January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Stormchaserchuck1]

A little rant on the PDO

In Fall 2024, the PDO hit its lowest monthly reading since the mid 1800s. That easily carried a <-1 state through last Winter. This July, it crushed last Fall's record, hitting -4.18, ensuring another <-1 PDO Winter, regardless of what unfolds in the H5 pattern. 

The PNA so far this Winter since Dec 1st, has been negative every single day. CPC has that continuing through the 1st week of January, and what was previously looking like a bounce positive mid-month is not looking so sure with todays long range models holding a N. Pacific ridge. 

+PNA is our best coastal low pattern. From the gulf of mexico, to maine, Miller A's and Miller B's, +PNA is the way to bomb low pressures on the east coast. 

When the PNA is negative, that's a coastal high pressure pattern. 

This year, going into December, we had 21 of the last 29 months being +PNA! Since the 23-24 El Nino turned to negative-ENSO we still had 17 of 25 months +PNA. It was looking like we could possibly see a +PNA Winter!

2018-2024 had the most -PNA February and March, for a 7 year period, by 140%! On all records, the highest 7-consecutive year anomaly was -NAO in January 1960's at +95dm.. then we hit +140dm for a 7-year period Feb-March -PNA 2018-2024. 

The PDO is in a decadal negative state, and it's really peaking right now. I was hoping after the 23-24 El Nino we would start moving away from that, but it looks like there is still long ways to go.. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

0z EPS is much cooler than the GEFS in the extended

[Ji]

0z EPS is much cooler than the GEFS in the extended

Here bro. Use this map. It dosent have a global warning agenda

[WxUSAF]

Maybe a blip, but 6z GEFS is a big change in a more positive direction for us. Much deeper -NAO/-AO and it keeps a trough in the east until the very end of the run, when it’s still a very workable gradient pattern. 

[Ji]

Gefs looks cold too

[mitchnick]

49 minutes ago, Ji said:

Here bro. Use this map. It dosent have a global warning agenda

TT is Celsius and Weather Bell is Fahrenheit, hence minor temp differences are accentuated on WB. 

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Maybe a blip, but 6z GEFS is a big change in a more positive direction for us. Much deeper -NAO/-AO and it keeps a trough in the east until the very end of the run, when it’s still a very workable gradient pattern. 

All 3 models have moved away from a SER at d15/16. That's why I don't get why anyone worries about the pattern depiction that far out, esp given how this has gone for months now. Any suggestion of protracted warmth is muted/ doesnt materialize.

[JenkinsJinkies]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

All 3 models have moved away from a SER at d15/16. That's why I don't get why anyone worries about the pattern depiction that far out, esp given how this has gone for months now. Any suggestion of protracted warmth is muted/ doesnt materialize.

The mega torch will show up again once the 25th is in range, mark my words.

[WxUSAF]

25 minutes ago, CAPE said:

All 3 models have moved away from a SER at d15/16. That's why I don't get why anyone worries about the pattern depiction that far out, esp given how this has gone for months now. Any suggestion of protracted warmth is muted/ doesnt materialize.

EPS got colder overnight as well. GFS digging troughs to Mexico City is gone. Just need some fantasy range storms to start popping again.

[WxUSAF]

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

BAM has pretty much cancelled the red flags too.

[bncho]

16 hours ago, bncho said:

This is actually a decently good observation. I’d urge caution with believing the models considering how poorly they’ve performed, especially with their warm bias.

Shown below are the GEFS and EPS forecast biases two weeks out over the last 90 days (courtesy of @GaWx). That’s all you need to see.

 

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Models have had such a bias for warm in the east in the medium-long range that it's stupid to believe anything they say regarding warmth in the E US until it's within D5 (and even then they can shift i.e. boxing day 2025).

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

 

That would shorten the torch to just 5 days instead of 7-10+ like previous runs were showing.  

[WxUSAF]

Couple close calls on euro AI D9+

[bncho]

lol no more torch jan 10 onwards

awful performance from the ensembles past d10 and look how it corrects in 48 hours

[Terpeast]

12 minutes ago, bncho said:

lol no more torch jan 10 onwards

awful performance from the ensembles past d10 and look how it corrects in 48 hours

Wow. 11-15 day model forecasts have been terrible this fall/winter. Terrible. 

[bncho]

The 12z Euro is pretty close to something for Jan 13-14. Too warm though for most places other than NYC and points NW, but it does flip over to snow on the back side for NW suburbs.

[MillvilleWx]

The theme to these “warm ups” at range has been to mute them or completely reverse course since August. We saw this so many times over the last half of 2025, and I imagine you’ll see this continue. I wasn’t worried about any extended warm up because of this premise. We’ll see a brief period of above normal before returning closer to normal and below normal at times. Timing waves and getting that prolonged SWFE look is what can be the ticket to getting frozen around here considering the nature of things. A few coastals will certainly be plausible by end of winter as well as wavelengths shorten into February. It’s always tricky around here, but if the North Atlantic cooperates, that increases our favor. I would not be sweating anything beyond D7 at this point. History is showing it will change and discrete threats could pop up inside 7 days with this type of volatility in NWP. 

[high risk]

23 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Wow. 11-15 day model forecasts have been terrible this fall/winter. Terrible. 

 

     I think that recent longer-range forecasting successes, part of the ever-improving state of NWP, have raised our expectations a bit too high.    We're not yet at the point where we can expect the Week 2 period to always be forecasted with skill, even for ensemble systems.

[Kay]

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

     I think that recent longer-range forecasting successes, part of the ever-improving state of NWP, have raised our expectations a bit too high.    We're not yet at the point where we can expect the Week 2 period to always be forecasted with skill, even for ensemble systems.

Great post, rational POV. Everyone needs to tattoo this on their brain 

[psuhoffman]

29 minutes ago, bncho said:

The 12z Euro is pretty close to something for Jan 13-14. Too warm though for most places other than NYC and points NW, but it does flip over to snow on the back side for NW suburbs.

Looks good to me 

[bncho]

^^Return of the King

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Looks good to me 

[mitchnick]

42 minutes ago, bncho said:

The 12z Euro is pretty close to something for Jan 13-14. Too warm though for most places other than NYC and points NW, but it does flip over to snow on the back side for NW suburbs.

That scenario and time frame has been showing up on one model, ensemble, or another for a day and a half or 2 day, so the "threat" looks legit. It would be nice to get multiple model/ensemble support, then hold it. Once at that point, we can get Jeb to start a winning thread.

[aldie 22]

53 minutes ago, bncho said:

The 12z Euro is pretty close to something for Jan 13-14. Too warm though for most places other than NYC and points NW, but it does flip over to snow on the back side for NW suburbs.

Looks good from my backyard 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Looks good from my backyard 

Have your neighbors installed an 8 foot fence yet?

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Have your neighbors installed an 8 foot fence yet?

Silly im only 6' tall

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Didnt he just cancel winter for the 3rd time a mere 2 days ago?

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

The 12z Euro is pretty close to something for Jan 13-14. Too warm though for most places other than NYC and points NW, but it does flip over to snow on the back side for NW suburbs.

Love this setup. Classic boundary SWFE sorta thing without diving deep into the 500mb maps. Hey @CAPEdoesnt this look like what we were discussing?

[Terpeast]

43 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

     I think that recent longer-range forecasting successes, part of the ever-improving state of NWP, have raised our expectations a bit too high.    We're not yet at the point where we can expect the Week 2 period to always be forecasted with skill, even for ensemble systems.

I apologize if I came off as model bashing in the general sense, that wasn't my intention and I can see that my statement was a bit unfair. We've seen incredible advances in modeling both physical and AI, and seeing 0.6-0.8 correlations in 500mb anomalies from 10+ days out is an incredible feat. I only meant that their performance have collectively taken a hit lately in the 11-15 day range especially in the past 5-6 months. In the grand scheme of things, on a global scale, they still perform better than 10+ years ago. But regionally, they have been struggling with the trough/ridge placements such that we're seeing wild swings in our forecasted sensible weather in our back yards. 

Again, sorry about that.