January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

Precip creeping northward each run. Problem is the temps are very marginal. The crappy pacific is winning over the NA, AS MODELED on the GFS/GEFS. We shall see.

[rjvanals]

Euro gets snow into DC on Saturday 

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, rjvanals said:

Euro gets snow into DC on Saturday 

Best run yet easily 

[Cobalt]

[Ji]

Best run yet easily 

Let’s keep it ticking. I don’t remember the last time we had a north friend to help us.

[CAPE]

Easy to see why the Euro has a more favorable outcome than the GFS looking upstairs-

[rjvanals]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Best run yet easily 

Low new Hudson Bay moves west enough for the precip to reach us 

[Ephesians2]

Sorry if this has already been posted here. 

[T. August]

Just now, CAPE said:

Easy to see why the Euro has a more favorable outcome than the GFS looking upstairs-

More negative tilt? Trying to get better lol

[TSSN+]

Just now, CAPE said:

Easy to see why the Euro has a more favorable outcome than the GFS looking upstairs-

Keep it going. Little more phase will blossom the qpf shield

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, T. August said:

More negative tilt? Trying to get better lol

Yes, and sharper, plus partial phasing. GFS is flatter and weaker with the surface low and doesnt draw in enough cold air because of the lack of interaction/sharpness with the shortwave.

[CAPE]

Who do we trust more here? Love those Brits.

[bncho]

Euro is actually pretty good lol

[Eskimo Joe]

18z Euro gets some kind of snow back to I-81 

 

 

[bncho]

IMO DC is a good spot to be in for this. Just far north such that mixing isn’t likely to be an issue, just far south such that they can get into that precip band.

[Terpeast]

When the models were showing a great pattern over the next 10 days and beyond a few days back, it was showing this system but it was way suppressed to the south because of the cold press. Now that the block is falling apart, the cold press isn't as much, allowing this system to come up north. Hopefully we still have enough cold air to snow if the precip comes up that far.

[bncho]

sign me up

[Ruin]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

When the models were showing a great pattern over the next 10 days and beyond a few days back, it was showing this system but it was way suppressed to the south because of the cold press. Now that the block is falling apart, the cold press isn't as much, allowing this system to come up north. Hopefully we still have enough cold air to snow if the precip comes up that far.

models that do temp guidance have been so wrong over the last 7 winters always show this historic cold for weeks turns out to be a bit below for a day or 2 

[TSSN+]

16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

18z Euro gets some kind of snow back to I-81 

 

 

Short on time? we still have plenty of time with the way these models are lol. 

[Terpeast]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Short on time? we still have plenty of time with the way these models are lol. 

Actually I agree with you. The NYC event trended north in the last day or so, putting the max just NE of the city instead of directly over and south of it.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, Ephesians2 said:

Sorry if this has already been posted here. 

And with the 1st of January projected to be very warm, they are going with a big pattern change for the 2nd half of the month:

 

PNA has been negative every day this Winter since Dec 1st. LR models have it going positive for the 2nd half of January:

If the CPC is right, it could actually get very cold Jan 20-30. 

[Eskimo Joe]

We're so close.

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

38 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

18z Euro gets some kind of snow back to I-81 

 

 

And thus the reason why writing off something 10+ days from now is ludicrous. Nina = short/medium range surprises quite frequently. Not saying this is a hit but those were some big ticket changes in under 36hrs.

[bncho]

hmmm

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

hmmm

Keep moving it a couple hundred miles north.

[SnowenOutThere]

47 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We're so close.

 

 

Watch this be a reverse Feb 20 type bust where we manage to get a phase of the NS and southern energy within 5 days of the event. 

[bncho]

FWIW the NAM replacement is a sleet storm up to DC

[stormtracker]

3 hours ago, Solution Man said:

@stormtrackerwhat’s your ETA

Friday. 11 am. DCA.  WINTER IS COMING THIS WEEKEND 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Watch this be a reverse Feb 20 type bust where we manage to get a phase of the NS and southern energy within 5 days of the event. 

Seriously looking at this possibility we need the NS to slow down in relation to the southern shortwave as right now it is outrunning our southern piece by a solid 12-24 hours. While obviously this would be a major change its not altogether impossible if pieces start moving this way by tomorrow morning. Additionally, our southern shortwave moving further north (which is the trend considering our block failing to form) would help in this process. Another thing to note is a small piece of energy detached from our shortwave out west which seems to help move it push the precip north and constructively interact with the NS. Looking at the recent Euro run (top) vs old run (bottom) this is quite clear to see.

Now that previous discussion was focused on salvaging this into a decent snowstorm. If instead we set our sights on a far more reasonable coating to 1inch storm we just need the Euro as it is to be right. Though, an interesting solution is the NAM. The NAM opts to have no NS interaction and instead brings a stronger southern vort north on its own. While this has the thermals shot (partially due to no cold push I assume) it manages to get a solid quarter inch of ice in the area. 

As for now all we can do is see which way the models evolve. Though, it wouldn't surprise me to see this creep north as @Terpeast mentioned with the blocking up north failing to materialize. 

[winter_warlock]

FWIW.  From DT..