January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[bncho]

What more can you ask from this other than the fact that it's three weeks out? Strong signal for an -EPO with a trace of +PNA in there, then we have the high latitude blocking with some decent -AO/-NAO signals (could be stronger) also with a hint of an SE ridge to prevent suppression. The cold air is THERE in Canada as well. Jan 15-Feb 1 y'all. I'm telling you we're getting something then.

[Eskimo Joe]

Dr. No says yes?

 

 

[WxUSAF]

Tomer has a NYC January snowfall poll on Twitter and says his vote is 20-29”. That would bode quite well for us since he also thinks the pattern favors areas south of NYC…

[Maestrobjwa]

57 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ya probably flurries 

Not sure why this got weenied...I mean that's what current guidance is showing. BUT, I guess this kind of thing could trend a little stronger as we get a little closer...we'll see.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[bncho]

29 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Tomer has a NYC January snowfall poll on Twitter and says his vote is 20-29”. That would bode quite well for us since he also thinks the pattern favors areas south of NYC…

I thought he was talking about TOTAL snowfall, and then I read it a bit more carefully… LFG!

[TSSN+]

46 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not sure why this got weenied...I mean that's what current guidance is showing. BUT, I guess this kind of thing could trend a little stronger as we get a little closer...we'll see.

Cause people are snow starved and anyone saying anything that is not snow positive they get mad. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Cause people are snow starved and anyone saying anything that is not snow positive they get mad. 

Agreed. The New Years event is a low end dusting to one inch affair at best. I just want snow.

[AlexD1990]

No. You are in Delaware.

Um? Some sort of in-joke I am not aware of?

That look has worked out for much of our region quite often in recent winters, but maybe not so much for you ? 

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[bncho]

Tomer doesn’t weenie cast. Holy shit. 20-29” in NYC likely translates to 15-25” for DCA.

[nj2va]

Just now, bncho said:

Tomer doesn’t weenie cast. Holy shit. 20-29” in NYC likely translates to 15-25” for DCA.

He thinks the pattern favors south of NYC so he could be thinking higher totals here.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

Um? Some sort of in-joke I am not aware of?

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk
 

DE is part of our subforum. Not sure what the post was supposed to mean. If it was meant to be tongue in cheek, it didn't really land.

[AlexD1990]

DE is part of our subforum. Not sure what the post was supposed to mean. If it was meant to be tongue in cheek, it didn't really land.

Don't I know it. This is why most of us stick to our little thread

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[CAPE]

Wonder what Ji thinks about HH GFS 

I'm guesting, DISASTER!!

[Weather Will]

18Z GFS Absolute Disaster and 18Z EURO AI is snowless too. 10 pages of hype will hopefully still deliver but it is not snowing this week.  Let's see what the models show next weekend before getting too excited about January. We've been down this road too many times before...

[Chris78]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not sure why this got weenied...I mean that's what current guidance is showing. BUT, I guess this kind of thing could trend a little stronger as we get a little closer...we'll see.

Its gotten weird in here. You can post about what a model shows and if it's not positive people will slap a weenie on it.

 

[nj2va]

18z Euro has the NYD clipper with C-1” across the sub-forum.

[Ji]

One of the worst gfs runs of my lifetime

[ravensrule]

49 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Agreed. The New Years event is a low end dusting to one inch affair at best. I just want snow.

An inch is something. 

[Warm Nose]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

One of the worst gfs runs of my lifetime

[ravensrule]

42 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

Don't I know it. This is why most of us stick to our little thread

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk
 

Hence little Alex. 

[Maestrobjwa]

56 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Agreed. The New Years event is a low end dusting to one inch affair at best. I just want snow.

When is the last time it snowed on New Year's here?

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

An inch is something. 

That’s what Ji tells himself

[Chris78]

33 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

18Z GFS Absolute Disaster and 18Z EURO AI is snowless too. 10 pages of hype will hopefully still deliver but it is not snowing this week.  Let's see what the models show next weekend before getting too excited about January. We've been down this road too many times before...

Did JI high jack your account?

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

An inch is something. 

 

[nj2va]

The mood swings in here really are something. Hard to keep up, I might need to double my martini dose.

[clueless]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

The mood swings in here really are something. Hard to keep up, I might need to double my martini dose.

Looks like I poured one just in time.  

[TSSN+]

Just now, nj2va said:

The mood swings in here really are something. Hard to keep up, I might need to double my martini dose.

Everyone goes back and forth too much. It’s easy to stay in the I don’t expect snow side till something actually changes. Been dry, crappy patterns, etc. snow will comes when it comes but I’m not getting excited about a so called good pattern week plus out. 

[Maestrobjwa]

41 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

18Z GFS Absolute Disaster and 18Z EURO AI is snowless too. 10 pages of hype will hopefully still deliver but it is not snowing this week.  Let's see what the models show next weekend before getting too excited about January. We've been down this road too many times before...

Listen...treat it as potential and nothing more. It's not real right now. Don't get too high on it--that's when the problems start on the emotional side of things.

[nj2va]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Everyone goes back and forth too much. It’s easy to stay in the I don’t expect snow side till something actually changes. Been dry, crappy patterns, etc. snow will comes when it comes but I’m not getting excited about a so called good pattern week plus out. 

I know, its easy to be pessimistic about snow in the area but here’s my HH preview of our radar in a few weeks