Eskimo Joe Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wait...how? Lol The west coast rough ruins everything. Pumps heights in the eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 This weekend still has potential for a light event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: The west coast rough ruins everything. Pumps heights in the eastern US. 12z Eps run 500mb anomaly map Cape posted Monday evening on top for 0z 1/9. Last night's run of the Eps only 36 hours later on the bottom. More evidence the reliability of ensembles can match that of operationals. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 1 hour ago, rjvanals said: This weekend still has potential for a light event Trends are decent. Wish it was trending like this a day or two ago, though. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 ^literally every model has trended towards: 1.) A storm 2.) More compact vort 3.) Closer to us 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: ^literally every model has trended towards: 1.) A storm 2.) More compact vort 3.) Closer to us It would be so true to form for us to get a snowstorm sneak up on us at D5 while we lament the loss of a phantom at D10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 Not getting digital blue on a 16 day ops run on Dec 31 is anti-ideal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 Just now, AlexD1990 said: It would be so true to form for us to get a snowstorm sneak up on us at D5 while we lament the loss of a phantom at D10 Historically, that's how we get a lot of our light to mod events. 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 Looks like the 12z’s are the most importent runs of 2025. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 Yes, I know JB, yada yada and he definitely has his flaws ... an interesting reminder, however, not to take the models verbatim.https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/2006385108584910948 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 6 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Yes, I know JB, yada yada and he definitely has his flaws ... an interesting reminder, however, not to take the models verbatim.https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/2006385108584910948 He's been honking that 1985 thing for seemingly weeks now. Hopefully he scores a coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 While everyone went doom and gloom yesterday the 00z EPS pumps a big Alaskan ridge by Jan 10-15 and tries to get the STJ active with some split flow. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: While everyone went doom and gloom yesterday the 00z EPS pumps a big Alaskan ridge by Jan 10-15 and tries to get the STJ active with some split flow. After about 5 days of AN/much AN temps, that -EPO takes us back to NN or below by Jan 12. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 AIGFS came a bit north for Sunday but still well south. Overall the American suite has been on the side of strongest suppression for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 12Z GFS ain't it for the Sunday potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 1 minute ago, IronTy said: 12Z GFS ain't it for the Sunday potential. Mid level changes leave room for continued improvement though I think, although the surface didn't change much this time. Might be a non linear sort of trend on the ground if we see earlier and stronger consolidation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 39 minutes ago, IronTy said: He's been honking that 1985 thing for seemingly weeks now. Hopefully he scores a coup. He's been honking the 1985 thing since 1986. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 42 minutes ago, IronTy said: He's been honking that 1985 thing for seemingly weeks now. Hopefully he scores a coup. Very exciting.... Pattern is ripe for storms and rumors of storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 31 minutes ago, IronTy said: 12Z GFS ain't it for the Sunday potential. It’s about as bad of a run as it gets for early Jan. 2014 and 15 were mostly backloaded winters even though it was chilly from start to finish, which seems to be where things are headed as a best case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 5 minutes ago, 87storms said: It’s about as bad of a run as it gets for early Jan. 2014 and 15 were mostly backloaded winters even though it was chilly from start to finish, which seems to be where things are headed as a best case scenario. Yeah rain in International Falls MN isn't a great sign for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 Just now, rjvanals said: Yeah rain in International Falls MN isn't a great sign for us No, it’s definitely not lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 I think we can take 13-14 analog off the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 SW US is getting active after having a very mild December. Not sure what that means further east, but something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 9 minutes ago, 87storms said: It’s about as bad of a run as it gets for early Jan. 2014 and 15 were mostly backloaded winters even though it was chilly from start to finish, which seems to be where things are headed as a best case scenario. Hey I'm digging that 70F high temp on jan-10th though! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 Just now, IronTy said: Hey I'm digging that 70F high temp on jan-10th though! Delayed, but denied? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 1 minute ago, 87storms said: It’s about as bad of a run as it gets for early Jan. 2014 and 15 were mostly backloaded winters even though it was chilly from start to finish, which seems to be where things are headed as a best case scenario. The Pac jet extension is a bit too robust leading to the warm up. There is a ton of heat energy in the Western and SW Pac. The warm up was actually spoken about about 10 days ago, ( although some thought it would not happen since other warm ups have trended less and less over time ) however this time it appears likely it will be warming up ahead of the - EPO/ +TNH pattern. Goes to show you the Pac is King, the current - NAO and the - AO are useless when the Pac does not cooperate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 12z GEFS doesn't contain any hints of further improvement for Sunday, unfortunately - all members suppressed from what I can see. Even with the organization of the storm trending better, there's no way it can turn the corner as depicted. An additional problem is that we don't have much cold to give here, so very little room to shake the suppression and not just end up warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 This is pretty good match for day 10 between two OP models, -EPO cold dump, obv going to be a warm up before the front eventually clears, question is what happens after?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: This is pretty good match for day 10 between two OP models, -EPO cold dump, obv going to be a warm up before the front eventually clears, question is what happens after? . Idk if that trough out in the Atlantic on the far right of the screen is what's causing the SER or vice-versa. I would guess that unless it moves out, however, it will act like a 50-50 low and pump the heights over the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 For me, this is the only map that matters. Until this map starts showing a sustained change, it's all just wish casting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts