January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[WxUSAF]

2 of the top 3 in the first analog list…

 

[nj2va]

25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I will go on record as saying there is actually a bit more upside possible still with this one wrt the NAO region still showing some ridging and blockiness. Anyone saying I need to show more optimism, we'll, there ya go.

Ralph just go full on weenie, LFG

[Chris78]

39 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Never safe from Ji 

Can't wait to hear we lost 20" at about 1130 tonight. 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS for Day 10.

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS for Day 10.

why do you post these deflating maps? Can we enjoy something for a few hours?

[nw baltimore wx]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

why do you post these deflating maps? Can we enjoy something for a few hours?

Right?!? I mean, a 10 day map always has me invested.

[snowmagnet]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

FOLKS

It's been 10 years..... I think it's time for another Jan '16. 

[snowmagnet]

6 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

It's been 10 years..... I think it's time for another Jan '16. 

Actually, it's also been 30 years since Jan 6-8th, 1996...  All good signs, 

[Chris78]

27 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS for Day 10.

There's probably some timing differences between members. A 72 hr snap shot might be better

[Weather Will]

6 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

There's probably some timing differences between members. A 72 hr snap shot might be better

WB 18Z GEFS snow totals through Day 13....everyone just needs to keep expectations in check with one day 10 forecast run of a global  model.  Hopefully the pattern will deliver.  Fighting stomach flu and taking down Christmas decorations.  It was nice to get a good run to brighten my spirits.

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS snow totals through Day 13....everyone just needs to keep expectations in check with one day 10 forecast run of a global  model.  Hopefully the pattern will deliver.  Fighting stomach flu and taking down Christmas decorations.  It was nice to get a good run to brighten my spirits.

Little to no support for the Op, got it 

[ravensrule]

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

You are talking to a group over analyzing the 252 hour models.  In like 5 years this has become normalized.  Back in the day, we’d mercilessly troll wennies who would do this. 

Please bring back the weenie of the year award. 

[mattie g]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS snow totals through Day 13....everyone just needs to keep expectations in check with one day 10 forecast run of a global  model.  Hopefully the pattern will deliver.  Fighting stomach flu and taking down Christmas decorations.  It was nice to get a good run to brighten my spirits.

Sorry to hear you’re not feeling well, Will, but…the f*ck are you talking about?

[bncho]

Even the Spire model agreed on a KU

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Someone hold me

You know i will baby, very tightly. 

[CAPE]

38 minutes ago, Ji said:

why do you post these deflating maps? Can we enjoy something for a few hours?

Yeah the signal for a storm on the 18z GEFS isnt great. Its there, but not overly impressive. That said, we are 10 days out, and the h5 look IS consistently conducive across guidance. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS snow totals through Day 13....everyone just needs to keep expectations in check with one day 10 forecast run of a global  model.  Hopefully the pattern will deliver.  Fighting stomach flu and taking down Christmas decorations.  It was nice to get a good run to brighten my spirits.

P20 seems about right

[mattie g]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

Even the Spire model agreed on a KU

If the Spire is in, then I’m in.

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

P20 seems about right

 I have no idea why he posts this crap. Its not going to boost morale when half the forum is about to bail on winter already lol.

FOCUS ON THE 500 MB PATTERN AT THIS RANGE. Fucking fuck the goddamn snow maps FFS.

[CAPE]

I need another bourbon.

[dailylurker]

Just now, CAPE said:

I need another bourbon.

I'm so glad I'm headed to the Tug in a few hours. I need a break from here lol

[ravensrule]

Just now, dailylurker said:

I'm so glad I'm headed to the Tug in a few hours. I need a break from here lol

I would be tugging something if i was there. 

[aldie 22]

20 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I need another bourbon.

Even hard liquor goggles can't make some of these dumbasses posts be any better 

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I need another bourbon.

It’s snowing outside, I’m on my 2nd cocktail, and I just finished cleaning up dishes after making braised short ribs and roasted garlic mashed potatoes for dinner.  Even Will’s 24H downer maps won’t impact my mood 

[Ralph Wiggum]

12 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I'm so glad I'm headed to the Tug in a few hours. I need a break from here lol

You going to the Tug getting 3-6' when you come home youre gonna scoff at the 1-3' we get. Desensitized, if you will 

[Ji]

I'm so glad I'm headed to the Tug in a few hours. I need a break from here lol

What town? Cabin ? Hotel ?

[Ralph Wiggum]

12 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I would be tugging something if i was there. 

You must mean the starter on the snowblower, I can only surmise.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

What town? Cabin ? Hotel ?

Side story, I almost bought a cabin in Redwood 2 years ago. Bailed at the last minute realizing if its a weekend getaway, thats a 9hr ride on a Friday night. Add in trying to get thru snow and into the cabin after being on the road 9 hours. Then having to leave on a Sunday morning to come home. Just doesn't sound fun to this old man. Now if I actually lived there year-round? We'll, that might actually work.

[ravensrule]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

You must mean the starter on the snowblower, I can only surmise.

That’s exactly what i meant. You read my mind, extremely impressive. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

 I have no idea why he posts this crap. Its not going to boost morale when half the forum is about to bail on winter already lol.

FOCUS ON THE 500 MB PATTERN AT THIS RANGE. Fucking fuck the goddamn snow maps FFS.

I think/hope you know my post was a joke. Snow hole thing. Anyway, im 100% in for the ride on team snow, so ride on! P.S. what kind of bourbon you sippin on?