Terpeast Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It's been uncanny how several threats that look so promising while looking at 500mb end up just like that. Gfs had one last night. that's because the 500mb wave is positively tilted on that one. Need a neutral or neg tilt. But at this range it won't take much 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: that's because the 500mb wave is positively tilted on that one. Need a neutral or neg tilt. But at this range it won't take much I think the problem is that a lot of the snow fans here have an all or nothing mentality when it comes to patterns. If it's not going to show a 1996,2003,2016 level storm then into the garbage it goes as if that's our only way to get snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 9 minutes ago, Terpeast said: that's because the 500mb wave is positively tilted on that one. Need a neutral or neg tilt. But at this range it won't take much yea too many people think if there is a circle in the middle atlantic it has to mean big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 0z GFS (which popped the coastal) vs 12z Euro fail. Easier to see why each outcome did what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 its as bleak as it gets folks....this is the kind of stuff you would see in mid april 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I think we need to kick the can and focus on Jan 21st-37th paging @WEATHER53 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 4 minutes ago, Ji said: yea too many people think if there is a circle in the middle atlantic it has to mean big storm Nobody said that. The fact remains that we can't get anything to work without perfection, and there's no such thing as perfection in MA snowstorms outside of 1 every 12-15 years. I contend the general NW-->SE flow is the reason for storms failing to develop vs prior years and weak qpf output. If this doesn't change at some point, get used to ensemble progs the rest of the "cold enough to snow" season being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, Ji said: I think we need to kick the can and focus on Jan 21st-37th paging @WEATHER53 It’s best to never focus on days 1-15 and always hang hats on delayed fulfillment . Thanks for the invite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Nobody said that. The fact remains that we can't get anything to work without perfection, and there's no such thing as perfection in MA snowstorms outside of 1 every 12-15 years. I contend the general NW-->SE flow is the reason for storms failing to develop vs prior years and weak qpf output. If this doesn't change at some point, get used to ensemble progs the rest of the "cold enough to snow" season being right. Perfection is required for Miller B domination.. When a low comes up from Georgia and moves northeast like an A then very little perfection is needed. We don’t get As for almost 10 years now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 One other thing. This look of the Eps with the ridge to our south guarantees imho the closing off of Gulf moisture. Cold and dry. Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 12 minutes ago, Ji said: its as bleak as it gets folks....this is the kind of stuff you would see in mid april Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: I think this belongs in banter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 21 minutes ago, Ji said: I think we need to kick the can and focus on Jan 21st-37th paging @WEATHER53 The second half of January is gonna be rockin'! The last week of January is gonna be rockin'! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 26 minutes ago, mitchnick said: One other thing. This look of the Eps with the ridge to our south guarantees imho the closing off of Gulf moisture. Cold and dry. Meh Welcome to La Niña and the pattern for the last 6 months. Snoozefest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 How is this not producing? I guess if it’s going to, it needs to start showing some digital blue love by the 7 day out mark. So we have time, but it’s ticking fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 12 minutes ago, Scraff said: How is this not producing? I guess if it’s going to, it needs to start showing some digital blue love by the 7 day out mark. So we have time, but it’s ticking fast. How? It's a passage of a cold front after a period of decently AN temps that are slow to leave. Very little precip falls per the run before and after that 216hrs panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 19 minutes ago, mitchnick said: How? It's a passage of a cold front after a period of decently AN temps that are slow to leave. Very little precip falls per the run before and after that 216hrs panel. I didn’t dig deeper into it. It just looked like a good set up. Meh. Whatevs. It will snow again one day…I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Things look extremely bleak right now, but I have some hope for January 20-30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 What day should we come back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: What day should we come back? You come back Jan 15. Ji come back never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 11 minutes ago, Solution Man said: What day should we come back? Week of Jan 20th. If we don't have something plausible within 5 days of that, then it's probably game over for even hitting climo snowfall. It's going to be feast or famine during the upcoming favorable window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: Nobody said that. The fact remains that we can't get anything to work without perfection, and there's no such thing as perfection in MA snowstorms outside of 1 every 12-15 years. I contend the general NW-->SE flow is the reason for storms failing to develop vs prior years and weak qpf output. If this doesn't change at some point, get used to ensemble progs the rest of the "cold enough to snow" season being right. You are close. Too much NW - SE flow is a dry flow and discourages the pattern that we need with an active STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Week of Jan 20th. If we don't have something plausible within 5 days of that, then it's probably game over for even hitting climo snowfall. It's going to be feast or famine during the upcoming favorable window. This is useless CRAP on January 6. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 28 minutes ago, Ji said: Things look extremely bleak right now, but I have some hope for January 20-30 Bam's Michael Clark looking a bit exasperated it would seem. https://youtube.com/shorts/hr8jn5FdW9w?si=2uUi4VUJhE5GN8w- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Busy lately, but thought I would do my daily check in. I'll be checking out now. Enjoy! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: Busy lately, but thought I would do my daily check in. I'll be checking out now. Enjoy! no hope for us? Just in n out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, Ji said: no hope for us? Just in n out? See my post from yesterday. Still stands. Just tired of all the whinging. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 22 minutes ago, CAPE said: See my post from yesterday. Still stands. Just tired of all the whinging. Cue the grandpa Simpson door meme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I never understood the pattern delayed line because the same models that hinted at a pattern are the same ones not hinting at one so in reality there is no pattern change until there is one thus nothing is delayed. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts