Typhoon Tip Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 29 minutes ago, das said: Yep. Like I said in the post just above, I like the ingredients at play here. You look at the model output on those runs that show nothing and the somewhat obvious question is; where is the storm that should be right there? I like your phrase, “restoring system”. I am going to steal that. Yes! terrific way to put that. Non-linear wave functions, often expose their influence with that kind of transcendent appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 0z gfs has a big storm. But it hugs/occludes. Double barrel looking as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 20 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: 0z gfs has a big storm. But it hugs/occludes. Double barrel looking as well Perfect at this range for us "up and in" folks 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Perfect at this range for us "up and in" folks Let’s share the wealth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 06z GFS with an absolute monster Miller A for Feb 1. Wow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 24 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: 06z GFS with an absolute monster Miller A for Feb 1. Wow. That would be sweet, and still active after 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 29 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: 06z GFS with an absolute monster Miller A for Feb 1. Wow. Seems like five straight days or something where the GFS has had a big storm. I think the euro has had a signal, right? No one is really talked about the other model suites during this timeframe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Euro OP not biting, I’m not sure about ENS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago looks east to me but at this timeframe, it has time to tic NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, Kitz Craver said: 06z GFS with an absolute monster Miller A for Feb 1. Wow. There’s our perfect cane track 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 18 minutes ago, dendrite said: There’s our perfect cane track I hadn’t even looked at it that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago La la lock it in. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 15 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: La la lock it in. Looks 100x more interesting than this weekends swfe 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Looks 100x more interesting than this weekends swfe It's beautiful...for a D9 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It's beautiful...for a D9 storm. It’s been on and off on a bunch of models for a bit however. Let this weekend clear out first as the crux of this potential stems from the Arctic front passing today, traversing the TPV, coming back around and spawning the storm as I recall from yesterday’s reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lurker Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: It’s been on and off on a bunch of models for a bit however. Let this weekend clear out first as the crux of this potential stems from the Arctic front passing today, traversing the TPV, coming back around and spawning the storm as I recall from yesterday’s reading. Yeah, I know that the signal has been there, it’s just rich to see TT more interested in a fantasy event at this range than a big dog in his backyard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Wasn’t expecting the snow today. Small tiny flakes but pretty good intensity 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, I know that the signal has been there, it’s just rich to see TT more interested in a fantasy event at this range than a big dog in his backyard. hint: he's not interested in either and is doing his usual troll act 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 8 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: hint: he's not interested in either and is doing his usual troll act I know. He’s ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 39 minutes ago Share Posted 39 minutes ago It's a huge index signal centered around the 1st, + and/or - a couple of dates, which are derived from the ensembles. Somewhat ironic, the same ensemble mass -fields that are analyzed in deriving those same index values, do not actually carry a significant event through that period That is oddly troubling. Meanwhile, the operational versions have at least been off and on .. perhaps 50% of the time, plotting then not plotting significant events within that index-signaled window. That's what we are dealing with. Sometimes... the ensemble means will actually collapse toward the denser physically applied operational flagship versions. Rarer...but can happen in that direction. If that is going to be the case this time... proooobably start to see some at least tentative operational agreement on which dates to center on. So far...we've really seen 29/30th to 02/03 and all dates in between. Not really centering... This may also come together/coalesce in guidance better after we get this present major off the boards. I will also add... purely from a climatology of major events historical perspective it is seldom that major winter storms occur in short order. We've seen two moderate impact events pull that off in the past; aggregating to a major by weight of both kind of thing. But this thing on Sun/Mon ... then having an 06z GFS 5 days later is rarely observed. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted 5 minutes ago Share Posted 5 minutes ago Last frame of the ICONic... Wonder how that moisture in the Gulf of Mexico would go if extrapolatedSent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted 3 minutes ago Share Posted 3 minutes ago 32 degree line down to freaking TampaSent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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