippers definition. The Ukie had a very similar 5H vort on its 168hrs map. Let's see what the 0z run looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: The Ukie had a very similar 5H vort on its 168hrs map. Let's see what the 0z run looks like. So close, it nails SE VA and southern MD. Plenty of time to will it north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 GfsAI has a 6-10" snow around the 23rd-24th fwiw. It's something. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: GfsAI has a 6-10" snow around the 23rd-24th fwiw. It's something. Lol I'm looking more at the pattern change/flow there....as someone else stated earlier maybe we can see how we do with more west-east as opposed to all the waves diving in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I'm looking more at the pattern change/flow there....as someone else stated earlier maybe we can see how we do with more west-east as opposed to all the waves diving in.Been a long while since we’ve had an organized southern stream low run move across the south and run into an established cold dome. Simple overrunning setups work well here. Much rather a bowl pattern with an active STJ and cold air available to the north than have to rely on perfectly timed phasing, perfect ULL passes and unicorn farts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 0z EPS at 360hr is continuing to show a favorable N. Hemisphere pattern for cold, and possibly snow the last few days of January. I like this +PNA in the N. Pacific (which is something we have not seen much of in the last 10 years) And -AO all the way up north. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 EPS really high on 2nd half of the forecast period. Top map is snowfall at 180hrs and bottom map 360hrs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: EPS really high on 2nd half of the forecast period. Top map is snowfall at 180hrs and bottom map 360hrs. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 It ain’t much, but euro had something for the cape storm? Like dusting -1”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Go back to sleep. You have 180 hours to rest. Lol By the way, Gefs and Geps are similar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EstorilM Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 What’s happening around the 22nd to 25th? Going skiing for the first time in 10+ years with some friends for the weekend, it would be awesome if we got some snow (it’s just Wisp lol, so deep creek md area.) I keep seeing some stuff popping up in the long-range for that period. More than half of my ski trips (only every 4ish years before this time) had some big snows those weekends. How’s that for an analog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EstorilM Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 7 hours ago, mitchnick said: GfsAI has a 6-10" snow around the 23rd-24th fwiw. It's something. Lol Can you post? I know it’s a clown map but again, that’s when I’m going skiing so.. maybe I can needlessly hype up the crew lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: It ain’t much, but euro had something for the cape storm? Like dusting -1”? That's about right, with a bit more in eastern NC and the Gulf Coast states lol. Need some changes upstairs or this is gonna be at best a glancing blow. Surface low pressure forms offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Cant be too discouraged with this mornings gfs run. Plenty of chances are coming over the next couple of weeks. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 59 minutes ago, CAPE said: That's about right, with a bit more in eastern NC and the Gulf Coast states lol. Need some changes upstairs or this is gonna be at best a glancing blow. Surface low pressure forms offshore. 6z GEFS suggests 1-2" for a good chunk of the area for "my" storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Cant be too discouraged with this mornings gfs run. Plenty of chances are coming over the next couple of weeks. We are in the grieving phase. Damn you GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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