CAPE Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 Precip creeping northward each run. Problem is the temps are very marginal. The crappy pacific is winning over the NA, AS MODELED on the GFS/GEFS. We shall see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 Euro gets snow into DC on Saturday 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 1 minute ago, rjvanals said: Euro gets snow into DC on Saturday Best run yet easily 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 Best run yet easily Let’s keep it ticking. I don’t remember the last time we had a north friend to help us. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 Easy to see why the Euro has a more favorable outcome than the GFS looking upstairs- 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Best run yet easily Low new Hudson Bay moves west enough for the precip to reach us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 Sorry if this has already been posted here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 Just now, CAPE said: Easy to see why the Euro has a more favorable outcome than the GFS looking upstairs- More negative tilt? Trying to get better lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 Just now, CAPE said: Easy to see why the Euro has a more favorable outcome than the GFS looking upstairs- Keep it going. Little more phase will blossom the qpf shield 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 1 minute ago, T. August said: More negative tilt? Trying to get better lol Yes, and sharper, plus partial phasing. GFS is flatter and weaker with the surface low and doesnt draw in enough cold air because of the lack of interaction/sharpness with the shortwave. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 Who do we trust more here? Love those Brits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 Euro is actually pretty good lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 18z Euro gets some kind of snow back to I-81 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago IMO DC is a good spot to be in for this. Just far north such that mixing isn’t likely to be an issue, just far south such that they can get into that precip band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago When the models were showing a great pattern over the next 10 days and beyond a few days back, it was showing this system but it was way suppressed to the south because of the cold press. Now that the block is falling apart, the cold press isn't as much, allowing this system to come up north. Hopefully we still have enough cold air to snow if the precip comes up that far. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago sign me up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: When the models were showing a great pattern over the next 10 days and beyond a few days back, it was showing this system but it was way suppressed to the south because of the cold press. Now that the block is falling apart, the cold press isn't as much, allowing this system to come up north. Hopefully we still have enough cold air to snow if the precip comes up that far. models that do temp guidance have been so wrong over the last 7 winters always show this historic cold for weeks turns out to be a bit below for a day or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 18z Euro gets some kind of snow back to I-81 Short on time? we still have plenty of time with the way these models are lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, TSSN+ said: Short on time? we still have plenty of time with the way these models are lol. Actually I agree with you. The NYC event trended north in the last day or so, putting the max just NE of the city instead of directly over and south of it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 57 minutes ago Share Posted 57 minutes ago 1 hour ago, Ephesians2 said: Sorry if this has already been posted here. And with the 1st of January projected to be very warm, they are going with a big pattern change for the 2nd half of the month: PNA has been negative every day this Winter since Dec 1st. LR models have it going positive for the 2nd half of January: If the CPC is right, it could actually get very cold Jan 20-30. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 53 minutes ago Share Posted 53 minutes ago We're so close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 50 minutes ago Share Posted 50 minutes ago 38 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 18z Euro gets some kind of snow back to I-81 And thus the reason why writing off something 10+ days from now is ludicrous. Nina = short/medium range surprises quite frequently. Not saying this is a hit but those were some big ticket changes in under 36hrs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 20 minutes ago Share Posted 20 minutes ago hmmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted 15 minutes ago Share Posted 15 minutes ago 4 minutes ago, bncho said: hmmm Keep moving it a couple hundred miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 5 minutes ago Share Posted 5 minutes ago 47 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: We're so close. Watch this be a reverse Feb 20 type bust where we manage to get a phase of the NS and southern energy within 5 days of the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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