January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

I’m really hoping we get that hit in the next 8-10 days or I’m going to lose it reading all these posts. 

Stick with me. I’ll take you to the promised land

[Ji]

I hope this ain’t the promised land

[ravensrule]

Just now, Ji said:

I hope this ain’t the promised land

I’m no longer sticking with you. 

[Blizzard of 93]

The best part about 0z so far for the 15th is that both the GFS & Canadian have an organized low that brings snow to the region. The last few days have shown a random run here or there that have looked interesting, but tonight it’s good  to see both models with a decent system that snows on us.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Long range is so warm on the GFS because of +NAO

Just when we change the Pacific.. we've had, Sept-Dec, 4 straight months of <-0.65 monthly NAO so let's see if it does phase shift. 

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Long range is so warm on the GFS because of +NAO

Just when we change the Pacific.. we've had, Sept-Dec, 4 straight months of <-0.65 monthly NAO so let's see if it does phase shift. 

Even I'm not worried about the operational Gfs at the end of its run as ensembles are not warm. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Even I'm not worried about the operational Gfs at the end of its run as ensembles are not warm. 

Sometimes the OP will be the first to show an extreme/new solution, and a few days later the ensembles will trend toward it. We really need that -EPO ridge to hold strong and not start to phase out/weaken as we get closer. 

[stormtracker]

Euro not biting on the first potential.  

[mitchnick]

19 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Euro not biting on ANY potential.  

Fixed

[mitchnick]

25 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Sometimes the OP will be the first to show an extreme/new solution, and a few days later the ensembles will trend toward it. We really need that -EPO ridge to hold strong and not start to phase out/weaken as we get closer. 

I agree on the first part, but none of the ensembles are going truly warm. If it changes, so be it.

[Ruin]

most likely will be colder with the storm bringing down cold air north west.

[Ji]

Big jump

[Stormchaserchuck1]

These are strong colors for a 360hr ensemble mean. Those are -20F anomalies in Canada

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

Big jump

More so on Pivotal 

[mitchnick]

It may be the Geps, but that's actually pretty!

[Terpeast]

SPV looks like it will tighten up at the end of the month or early Feb. That means we really need to score in the last 2 weeks of Jan to get anywhere near climo. 

My snowfall contest prediction is only about 50-60% of climo, and even that is iffy. Should reach that with the shots the models are taking at us, but climo? We need a big one to get there.

[Ji]

SPV looks like it will tighten up at the end of the month or early Feb. That means we really need to score in the last 2 weeks of Jan to get anywhere near climo. 
My snowfall contest prediction is only about 50-60% of climo, and even that is iffy. Should reach that with the shots the models are taking at us, but climo? We need a big one to get there.

Could that be negated by mjo phase 8 or 1?

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Could that be negated by mjo phase 8 or 1?

I do not believe so.

[Chris78]

40 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

SPV looks like it will tighten up at the end of the month or early Feb. That means we really need to score in the last 2 weeks of Jan to get anywhere near climo. 

My snowfall contest prediction is only about 50-60% of climo, and even that is iffy. Should reach that with the shots the models are taking at us, but climo? We need a big one to get there.

I changed my contest number at the end of the deadline I should of stuck with the dreadful ones I had initially lol. 

Always get wrapped up in the hype as the season draws closer. Damn it.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Anyone know why the Physical Sciences Division stopped updating ssts? Is this the end for it? https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, BTRWx&#x27;s Thanks Giving said:

Anyone know why the Physical Sciences Division stopped updating ssts? Is this the end for it? https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml

You can get SSTA maps and figures here. Use the Oisst instead of CRW under the "Option" as it's more accurate. 

https://cyclonicwx.com/sst/

[Weather Will]

Let me get this straight: So for a major east coast snow storm we need: -AO, +PNA, -NAO, -WPO, -EPO, weak SPV or SW, MJO in phases 1-3, low sun angle during the day, Modoki El Niño SST in Pacific and below normal in Atlantic to keep SER in check, and all cows farting SE in the upper Midwest to push down enough cold air.  At the same time at the surface, we need an upper level low in the TN valley, an arctic High over Quebec, and a surface low tracking NNE off of Hatteras....oh and a truckload of luck.   What am I missing!!!?

[Ji]

Let me get this straight: So for a major east coast snow storm we need: -AO, +PNA, -NAO, -WPO, -EPO, weak SPV or SW, MJO in phases 1-3, low sun angle during the day, Modoki El Niño SST in Pacific and below normal in Atlantic to keep SER in check, and all cows farting SE in the upper Midwest to push down enough cold air.  At the same time at the surface, we need an upper level low in the TN valley, an arctic High over Quebec, and a surface low tracking NNE off of Hatteras....oh and a truckload of luck.   What am I missing!!!?

All those things

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Let me get this straight: So for a major east coast snow storm we need: -AO, +PNA, -NAO, -WPO, -EPO, weak SPV or SW, MJO in phases 1-3, low sun angle during the day, Modoki El Niño SST in Pacific and below normal in Atlantic to keep SER in check, and all cows farting SE in the upper Midwest to push down enough cold air.  At the same time at the surface, we need an upper level low in the TN valley, an arctic High over Quebec, and a surface low tracking NNE off of Hatteras....oh and a truckload of luck.   What am I missing!!!?

lol KUs don't grow on trees. of course you need all of those factors in place for something that should happen once a decade

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol KUs don't grow on trees. of course you need all of those factors in place for something that should happen once a decade

The good news is, it’s been a decade since 2016. Let’s party. 

[aldie 22]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

SPV looks like it will tighten up at the end of the month or early Feb. That means we really need to score in the last 2 weeks of Jan to get anywhere near climo. 

My snowfall contest prediction is only about 50-60% of climo, and even that is iffy. Should reach that with the shots the models are taking at us, but climo? We need a big one to get there.

Dang thanks chicken little 

[Eskimo Joe]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Let me get this straight: So for a major east coast snow storm we need: -AO, +PNA, -NAO, -WPO, -EPO, weak SPV or SW, MJO in phases 1-3, low sun angle during the day, Modoki El Niño SST in Pacific and below normal in Atlantic to keep SER in check, and all cows farting SE in the upper Midwest to push down enough cold air.  At the same time at the surface, we need an upper level low in the TN valley, an arctic High over Quebec, and a surface low tracking NNE off of Hatteras....oh and a truckload of luck.   What am I missing!!!?

Yes. To get a Major East Coast Storm, you need multiple ingredients to align. It's like cooking - a phenomenal meal needs to come together almost perfectly.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Dang thanks chicken little 

Well I hope I’m wrong about a torch Feb. That was my thinking all along and it hasn’t really changed

[87storms]

12 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Let me get this straight: So for a major east coast snow storm we need: -AO, +PNA, -NAO, -WPO, -EPO, weak SPV or SW, MJO in phases 1-3, low sun angle during the day, Modoki El Niño SST in Pacific and below normal in Atlantic to keep SER in check, and all cows farting SE in the upper Midwest to push down enough cold air.  At the same time at the surface, we need an upper level low in the TN valley, an arctic High over Quebec, and a surface low tracking NNE off of Hatteras....oh and a truckload of luck.   What am I missing!!!?

The Weekend Rule

[Alfoman]

24 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Let me get this straight: So for a major east coast snow storm we need: -AO, +PNA, -NAO, -WPO, -EPO, weak SPV or SW, MJO in phases 1-3, low sun angle during the day, Modoki El Niño SST in Pacific and below normal in Atlantic to keep SER in check, and all cows farting SE in the upper Midwest to push down enough cold air.  At the same time at the surface, we need an upper level low in the TN valley, an arctic High over Quebec, and a surface low tracking NNE off of Hatteras....oh and a truckload of luck.   What am I missing!!!?

You're missing PDO cycle in the right part of its 6-10 year cycle and being in a solar minimum! Oh and for Ji to approve of the risk from the time it shows up 384 hrs out on the OP GFS...easy stuff to be honest?