January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Nah.  But at least you recognize potential from what you see.

i hope. this thing over NY looks awfully suppressive

[bncho]

January 15th has been trending better slowly. The h5 wave is deeper and slower, exactly what we want.

[Ji]

man---for a crap model....the GFS runs take forever. The euro finishes in 45 minutes. the GFS needs almost 2 hours to run smh. Who programmed this pos?

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

man---for a crap model....the GFS runs take forever. The euro finishes in 45 minutes. the GFS needs almost 2 hours to run smh. Who programmed this pos?

No need to keep looking.

SW gets stuck out west

[Ji]

its so infuriating  when these upper level lows that should go east---go west and get stuck on model runs

[Ji]

Just now, stormtracker said:

No need to keep looking.

SW gets stuck out west

probably my least favorite thing to see on the model. It makes me so mad lol

[bncho]

Just now, Ji said:

probably my least favorite thing to see on the model. It makes me so mad lol

everything that doesn't show a foot of snow over your house makes you so mad lol

[Ji]

Please get us to an El nino winter. I am so tired of tracking la nina stinkers

[Ji]

Just now, bncho said:

everything that doesn't show a foot of snow over your house makes you so mad lol

not true at all. I would take a 6-10

[Ji]

the spire is the modern day version of the Cras

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

everything that doesn't show a foot of snow over your house makes you so mad lol

Hey its an op run and only 13 days out. It must be right. Ji should be pissed.

[87storms]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

not true at all. I would take a 6-10

The impatient, ungrateful part of me has a minimum of a 6-10” snowstorm as a requirement, but it’s January and it should feel like winter, so I’ll take 2-4”+.  I’m done with cartoppers, though. They’re cute in winters that are legit, but not as the primary theme.

[winter_warlock]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

the spire is the modern day version of the Cras

What country is the spire model from?? Lol 

[Scraff]

Happy hour started a while ago for me, but how we looking!? @bncho Just saying—every time I see you post, I think bitchin nachos for dinner. I just can’t unsee it and get past it.  

[Ji]

anyone remember when tomber burg guessed alot of snow for NYC in this own twitter January snowfall contest?

[mitchnick]

Just now, Ji said:

anyone remember when tomber burg guessed alot of snow for NYC in this own twitter January snowfall contest?

I thought he was dead!

[Ji]

[wxdude64]

47 minutes ago, Ji said:

its so infuriating  when these upper level lows that should go east---go west and get stuck on model runs

My son in Park City will be thrilled!

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

I am ready to call the Jan 20-21 the Ji storm. The Cape storm was Jan 15-16

You cancelled winter. You dont get a storm.

[ravensrule]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

not true at all. I would take a 6-10

You always take what you don’t have. 

[Ruin]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

the spire is the modern day version of the Cras

How does this model have rain north west of the snow lol

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, Ruin said:

How does this model have rain north west of the snow lol

I think it was last year or the year before, JB was hyping the spire when they first started showing it on WB.   Haven't heard him reference it since then...

[Eskimo Joe]

7 minutes ago, Ruin said:

How does this model have rain north west of the snow lol

No high pressure to the north to impart better cold air advection. Heavier precip rates overcome a marginal profile and turn precip to frozen, elsewhere, it's rain. Very believable.

[mitchnick]

Compared to the runs of the last 5 days+ of the Gefs, there's finally some life in the 18z snowfall total. I  didn't go into how or when. I'm looking for totals >1"!

[Blizzard of 93]

@mitchnick

@Ji

The ensembles are starting to beef up their snow amounts today for the last 10 days of their runs.

12z Canadian ensemble got it started.

18z GEFS & 18z AI EPS really ramped up.

Hopefully this continues to build up as most of the potential is from day 9 onward.

[Eskimo Joe]

3 hours ago, bncho said:

January 15th has been trending better slowly. The h5 wave is deeper and slower, exactly what we want.

Equally important is the western ridge trending stronger and sharper.

[Eskimo Joe]

Slightly reassuring to see the 18z suite of ensembles hold or beef up snowfall.

[winter_warlock]

15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Equally important is the western ridge trending stronger and sharper.

It's a beaut Clark!!!

[winter_warlock]

53 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@mitchnick

@Ji

The ensembles are starting to beef up their snow amounts today for the last 10 days of their runs.

12z Canadian ensemble got it started.

18z GEFS & 18z AI EPS really ramped up.

Hopefully this continues to build up as most of the potential is from day 9 onward.

 That is nice to see. Just wish it wasn't 15 days out lol 

[Kevin Reilly]

4 hours ago, Ji said:

its so infuriating  when these upper level lows that should go east---go west and get stuck on model runs

Classic holding energy back out west.  As we know models are horrible at getting these right.  Is it pieces coming east or the whole bundle of energy the effects here are quite different.