January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

As someone who is pessimistic on this weekend threat, I'm not worried about the GFS.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

CMC slower, so thats a route to get the confluence to ease up a bit

That is the hope...said that earlier. If CMC is slower, it will probably deliver.

[SnowGoose69]

I would not worry a ton about the GFSAI.  If the EUROAI begins going flatter its more a concern.

[ineedsnow]

CMC looks great 

[SouthCoastMA]

Boom @ 150 with a 2ndary forming

[Spanks45]

CMC is kind of like PD 2003 storm, just lighter and a bit south.....a stronger southern system pushing a bit north would help a ton. Watching the radar loop from 2003, you can almost imagine that is what it would look like if the CMC run were to play out as is today at 12z

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is the hope...said that earlier. If CMC is slower, it will probably deliver.

Euro suite slowed down overnight which definitely helped getting the storm north. I think that’s definitely what we want, a bit slower evolution that still gets plenty of northern stream involved…but that delay will allow the TPV to lift northeast and ease some of the confluence over us. 

[CoastalWx]

Redevelops like the euro had with all that backside energy.

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I would not worry a ton about the GFSAI.  If the EUROAI begins going flatter its more a concern.

True, I was kinda worried to see that trend south..but I do trust the EUROAI more. 

[CoastalWx]

Days and days?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

CMC is a significant you can even say huge snowstorm up into NE Mass.. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Redevelops like the euro had with all that backside energy.

Congrats on Coke streamers mixed in with the synoptic precip

[dryslot]

Slow it even more, Another 24hrs, Give it some room.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Days and days?

Kevins dream storm, it may never end, no one will ever know

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Congrats on Coke streamers mixed in with the synoptic precip

 Hell of a CF near BOS verbatim. 

[MJO812]

Cmc goes from Sunday to Tuesday with 2 lows.

[JKEisMan]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Cmc goes from Sunday to Tuesday with 2 lows.

O Canada! That secondary pop would be amazing.

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Kevins dream storm, it may never end, no one will ever know

There is the DC to Boston snowstorm we have been missing for what seems decades now....

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

CMC is kind of like PD 2003 storm, just lighter and a bit south.....a stronger southern system pushing a bit north would help a ton. Watching the radar loop from 2003, you can almost imagine that is what it would look like if the CMC run were to play out as is today at 12z

 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc goes from Sunday to Tuesday with 2 lows.

Yea, this is just a mind field of porks jobs for me....first issue is getting it up here, then second issue is subsidence from the CJ.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Too bad it’s a week away, what a look. Feels like we had something similar in, what Jan/Feb 2011?

[ORH_wxman]

Give the way that evolves, that would have a high ceiling. You don’t necessarily see it this run on the QPF output…it’s “merely” a 7-12/8-14 type event (toss kuchera weenie maps which go wild with frigid temps) but you could potentially juice that up more with how that whole upper air evolves. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Theoretically, if you slowed this down even more, that secondary low would have time to amplify more, instead of basically skirting east. Probably asking a lot though 

[40/70 Benchmark]

@Sey-Mour SnowI understand you are a pro, but something is lost on you if you felt the need to shit on that sentiment. It's right.

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Yea, this is just a mind field of porks jobs for me....first issue is getting it up here, then second issue is subsidence from the CJ.

sending all the good vibes up there to you....If you are shoveling feet of snow, that probably means I am too

Icon and now the CMC ( I know.....), both storms have most under heavy snow and single digits, would be wild. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Give the way that evolves, that would have a high ceiling. You don’t necessarily see it this run on the QPF output…it’s “merely” a 7-12/8-14 type event (toss kuchera weenie maps which go wild with frigid temps) but you could potentially juice that up more with how that whole upper air evolves. 

Yea, slowing and allowing the N Stream to phase more to trigger Miller B redevelpment is a different ballgame.

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro suite slowed down overnight which definitely helped getting the storm north. I think that’s definitely what we want, a bit slower evolution that still gets plenty of northern stream involved…but that delay will allow the TPV to lift northeast and ease some of the confluence over us. 

Best of both worlds. Big cold and then significant snow.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@Sey-Mour SnowI understand you are a pro, but something is lost on you if you felt the need to shit on that sentiment. It's right.

If you still feel the same, I have nothing more to say, it’s lost on you.  Hopefully we can get you excited later in the week. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, slowing and allowing the N Stream to phase more to trigger Miller B redevelpment is a different ballgame.

Bingo…….

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

If you still feel the same, I have nothing more to say, it’s lost on you.  Hopefully we can get you excited later in the week. 

You clearly do not understand e MA climo and while the model had that snowfall distribution. 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Best of both worlds. Big cold and then significant snow.

also most already have a good amount of snow otg! this storm would be sweet if it happens!