January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It's been uncanny how several threats that look so promising while looking at 500mb end up just like that. Gfs had one last night.

that's because the 500mb wave is positively tilted on that one. Need a neutral or neg tilt. But at this range it won't take much

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

that's because the 500mb wave is positively tilted on that one. Need a neutral or neg tilt. But at this range it won't take much

I think the problem is that a lot of the snow fans here have an all or nothing mentality when it comes to patterns. If it's not going to show a 1996,2003,2016 level storm then into the garbage it goes as if that's our only way to get snow.

[Ji]

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

that's because the 500mb wave is positively tilted on that one. Need a neutral or neg tilt. But at this range it won't take much

yea too many people think if there is a circle in the middle atlantic it has to mean big storm

[bncho]

0z GFS (which popped the coastal) vs 12z Euro fail. Easier to see why each outcome did what.

[Ji]

its as bleak as it gets folks....this is the kind of stuff you would see in mid april

[Ji]

I think we need to kick the can and focus on Jan 21st-37th

paging @WEATHER53

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

yea too many people think if there is a circle in the middle atlantic it has to mean big storm

Nobody said that. The fact remains that we can't get anything to work without perfection, and there's no such thing as perfection in MA snowstorms outside of 1 every 12-15 years. I  contend the general NW-->SE flow is the reason for storms failing to develop vs prior years and weak qpf output.  If this doesn't change at some point, get used to ensemble progs the rest of the "cold enough to snow" season being right. 

[WEATHER53]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

I think we need to kick the can and focus on Jan 21st-37th

paging @WEATHER53

It’s best to never focus on days 1-15 and always hang hats on delayed fulfillment .

Thanks for the invite 

[WEATHER53]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Nobody said that. The fact remains that we can't get anything to work without perfection, and there's no such thing as perfection in MA snowstorms outside of 1 every 12-15 years. I  contend the general NW-->SE flow is the reason for storms failing to develop vs prior years and weak qpf output.  If this doesn't change at some point, get used to ensemble progs the rest of the "cold enough to snow" season being right. 

Perfection is required for Miller B domination..  When a low comes  up from Georgia and  moves northeast like an A then very little perfection is needed. We don’t get As for almost 10 years now 

[mitchnick]

One other thing.  This look of the Eps with the ridge to our south guarantees imho the closing off of Gulf moisture. Cold and dry. Meh

[JenkinsJinkies]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

its as bleak as it gets folks....this is the kind of stuff you would see in mid april

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I think this belongs in banter.

[IronTy]

21 minutes ago, Ji said:

I think we need to kick the can and focus on Jan 21st-37th

paging @WEATHER53

 

The second half of January is gonna be rockin'!

The last week of January is gonna be rockin'!

[TSSN+]

26 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

One other thing.  This look of the Eps with the ridge to our south guarantees imho the closing off of Gulf moisture. Cold and dry. Meh

Welcome to La Niña and the pattern for the last 6 months. Snoozefest 

[Scraff]

How is this not producing? I guess if it’s going to, it needs to start showing some digital blue love by the 7 day out mark. So we have time, but it’s ticking fast.
 

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, Scraff said:

How is this not producing? I guess if it’s going to, it needs to start showing some digital blue love by the 7 day out mark. So we have time, but it’s ticking fast.
 

How? It's a passage of a cold front after a period of decently AN temps that are slow to leave. Very little precip falls per the run before and after that 216hrs panel.

[Scraff]

19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

How? It's a passage of a cold front after a period of decently AN temps that are slow to leave. Very little precip falls per the run before and after that 216hrs panel.

I didn’t dig deeper into it. It just looked like a good set up. Meh. Whatevs. It will snow again one day…I think. 

[Ji]

Things look extremely bleak right now, but I have some hope for January 20-30

[Solution Man]

What day should we come back?

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

What day should we come back?

You come back Jan 15.

Ji come back never.

[Eskimo Joe]

11 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

What day should we come back?

Week of Jan 20th. If we don't have something plausible within 5 days of that, then it's probably game over for even hitting climo snowfall. It's going to be feast or famine during the upcoming favorable window.

 

 

[stormy]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Nobody said that. The fact remains that we can't get anything to work without perfection, and there's no such thing as perfection in MA snowstorms outside of 1 every 12-15 years. I  contend the general NW-->SE flow is the reason for storms failing to develop vs prior years and weak qpf output.  If this doesn't change at some point, get used to ensemble progs the rest of the "cold enough to snow" season being right. 

You are close.    Too much NW - SE flow is a dry flow and discourages the pattern that we need with an active STJ.

[stormy]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Week of Jan 20th. If we don't have something plausible within 5 days of that, then it's probably game over for even hitting climo snowfall. It's going to be feast or famine during the upcoming favorable window.

 

 

This is useless CRAP on January 6.

[mitchnick]

28 minutes ago, Ji said:

Things look extremely bleak right now, but I have some hope for January 20-30

Bam's Michael Clark looking a bit exasperated it would seem.

https://youtube.com/shorts/hr8jn5FdW9w?si=2uUi4VUJhE5GN8w-

 

[CAPE]

Busy lately, but thought I would do my daily check in. I'll be checking out now. Enjoy!

[Ji]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Busy lately, but thought I would do my daily check in. I'll be checking out now. Enjoy!

no hope for us? Just in n out?

[JenkinsJinkies]

[CAPE]

Just now, Ji said:

no hope for us? Just in n out?

See my post from yesterday. Still stands.

Just tired of all the whinging.

[Terpeast]

22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

See my post from yesterday. Still stands.

Just tired of all the whinging.

Cue the grandpa Simpson door meme.

[aldie 22]

I never understood the pattern delayed line because the same models that hinted at a pattern are the same ones not hinting at one so in reality there is no pattern change until there is one thus nothing is delayed.