January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wait...how? Lol

The west coast rough ruins everything. Pumps heights in the eastern US.

[rjvanals]

This weekend still has potential for a light event 

[mitchnick]

23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The west coast rough ruins everything. Pumps heights in the eastern US.

12z Eps run 500mb anomaly map Cape posted Monday evening on top for 0z 1/9. Last night's run of the Eps only 36 hours later on the bottom. More evidence the reliability of ensembles can match that of operationals.

[baltosquid]

1 hour ago, rjvanals said:

This weekend still has potential for a light event 

Trends are decent. Wish it was trending like this a day or two ago, though.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

^literally every model has trended towards:
1.) A storm
2.) More compact vort
3.) Closer to us

[AlexD1990]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

^literally every model has trended towards:
1.) A storm
2.) More compact vort
3.) Closer to us

It would be so true to form for us to get a snowstorm sneak up on us at D5 while we lament the loss of a phantom at D10

[87storms]

Not getting digital blue on a 16 day ops run on Dec 31 is anti-ideal.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, AlexD1990 said:

It would be so true to form for us to get a snowstorm sneak up on us at D5 while we lament the loss of a phantom at D10

Historically, that's how we get a lot of our light to mod events.

[Scraff]

Looks like the 12z’s are the most importent runs of 2025. 

[Warm Nose]

Yes, I know JB, yada yada and he definitely has his flaws ... an interesting reminder, however, not to take the models verbatim.

https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/2006385108584910948

[IronTy]

6 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

Yes, I know JB, yada yada and he definitely has his flaws ... an interesting reminder, however, not to take the models verbatim.

https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/2006385108584910948

He's been honking that 1985 thing for seemingly weeks now.  Hopefully he scores a coup. 

[Eskimo Joe]

While everyone went doom and gloom yesterday the 00z EPS pumps a big Alaskan ridge by Jan 10-15 and tries to get the STJ active with some split flow.

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

While everyone went doom and gloom yesterday the 00z EPS pumps a big Alaskan ridge by Jan 10-15 and tries to get the STJ active with some split flow.

After about 5 days of AN/much AN temps, that -EPO takes us back to NN or below by Jan 12.

[baltosquid]

AIGFS came a bit north for Sunday but still well south. Overall the American suite has been on the side of strongest suppression for this one.

[IronTy]

12Z GFS ain't it for the Sunday potential.  

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

12Z GFS ain't it for the Sunday potential.  

Mid level changes leave room for continued improvement though I think, although the surface didn't change much this time. Might be a non linear sort of trend on the ground if we see earlier and stronger consolidation.