January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, TheSnowman said:

I CAN’T LEAVE!!  I have the Busiest Week of the Year with the NAMM Convention through to Sunday!  A Private gig associated with the Games Sunday!  Then a gig Monday!  Then a Major Concert Wednesday.  AND my Parents are getting to the age where they can’t Shovel and you Can’t ollie that driveway so I’m always the one to go over and help!

 

 THIS IS A DISASTER if it comes!  

Perhaps the famous musician pays $20 to have his elderly folks plowed?

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How’s Reggie look tonight?

Meh at 6z. I'll take the ARW though 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ray is already thinking about Coke streamers on Cape Ann while he chokes on exhaust so it’s throwing him on tilt. 

I won't melt about that again until Saturday...promised last night.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I won't melt about that again until Saturday...promised last night.

Few more ticks and you’ll have no worries. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I won't melt about that again until Saturday...promised last night.

I’m just messing around. I don’t care if you’re worried about it. I honestly don’t think it’s worth getting worried about though this early. It’s a first world problem anyway….we could be staring at nothing on the horizon as an alternative like the last few years. 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

I CAN’T LEAVE!!  I have the Busiest Week of the Year with the NAMM Convention through to Sunday!  

We already have a NAM at home.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

NAM is just EPIC at 84.. ready to unload on us in 12 hours .. this is one of the few storms you can use it for a general idea in it's long range .. 

[Lucy Pull]

12z Nam looks to be coming in amped at end of range. Maybe even more than 6z euro. 

[TheSnowman]

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

you got yours

You mean 6 Storms where I got Screwed in row from Every Direction to where all of the Cape and SEMA and Everyone North and West of me and even SW of me has seen More Snow??  And then I get 7”!?  And I’m supposed to be HAPPY to have seen a 7” storm as my excitement in 4 straight winters of 1-3” Crap storms?!?  

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, TheSnowman said:

You mean 6 Storms where I got Screwed in row from Every Direction to where all of the Cape and SEMA and Everyone North and West of me and even SW of me has seen More Snow??  And then I get 7”!?  And I’m depressed to be HAPPY to have seen a 7” storm as my excitement in 4 straight winters of 1-3” Crap storms?!?  

yes

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

NAM is just EPIC at 84.. ready to unload on us in 12 hours .. this is one of the few storms you can use it for a general idea in it's long range .. 

Let’s crank the latent heating

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Decent trends overnight. 
 

we’re going to need some secondary development to truly make this substantial system, IMO.

Without that, you’re looking at a ceiling of like 5-10” as opposed to 10-20”

[Prismshine Productions]

Let’s crank the latent heating

Thundersnow would be epic... Never experienced it myself but would love to

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[TalcottWx]

2 hours ago, Zeus said:

No system-specific thread on this one yet, huh. What a superstitious bunch.

Zeus!!! 

[ORH_wxman]

I can’t remember the last time it was this cold right before a major storm hit.  Maybe Jan 2005. Jan 1996 was up there too for cold intensity. Both had highs around 10F the day before. 
 

This might be even colder though. Most guidance keeps single digits for highs on Saturday over interior. 

[Sled]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Perhaps the famous musician pays $20 to have his elderly folks plowed?

$20? What is this 1992?

[dendrite]

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

Thundersnow would be epic... Never experienced it myself but would love to

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk
 

What I mean is getting a lot of convection firing down south and having the latent heating (condensation) pump the downstream ridge more.

[The 4 Seasons]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We already have a NAM at home.

Nam at home:

[Go Kart Mozart]

The music man has created a thread!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Sled said:

$20? What is this 1992?

Yea. Send that mythical $20 plow guy my way…

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Sled said:

$20? What is this 1992?

Happy ending snow removal?

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Decent trends overnight. 
 

we’re going to need some secondary development to truly make this substantial system, IMO.

Without that, you’re looking at a ceiling of like 5-10” as opposed to 10-20”

I don't agree.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. Send that mythical $20 plow guy my way…

My mom would sometimes bribe the street plow guy in ORH with a $10 bill to get our driveway in storms circa early/mid 1990s. In bigger ones you might have to go with a 20. 
 

Before we got a snowblower at my current place, we got a guy to get our driveway for 40 bucks in March 2018…that was a pretty good price even then. That was pre-inflation though. 

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I can’t remember the last time it was this cold right before a major storm hit.  Maybe Jan 2005. Jan 1996 was up there too for cold intensity. Both had highs around 10F the day before. 
 

This might be even colder though. Most guidance keeps single digits for highs on Saturday over interior. 

Feb 1-3 2021 was pretty cold. It was in the mid teens to low 20s for highs right before the storm with lows in the single digits to around zero. Jan 28,29,30 was 15F, 18F, and 21F at ORH for a high. Not this cold, but still pretty damn cold. I remember it being frigid before that storm.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

My mom would sometimes bribe the street plow guy in ORH with a $10 bill to get our driveway in storms circa early/mid 1990s. In bigger ones you might have to go with a 20. 
 

Before we got a snowblower at my current place, we got a guy to get our driveway for 40 bucks in March 2018…that was a pretty good price even then. That was pre-inflation though. 

We had a few houses that would give me and my friends 20 bucks to shovel in the early 90s.. it was great!

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't agree.

Yeah we could slam 10-15” alone from the overrunning if you push that north a bit more. But we’d def need a CCB type sig to get going if you want KU type totals over 20”. 

[Wxbear25]

Idk what’s happening, but my posts are showing up weird when posting on Tapatalk…

[Typhoon Tip]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get that...I'm not arguing the semantics of it, all I am saying is that amplification of the MJO in phase 6-7 de-constructively interferes with east coast suppression, which is also true.

You know...everything in reality ... literally reality itself ( not talking semantics or figurative) came into existance because of a dizzying array of constructive and destructive interferences on-going, all scales great and small, and the history of that conflict gives birth to whatever is observed in the moment.    

Creation of the circumstances that lend to whatever weather is no different.    Destructively interfere" is true after lag ...  so, we are actually in phase 6's contribution spectrum... and phase 6 has this correlational according to CPC.   

Using temperature as proxy in the discussion, this doesn't strike me as supporting EC cyclogen?

But you know, also, I'm not sure I'd qualify this system as an EC cyclone. It may be that the anomalous cold is in competition with this signal, and that is why we have a storm - this above is lifting back over so to speak.  This thing is an southern ice storm/overrunning that surges NE.  Looks to me like an overrunning/isentropic event with vague Miller A that really not moving in a typical M-A track... 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, Wxbear25 said:

You don’t need long when you get hit with a hellacious front-end dump dropping [emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]]]-[emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]] ratio snow on hard-frozen ground

That WAA means serious business, probably going to see spots approaching [emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]]-[emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]]]” per hour at times


. Pro

We've entered the matrix

[msg112469]

Impressive 12Z! The next 12-24 should be interesting.

https://photos.app.goo.gl/XXamJpX7J6Pn8UxbA