January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Kitz Craver]

We don’t need hits quite yet, just positive trends

[Sugarloaf1989]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Change your screen name to Sugarloaf1996

1989 was the first year I skied there. Oddly my coldest skiing weather.  Close to -40F. December 1989.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

We don’t need hits quite yet, just positive trends

We’ve got that and then some 

[Kitz Craver]

Just now, Sugarloaf1989 said:

1989 was the first year I skied there. Oddly my coldest skiing weather.  Close to -40F.

I’ve done some -20, -30 stuff at Jay. Crazy cold man

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Well, a couple days ago…it looked like a straight forward big overrunning deal.  That’s not completely the case anymore.  So it has trended into something more complex. 

Which I don't think should have been a big surprise. That's how these setups tend to typically evolve. This is a setup in which I am very curious how the AI camp would perform...there is alot of physics at play here and even the traditional modeling can struggle in that sense...not to the fault of the models but more of a product of just a lack of more powerful computing (que quantum computing). 

If I had to guess, I think we continue seeing more bumps...I don't see a whole lot arguing for keeping this too far south (big change from what I was thinking a day or two ago).

[Sugarloaf1989]

10 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I’ve done some -20, -30 stuff at Jay. Crazy cold man

Two coldest days were at Sugarloaf.  December 1989 about -40F and January 2009 with my son. -24F on the car thermometer at Stratton Maine and -35F at Sugarloaf Summit.  Skiing with any speed caused chest pain from the cold. 

[Cyclone-68]

Is it correct to assume whoever ends up getting nailed with this that the “B” word will be used?

[UnitedWx]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like  1/4 inch maybe 1/2 from a squall last night 

1/2" in Sims and Westfield 

[Zeus]

3 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Is it correct to assume whoever ends up getting nailed with this that the “B” word will be used?

That term is reserved for when the wind criteria is met; accordingly, when the storm-focused thread reaches 100+ pages before the first flake falls, it'll be fine to deploy.

[Kitz Craver]

6 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Two coldest days were at Sugarloaf.  December 1989 about -40F and January 2009 with my son. -27F on the car thermometer at Stratton Maine and -35F at Sugarloaf Summit.  Skiing with any speed caused chest pain from the cold. 

Ice cream headaches on the lift, lol

[Sugarloaf1989]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

Ice cream headaches on the lift, lol

Green Mountain Freezer aka Green Mountain Flyer. At Jay Peak. 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Overnight -

 

The EC-AIFS has trended further south but also a lot more amped. 

the other major guidance has trended north and more amped.

There’s been an improved consensus.

 

I think it’s most telling to see the EC-AIFS amp up but that doesn’t translate to a track further north. This is important. 
 

I like the 6z EC-AIFS - its current depiction and QPF as a baseline from here.

I think this is a useful analysis because I tend to think that when they amp up, they move north and that is obviously not always the case. But just as someone who’s been watching the storms for four decades I think this will end up north of the baseline and southern New England will probably get a 6 inch plus snowstorm.

[Angus]

18 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Two coldest days were at Sugarloaf.  December 1989 about -40F and January 2009 with my son. -24F on the car thermometer at Stratton Maine and -35F at Sugarloaf Summit.  Skiing with any speed caused chest pain from the cold. 

Was out walking the dog this morning thinking about this - I have referenced it before on the board ... This week in 1982 at SLoaf, first time there, half dozen runs or so and bad frost bite each time (turned around and sent into lodge to warm up by the liftie) so unpleasant that I did not ski for another two years 83/84 season. I believe this stretch still remains record cold for the area.

[GCWarrior]

Now they delay or close schools for negative temps.  I think it was 1994 I remember waiting for the bus with temps in the -20ish range for almost a week.  I remember even inside the building it felt cold. 

[DavisStraight]

28 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Two coldest days were at Sugarloaf.  December 1989 about -40F and January 2009 with my son. -24F on the car thermometer at Stratton Maine and -35F at Sugarloaf Summit.  Skiing with any speed caused chest pain from the cold. 

We were skiing at Killington in brutal cold, at the top my friend got as hot chocolate and spilled some on his ski, he went to wipe it off and it was already frozen.

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, GCWarrior said:

Now they delay or close schools for negative temps.  I think it was 1994 I remember waiting for the bus with temps in the -20ish range for almost a week.  I remember even inside the building it felt cold. 

Did you walk to school through 3 feet of snow uphill both ways?

[40/70 Benchmark]

I could see something like this past weekend....but I think that is pretty much the ceiling. Be careful about people saying they think "it's coming north" because there is going to be some miscommunication. I envision a scenario where someone claims victory over a 5" snowfall, and then weenies are like "bust". If this thing gets up here, it's not going to be 20-30" like down in VA.

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could see something like this past weekend....but I think that is pretty much the ceiling. Be careful about people say they think "it's coming north" because there is going to be some misscommunicaton. I envision a scenario where someone claims victory over a 5" snowfall, and then weenies are like "bust". If this thing gets up here, it's not going to be 20-30" like down in VA.

We're not in a good spot for this one as it stands right now unless there are some changes overhead.

[GCWarrior]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Did you walk to school through 3 feet of snow uphill both ways?

LOL! I sound like an old man.  It was just different back then.  We still had snow days but cold days really weren't a thing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

We're not in a good spot for this one as it stands right now unless there are some changes overhead.

Frankly, I can't wait for it to pass so we can place the focus on the real potential next week.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could see something like this past weekend....but I think that is pretty much the ceiling. Be careful about people saying they think "it's coming north" because there is going to be some miscommunication. I envision a scenario where someone claims victory over a 5" snowfall, and then weenies are like "bust". If this thing gets up here, it's not going to be 20-30" like down in VA.

People also need to be vigilant about who’s posting and where. I’m sure they’ll be some vague “looks good” comments coming from a certain poster in NY, when in reality, it’s probably very different in this area 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

People also need to be vigilant about who’s posting and where. I’m sure they’ll be some vague “looks good” comments coming from a certain poster in NY, when in reality, it’s probably very different in this area 

I could even see that within our area...CT crew spiking while it's crap here.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could see something like this past weekend....but I think that is pretty much the ceiling. Be careful about people saying they think "it's coming north" because there is going to be some miscommunication. I envision a scenario where someone claims victory over a 5" snowfall, and then weenies are like "bust". If this thing gets up here, it's not going to be 20-30" like down in VA.

A major snowstorm is definitely a possibility in New England. Gulf systems love coming north 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

A major snowstorm is definitely a possibility in New England. Gulf systems love coming north 

Good luck.

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Frankly, I can't wait for it to pass so we can place the focus on the real potential next week.

Well, That is the one i was looking towards, I had mentioned our next shot was 2/1 or so, This one coming up has NYC-DC written all over it for a SECS, That cold dome over NNE is going to keep this one further to the south, Maybe it will get up in to Southern SNE to the pike area.

[Kitz Craver]

That’s why I keep specifying a significant hit, not 1-3” of arctic sand 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

Well, That is the one i was looking towards, I had mentioned our next shot was 2/1 or so, This one coming up has NYC-DC written all over it for a SECS, That cold dome over NNE is going to keep this one further to the south, Maybe it will get up in to Southern SNE to the pike area.

Exactly, but not huge amounts IMO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

That’s why I keep specifying a significant hit, not 1-3” of arctic sand 

Well, 5-7" is "significant", but I'm disappointed with that with 20" in VA.

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly, but not huge amounts IMO.

I agree, More into the northern envelope with heavier returns south down to DC.

[Kitz Craver]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, 5-7" is "significant", but I'm disappointed with that with 20" in VA.

Yeah if it plays out like that, I will be a bit butthurt that the Deep South is going historic