January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Typhoon Tip]

29 minutes ago, das said:

Yep. Like I said in the post just above, I like the ingredients at play here.  You look at the model output on those runs that show nothing and the somewhat obvious question is; where is the storm that should be right there?

I like your phrase, “restoring system”. I am going to steal that.

Yes!

terrific way to put that. Non-linear wave functions, often expose their influence with that kind of transcendent appeal.

[Torch Tiger]

0z gfs has a big storm. But it hugs/occludes. Double barrel looking as well

[HIPPYVALLEY]

20 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

0z gfs has a big storm. But it hugs/occludes. Double barrel looking as well

Perfect at this range for us "up and in" folks

[Diggiebot]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Perfect at this range for us "up and in" folks

Let’s share the wealth 

[Kitz Craver]

06z GFS with an absolute monster Miller A for Feb 1. Wow.

[UnitedWx]

24 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

06z GFS with an absolute monster Miller A for Feb 1. Wow.

That would be sweet,  and still active after 

[mahk_webstah]

29 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

06z GFS with an absolute monster Miller A for Feb 1. Wow.

Seems like five straight days or something where the GFS has had a big storm. I think the euro has had a signal, right? No one is really talked about the other model suites during this timeframe.

 

[Kitz Craver]

Euro OP not biting, I’m not sure about ENS

[tavwtby]

looks east to me but at this timeframe, it has time to tic NW

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Kitz Craver said:

06z GFS with an absolute monster Miller A for Feb 1. Wow.

There’s our perfect cane track

[WxWatcher007]

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There’s our perfect cane track

I hadn’t even looked at it that way.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

La la lock it in. 

[Torch Tiger]

15 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

La la lock it in. 

Looks 100x more interesting than this weekends swfe

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Looks 100x more interesting than this weekends swfe

It's beautiful...for a D9 storm. 

[Kitz Craver]

12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It's beautiful...for a D9 storm. 

It’s been on and off on a bunch of models for a bit however. Let this weekend clear out first as the crux of this potential stems from the Arctic front passing today, traversing the TPV, coming back around and spawning the storm as I recall from yesterday’s reading. 

[lurker]

 

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

It’s been on and off on a bunch of models for a bit however. Let this weekend clear out first as the crux of this potential stems from the Arctic front passing today, traversing the TPV, coming back around and spawning the storm as I recall from yesterday’s reading. 

Yeah, I know that the signal has been there, it’s just rich to see TT more interested in a fantasy event at this range than a big dog in his backyard. 

[alex]

Wasn’t expecting the snow today. Small tiny flakes but pretty good intensity 

[SJonesWX]

18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, I know that the signal has been there, it’s just rich to see TT more interested in a fantasy event at this range than a big dog in his backyard. 

hint: he's not interested in either and is doing his usual troll act

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

hint: he's not interested in either and is doing his usual troll act

I know. He’s ridiculous.   

[Typhoon Tip]

It's a huge index signal centered around the 1st, + and/or - a couple of dates, which are derived from the ensembles.

Somewhat ironic, the same ensemble mass -fields that are analyzed in deriving those same index values, do not actually carry a significant event through that period

That is oddly troubling. 

Meanwhile, the operational versions have at least been off and on .. perhaps 50% of the time, plotting then not plotting significant events within that index-signaled window.  

That's what we are dealing with.  

Sometimes...  the ensemble means will actually collapse toward the denser physically applied operational flagship versions.  Rarer...but can happen in that direction.  If that is going to be the case this time... proooobably start to see some at least tentative operational agreement on which dates to center on.  So far...we've really seen 29/30th to 02/03 and all dates in between. Not really centering...  This may also come together/coalesce in guidance better after we get this present major off the boards.  

I will also add... purely from a climatology of major events historical perspective it is seldom that major winter storms occur in short order.   We've seen two moderate impact events pull that off in the past; aggregating to a major by weight of both kind of thing.  But this thing on Sun/Mon ... then having an 06z GFS 5 days later is rarely observed.

[Prismshine Productions]

Last frame of the ICONic... Wonder how that moisture in the Gulf of Mexico would go if extrapolated

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[Prismshine Productions]

32 degree line down to freaking Tampa

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[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I know. He’s ridiculous.   

Pd2 sucked jmo, and this weekends is not much different.  Everyone knows I like powerful storms and that ain't it.  Hopeful the next is

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Pd2 sucked jmo, and this weekends is not much different.  Everyone knows I like powerful storms and that ain't it.  Hopeful the next is

PD II absolutely blew in my area.

[Torch Tiger]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

PD II absolutely blew in my area.

Yeah it was certainly worse for your area at the time. Some dont care how they get 10 or 20", I really only care about delivery

12/05 was a billion times more fun and dropped half the snow

[Torch Tiger]

Ofc I am not a snow-hound like you wackos, just want an actual crushing, wild storm, even if it flips

[Fozz]

44 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

32 degree line down to freaking Tampa

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I just learned the other day that January 1977 had flurries in the Bahamas

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

Ofc I am not a snow-hound like you wackos, just want an actual crushing, wild storm, even if it flips

6” of snow with 70mph winds?

[Prismshine Productions]

I just learned the other day that January 1977 had flurries in the Bahamas

Can you imagine that morning?

-Be in the Bahamas
-wake up
-see it is Snowing

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