January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[nj2va]

4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Would get some insane upslope worth a trip out to WV

I’ve been interested in that aspect of this for sure, especially over the holiday weekend. Great timing for the ski resorts if that played out - but verbatim that’s a legit setup for upslope with the trough and energy. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, Heisy said:

Probably the euro just overamping things at this range/it took too long to get its act together so we lose all the confluence by time it’s turning corner. All 3 OP models and their ensembles have something for this time frame so at least it’s track worthy.


.

Almost never get all three models on the same page unless inside day 3 maybe. Like for once can they all agree? Grrr

[Solution Man]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I have nothing to add regarding any of the specific threats, they are all too far out for me to waste time on run to run permutations.  But my general thoughts regarding the overall pattern is that it's been pretty rare for us to time up a good h5 pattern with our snowiest climo period (which is by far mid Jan to mid Feb).  One of our problems, among many, over the last 10 years as been that our best chances for snow have come outside that period.  We've been fighting for scraps along the edges of the cold season in many years.  Right now the pattern across all guidance for the second half of January looks very favorable.  It's supported by tropical forcing.  If we get an extended cold pattern from mid January into Feb I'll take my chances.  It won't help us with the STJ, we're going to have to deal with phasing and NS issues and it will still be a struggle, but one we have a much better chance of winning if we get a good pattern timed up during our snowiest climo period.  

Key takeaway=favorable

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I’ve been interested in that aspect of this for sure, especially over the holiday weekend. Great timing for the ski resorts if that played out - but verbatim that’s a legit setup for upslope with the trough and energy. 

Next Sunday would be a great day to spend at wisp

[winter_warlock]

For the storm on the 18-19th.  It's 9 days out so I'm not worried right now about thermal profiles or rain snow lines. At the time I'm just glad models are showing the storm.  I mean come on folks do any of us really wanna be in the bullseye 200+hours out??? Lol I know I don't because EVERY time I been in the bullseye 200 hours out I've NEVER capitalized

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

Man this is sooo close to being  a HECS for us !!

Yes the entire I-95 corridor. 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Yes the entire I-95 corridor. 

Yessir!!!!

[soadforecasterx]

Seems like Euro moving away from the idea of the first storm but nice amount of members have coastal off the coast for the second storm. 

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

Seems like Euro moving away from the idea of the first storm but nice amount of members have coastal off the coast for the second storm. 

Still small support. But ya starting to feel like that system might slide se but we will see.

 

[Kevin Reilly]

43 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Rides right along and inside the coast.  Rain all up the east coast 

lol ehhh Euro too far west and GFS too far east split the difference Boom!!! We’ve done this before welcome to February 11th 1983!

[TSSN+]

EPS not supporting the cutter either 

 

[stormy]

This puzzle will have many moving parts, but, as currently  depicted, the 95 corridor probably does better than western areas for the 18th and 19th.

I don't like complication.

[pazzo83]

throwback DT post 

 

[stormy]

9 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

throwback DT post 

 

I could get enthusiastic about this.

[Eskimo Joe]

With the EPS,GEPS, and GEFS all showing a coastal or out to sea solution, I would think a cutter is probably off the table at this point.

[mitchnick]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

With the EPS,GEPS, and GEFS all showing a coastal or out to sea solution, I would think a cutter is probably off the table at this point.

New to the area, ehh?

Scraff can give you the name of the drinking holes if ur interested, I'm sure.

[pazzo83]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

With the EPS,GEPS, and GEFS all showing a coastal or out to sea solution, I would think a cutter is probably off the table at this point.

when's the last time we really had a cutter go up the spine of the Apps like old times?  Start off as heavy snow bc of CAD, turn into heavy rain.  Temps shoot up to 60+ or whatever.  Thunderstorms.  Cleveland or Detroit get like a foot. Brutal cold on the backside.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

when's the last time we really had a cutter go up the spine of the Apps like old times?

Feb 2007?

[pazzo83]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Feb 2007?

right?  feel like it's been a minute.

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

With the EPS,GEPS, and GEFS all showing a coastal or out to sea solution, I would think a cutter is probably off the table at this point.

lol, get a load of this guy.  When did you move here, last night?

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

lol, get a load of this guy.  When did you move here, last night?

These youngsters will never learn 

[TSSN+]

12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

With the EPS,GEPS, and GEFS all showing a coastal or out to sea solution, I would think a cutter is probably off the table at this point.

At day 10? Nothing is off the table. 

[Ji]

the EPS snow mean map got depleted again. Last year it was showing 8-12 inches

[psuhoffman]

As long as the AO remains negative and the pacific ridge remains displaced north (no crazy ridge just north of Hawaii) we will continue to have chances and I see no signs of either of those things flipping yet 

[WxUSAF]

17 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

when's the last time we really had a cutter go up the spine of the Apps like old times?  Start off as heavy snow bc of CAD, turn into heavy rain.  Temps shoot up to 60+ or whatever.  Thunderstorms.  Cleveland or Detroit get like a foot. Brutal cold on the backside.

MLK storm in January 2022 was sorta like that. Was low teens the morning it started, got a couple inches of snow, mixed, turned to heavy rain. No thunder that I recall. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

the EPS snow mean map got depleted again. Last year it was showing 8-12 inches

Most of that was from threats inside day 7. You won’t see a mean like that from a pattern that’s mostly day 7+

[Terpeast]

Been quiet here not because I’m not excited about the threats, just been busy with family and work. 

I think this is one of those things where we won’t know what will happen until 48 hours or less till onset. 

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Been quiet here not because I’m not excited about the threats, just been busy with family and work. 

I think this is one of those things where we won’t know what will happen until 48 hours or less till onset. 

Dude, don't worry about it. You have a son and wife to take care of. Relax!

[bncho]

1/15-16 is still on the table but we need lots of things to go right for us. IMO the CAPE timeframe is the better look, and CPC agrees.

[dallen7908]

Encouraging 3-4 week outlook. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/