January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wait...how? Lol

The west coast rough ruins everything. Pumps heights in the eastern US.

[rjvanals]

This weekend still has potential for a light event 

[mitchnick]

23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The west coast rough ruins everything. Pumps heights in the eastern US.

12z Eps run 500mb anomaly map Cape posted Monday evening on top for 0z 1/9. Last night's run of the Eps only 36 hours later on the bottom. More evidence the reliability of ensembles can match that of operationals.

[baltosquid]

1 hour ago, rjvanals said:

This weekend still has potential for a light event 

Trends are decent. Wish it was trending like this a day or two ago, though.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

^literally every model has trended towards:
1.) A storm
2.) More compact vort
3.) Closer to us

[AlexD1990]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

^literally every model has trended towards:
1.) A storm
2.) More compact vort
3.) Closer to us

It would be so true to form for us to get a snowstorm sneak up on us at D5 while we lament the loss of a phantom at D10

[87storms]

Not getting digital blue on a 16 day ops run on Dec 31 is anti-ideal.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, AlexD1990 said:

It would be so true to form for us to get a snowstorm sneak up on us at D5 while we lament the loss of a phantom at D10

Historically, that's how we get a lot of our light to mod events.

[Scraff]

Looks like the 12z’s are the most importent runs of 2025. 

[Warm Nose]

Yes, I know JB, yada yada and he definitely has his flaws ... an interesting reminder, however, not to take the models verbatim.

https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/2006385108584910948

[IronTy]

6 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

Yes, I know JB, yada yada and he definitely has his flaws ... an interesting reminder, however, not to take the models verbatim.

https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/2006385108584910948

He's been honking that 1985 thing for seemingly weeks now.  Hopefully he scores a coup. 

[Eskimo Joe]

While everyone went doom and gloom yesterday the 00z EPS pumps a big Alaskan ridge by Jan 10-15 and tries to get the STJ active with some split flow.

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

While everyone went doom and gloom yesterday the 00z EPS pumps a big Alaskan ridge by Jan 10-15 and tries to get the STJ active with some split flow.

After about 5 days of AN/much AN temps, that -EPO takes us back to NN or below by Jan 12.

[baltosquid]

AIGFS came a bit north for Sunday but still well south. Overall the American suite has been on the side of strongest suppression for this one.

[IronTy]

12Z GFS ain't it for the Sunday potential.  

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

12Z GFS ain't it for the Sunday potential.  

Mid level changes leave room for continued improvement though I think, although the surface didn't change much this time. Might be a non linear sort of trend on the ground if we see earlier and stronger consolidation.

[JTA66]

39 minutes ago, IronTy said:

He's been honking that 1985 thing for seemingly weeks now.  Hopefully he scores a coup. 

He's been honking the 1985 thing since 1986.

[blizzardmeiser]

42 minutes ago, IronTy said:

He's been honking that 1985 thing for seemingly weeks now.  Hopefully he scores a coup. 

Very exciting.... Pattern is ripe for storms and rumors of storms 

[87storms]

31 minutes ago, IronTy said:

12Z GFS ain't it for the Sunday potential.  

It’s about as bad of a run as it gets for early Jan.  2014 and 15 were mostly backloaded winters even though it was chilly from start to finish, which seems to be where things are headed as a best case scenario.

[rjvanals]

5 minutes ago, 87storms said:

It’s about as bad of a run as it gets for early Jan.  2014 and 15 were mostly backloaded winters even though it was chilly from start to finish, which seems to be where things are headed as a best case scenario.

Yeah rain in International Falls MN isn't a great sign for us 

[87storms]

Just now, rjvanals said:

Yeah rain in International Falls MN isn't a great sign for us 

No, it’s definitely not lol

[Ji]

I think we can take 13-14 analog off the table

[87storms]

SW US is getting active after having a very mild December. Not sure what that means further east, but something to keep an eye on.

[IronTy]

9 minutes ago, 87storms said:

It’s about as bad of a run as it gets for early Jan.  2014 and 15 were mostly backloaded winters even though it was chilly from start to finish, which seems to be where things are headed as a best case scenario.

Hey I'm digging that 70F high temp on jan-10th though!

[87storms]

Just now, IronTy said:

Hey I'm digging that 70F high temp on jan-10th though!

Delayed, but denied?

[frd]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

It’s about as bad of a run as it gets for early Jan.  2014 and 15 were mostly backloaded winters even though it was chilly from start to finish, which seems to be where things are headed as a best case scenario.

The Pac jet extension is a bit too robust leading to the warm up. There is a ton of heat energy in the Western and SW Pac. 

The warm up was actually spoken about about 10 days ago, ( although some thought it would not happen since other warm ups have trended less and less over time ) however this time it appears likely it will be warming up ahead of the - EPO/ +TNH pattern.

Goes to show you the Pac is King, the current - NAO and the - AO are useless when the Pac does not cooperate. 

[baltosquid]

12z GEFS doesn't contain any hints of further improvement for Sunday, unfortunately - all members suppressed from what I can see. Even with the organization of the storm trending better, there's no way it can turn the corner as depicted. An additional problem is that we don't have much cold to give here, so very little room to shake the suppression and not just end up warm.

[Heisy]

This is pretty good match for day 10 between two OP models, -EPO cold dump, obv going to be a warm up before the front eventually clears, question is what happens after?





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[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

This is pretty good match for day 10 between two OP models, -EPO cold dump, obv going to be a warm up before the front eventually clears, question is what happens after?





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Idk if that trough out in the Atlantic on the far right of the screen is what's causing the SER or vice-versa. I would guess that unless it moves out, however, it will act like a 50-50 low and pump the heights over the east coast.

[IronTy]

For me, this is the only map that matters.  Until this map starts showing a sustained change, it's all just wish casting.