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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowfan
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23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The west coast rough ruins everything. Pumps heights in the eastern US.

12z Eps run 500mb anomaly map Cape posted Monday evening on top for 0z 1/9. Last night's run of the Eps only 36 hours later on the bottom. More evidence the reliability of ensembles can match that of operationals.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-7916800 (1).png

500h_anom-mean.conus (6).png

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3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

^literally every model has trended towards:
1.) A storm
2.) More compact vort
3.) Closer to us

It would be so true to form for us to get a snowstorm sneak up on us at D5 while we lament the loss of a phantom at D10

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6 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

Yes, I know JB, yada yada and he definitely has his flaws ... an interesting reminder, however, not to take the models verbatim.

https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/2006385108584910948

He's been honking that 1985 thing for seemingly weeks now.  Hopefully he scores a coup. 

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3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

While everyone went doom and gloom yesterday the 00z EPS pumps a big Alaskan ridge by Jan 10-15 and tries to get the STJ active with some split flow.

After about 5 days of AN/much AN temps, that -EPO takes us back to NN or below by Jan 12.

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1 minute ago, IronTy said:

12Z GFS ain't it for the Sunday potential.  

Mid level changes leave room for continued improvement though I think, although the surface didn't change much this time. Might be a non linear sort of trend on the ground if we see earlier and stronger consolidation.
gfs-z500-vort-us-fh78-trend.gif

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