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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowfan
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6 minutes ago, Ji said:

not true at all. I would take a 6-10

The impatient, ungrateful part of me has a minimum of a 6-10” snowstorm as a requirement, but it’s January and it should feel like winter, so I’ll take 2-4”+.  I’m done with cartoppers, though. They’re cute in winters that are legit, but not as the primary theme.

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7 minutes ago, Ruin said:

How does this model have rain north west of the snow lol

No high pressure to the north to impart better cold air advection. Heavier precip rates overcome a marginal profile and turn precip to frozen, elsewhere, it's rain. Very believable.

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53 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@mitchnick

@Ji

The ensembles are starting to beef up their snow amounts today for the last 10 days of their runs.

12z Canadian ensemble got it started.

18z GEFS & 18z AI EPS really ramped up.

Hopefully this continues to build up as most of the potential is from day 9 onward.

IMG_1434.png

IMG_1435.png

IMG_1436.png

 That is nice to see. Just wish it wasn't 15 days out lol 

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4 hours ago, Ji said:

its so infuriating  when these upper level lows that should go east---go west and get stuck on model runs

1768845600-F55v4F37iFo.png

Classic holding energy back out west.  As we know models are horrible at getting these right.  Is it pieces coming east or the whole bundle of energy the effects here are quite different. 

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