January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Prismshine Productions]

1056... Good Lord that is a legit HP

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[MJO812]

Heads up on the gfs

Crawling coastal storm incoming 

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Heads up on the gfs

Crawling coastal storm incoming 

Obliterates the south lol

[Prismshine Productions]

Heads up on the gfs
Crawling coastal storm incoming 

Obliterates the south lol

Legitimate Feb. Blizzard of 1973 redux

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[Ginx snewx]

Not going to lie but looking at the long range in all models I got a 2011 2015 boner. 

[Ginx snewx]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Heads up on the gfs

Crawling coastal storm incoming 

Man find that nut GFS. Coastal destroyer Condo Collapser

[dryslot]

LBSW on the goofus

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Not going to lie but looking at the long range in all models I got a 2011 2015 boner. 

We’re getting a pseudo El Niño pattern in a Niña February. That is so weird to see on all the guidance. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

LBSW on the goofus

Congrats Atlanta. Ptype loop looks like Mar 93 going across the SE

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’re getting a pseudo El Niño pattern in a Niña February. That is so weird to see on all the guidance. 

Which could mean north trend?

[dryslot]

Just now, dendrite said:

Congrats Atlanta. Ptype loop looks like Mar 93 going across the SE

Just good that it keeps appearing for now, Details of where this stalls TBD going forward.

[dendrite]

Just now, dryslot said:

Just good that it keeps appearing for now, Details of where this stalls TBD going forward.

Happens on groundhog day so at least winter will end after that storm

[dryslot]

Just now, dendrite said:

Happens on groundhog day so at least winter will end after that storm

No groundhog day this year, PETA confiscated the gopher.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Happens on groundhog day so at least winter will end after that storm

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’re getting a pseudo El Niño pattern in a Niña February. That is so weird to see on all the guidance. 

I'm not shocked....I mentioned to Steve, 2014-2015 was the best QBO/solar match I could find...couple that with the subsurface warmth within the ENSO region, and bang. Furthermore, check out the analogs in this +TNH composite that I compiled for the late January/early February period in my outlook?

 

 

Here is a composite of seasons that fit this +TNH description over the past decade or so.

 

 

I also liked 2012-2013 as analog, but ultimately decided against using 2012-2013 and 2014-2015 because they were too warm ENSOish, but I thought they both had value for latter January into early February. Moving forward I am going to be more aggressive with straying from ENSO in my seasonal analog composite unless it's strong. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Everyone overlooking the GEM... Dropped a 73 redux on South Carolina with sleet mixed in (anyone got the IP map by chance?) then started coming up the coast

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[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a huge index signal centered around the 1st, + and/or - a couple of dates, which are derived from the ensembles.

Somewhat ironic, the same ensemble mass -fields that are analyzed in deriving those same index values, do not actually carry a significant event through that period

That is oddly troubling. 

Meanwhile, the operational versions have at least been off and on .. perhaps 50% of the time, plotting then not plotting significant events within that index-signaled window.  

That's what we are dealing with.  

Sometimes...  the ensemble means will actually collapse toward the denser physically applied operational flagship versions.  Rarer...but can happen in that direction.  If that is going to be the case this time... proooobably start to see some at least tentative operational agreement on which dates to center on.  So far...we've really seen 29/30th to 02/03 and all dates in between. Not really centering...  This may also come together/coalesce in guidance better after we get this present major off the boards.  

I will also add... purely from a climatology of major events historical perspective it is seldom that major winter storms occur in short order.   We've seen two moderate impact events pull that off in the past; aggregating to a major by weight of both kind of thing.  But this thing on Sun/Mon ... then having an 06z GFS 5 days later is rarely observed.

Let's get it on the 2nd and make my 40th bday epic 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Everyone overlooking the GEM... Dropped a 73 redux on South Carolina with sleet mixed in (anyone got the IP map by chance?) then started coming up the coast

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Any storm dropping snowfall that far south will not be high end for us, unless it's a 1/100 year full phaser.

[ineedsnow]

CMC was close to something fun Thursday

[sankaty]

Anyone have a link that shows the EPO index forecast? Thanks.

[Prismshine Productions]

Any storm dropping snowfall that far south will not be high end for us, unless it's a 1/100 year full phaser.

hr240, s/w over Wisconsin was diving

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[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, sankaty said:

Anyone have a link that shows the EPO index forecast? Thanks.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Any storm dropping snowfall that far south will not be high end for us, unless it's a 1/100 year full phaser.

Unless of course it redevelops and stall after getting a jolt of upper air energy. FWIW Tips say back to back storm are rare  2011 2015 is knocking 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, sankaty said:

Anyone have a link that shows the EPO index forecast? Thanks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

hr240

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Yea, no thanks.

[ariof]

That storm on the GFS op has a ridiculous band of SN from MSY to ATL to CLT and then on up the coast. 12" of snow in MSY (the 06Z also had this, a year after they had their record snowfall; maybe we should all move to Bourbon Street), 2-3 feet on ATL (record is 8"). We manage 1-2' up here.

Would be wild.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Unless of course it redevelops and stall after getting a jolt of upper air energy. FWIW Tips say back to back storm are rare  2011 2015 is knocking 

I'm talking reality, not long range model runs...but that isn't high-end, anyway....nice storm, but not anything epic.

[ariof]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

CMC was close to something fun Thursday

If it were 2015 then both the Thursday storm and the one Feb 1ish would verify.

[sankaty]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks for these. Are they only available to WeatherBell subscribers? I have a weathermodels.com sub. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm taking reality, not long range model runs...but that isn't high-end, anyway....nice storm, but not anything epic.

Tons of reality in my 68 yrs of  life with coastal runners Miller A baby