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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowfan
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23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The west coast rough ruins everything. Pumps heights in the eastern US.

12z Eps run 500mb anomaly map Cape posted Monday evening on top for 0z 1/9. Last night's run of the Eps only 36 hours later on the bottom. More evidence the reliability of ensembles can match that of operationals.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-7916800 (1).png

500h_anom-mean.conus (6).png

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3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

^literally every model has trended towards:
1.) A storm
2.) More compact vort
3.) Closer to us

It would be so true to form for us to get a snowstorm sneak up on us at D5 while we lament the loss of a phantom at D10

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3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

While everyone went doom and gloom yesterday the 00z EPS pumps a big Alaskan ridge by Jan 10-15 and tries to get the STJ active with some split flow.

After about 5 days of AN/much AN temps, that -EPO takes us back to NN or below by Jan 12.

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1 minute ago, IronTy said:

12Z GFS ain't it for the Sunday potential.  

Mid level changes leave room for continued improvement though I think, although the surface didn't change much this time. Might be a non linear sort of trend on the ground if we see earlier and stronger consolidation.
gfs-z500-vort-us-fh78-trend.gif

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31 minutes ago, IronTy said:

12Z GFS ain't it for the Sunday potential.  

It’s about as bad of a run as it gets for early Jan.  2014 and 15 were mostly backloaded winters even though it was chilly from start to finish, which seems to be where things are headed as a best case scenario.

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5 minutes ago, 87storms said:

It’s about as bad of a run as it gets for early Jan.  2014 and 15 were mostly backloaded winters even though it was chilly from start to finish, which seems to be where things are headed as a best case scenario.

Yeah rain in International Falls MN isn't a great sign for us 

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1 minute ago, 87storms said:

It’s about as bad of a run as it gets for early Jan.  2014 and 15 were mostly backloaded winters even though it was chilly from start to finish, which seems to be where things are headed as a best case scenario.

The Pac jet extension is a bit too robust leading to the warm up. There is a ton of heat energy in the Western and SW Pac. 

The warm up was actually spoken about about 10 days ago, ( although some thought it would not happen since other warm ups have trended less and less over time ) however this time it appears likely it will be warming up ahead of the - EPO/ +TNH pattern.

Goes to show you the Pac is King, the current - NAO and the - AO are useless when the Pac does not cooperate. 

Image

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12z GEFS doesn't contain any hints of further improvement for Sunday, unfortunately - all members suppressed from what I can see. Even with the organization of the storm trending better, there's no way it can turn the corner as depicted. An additional problem is that we don't have much cold to give here, so very little room to shake the suppression and not just end up warm.

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4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

This is pretty good match for day 10 between two OP models, -EPO cold dump, obv going to be a warm up before the front eventually clears, question is what happens after?

6bb2fe09cfe48057da38c020b2c0bd04.jpg
cddb5bbc8b599cf1a5f42c1fec40b425.jpg


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Idk if that trough out in the Atlantic on the far right of the screen is what's causing the SER or vice-versa. I would guess that unless it moves out, however, it will act like a 50-50 low and pump the heights over the east coast.

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