January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[dryslot]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Will do bro. Heading up Wednesday, so I’ll peak here and there. No worries either way. 

It should be great, Ive seen some vids of guys with gopros up there.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think CT-RI-SE MA could get a decent event, but tough sell points north.

Yup, said that a few posts back. At least as of now. It certainly could get shunted for sure. But there’s a shot it creeps north for sure.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looking further down the road, do we see another wind reversal in Feb?

 

 

Book it.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It should be great, Ive seen some vids of guys with gopros up there.

Yup, they’re in very good shape now. Looking forward to it for sure. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup, said that a few posts back. At least as of now. It certainly could get shunted for sure. But there’s a shot it creeps north for sure.  

I don't think you will get 2 feet like the mid atlantic, but certainly warning potential. Different story for me. This seems like a PD I or feb 2016 deal.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ahh ok. But this is kind of comical with what just happened this weekend.  Especially for your area. You were out of it right up to the 11th hour Saturday morning(we all pretty much were) …so that’s my point. 

If you recall my sentiment leading into that one, different ballgame. I started the thread and had my balls busted for doing so.

[ORH_wxman]

GEFS def came north a bit from 06z. There’s some hits in there now while 06z had almost unanimous whiffs. 
 

The risk is obviously suppression on this but it’s far from a done deal. PV is crazy cold with the press but it’s also moving NE with time and we don’t have quite the crazy exotic west based block like a Feb 2010…EPS is more bullish on the blocking which has kind of been a theme this winter  

[Fozz]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think you will get 2 feet like the mid atlantic, but certainly warning potential. Different story for me. This seems like a PD I or feb 2016 deal.

You think the mid-Atlantic is getting a HECS out of this? I might need to make plans yikes.

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you recall my sentiment leading into that one, different ballgame. I started the thread and had my balls busted for doing so.

I mean with regard to modeling..not your ideas. The modeling was a shut out(except for the machines) right up till 0z Saturday morning…then boom. Imo that isn’t a heavy lift with performances like what we just saw.  It’ll be interesting to see where it goes.   Will’s post sums it up well. 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think you will get 2 feet like the mid atlantic, but certainly warning potential. Different story for me. This seems like a PD I or feb 2016 deal.

It does feel that way.  I’m probably gonna miss it, unless the bulk comes(if it comes at all )Sunday afternoon. Irony is, I missed PD2 as well cuz I was up north. This might work out the same way lol. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

52 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Suppression season. 

Ice fishing through March? 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Fozz said:

You think the mid-Atlantic is getting a HECS out of this? I might need to make plans yikes.

Long way to go with all of this…we watch for all. But currently they’re definitely in a great spot. 

[mahk_webstah]

33 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The cmc doesn’t look that great to me. I bet that’s a lot of sand on the northern edge. And it also could be under doing the strength of the cold press.

I don’t know, I hate having to rely on certain features to move or come in less impressive.

Get it all out now. 

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Ice fishing through March? 

Definitely, Have 2 more trips planned. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs op crept north a bit. Still gonna be tough imo to get anything here.

Has a typical south icing event climatology look to me...   that is how they get their winter down there - arctic outbreak then overrunning gets going. It happens that way, but if the model's too aggressive with the cold loading et al the overrunning and wave transit latitude could be higher.  Sure.    

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Deep winter out there and the pattern looks good for it to continue. 

[Fozz]

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Long way to go with all of this…we watch for all. But currently they’re definitely in a great spot. 

Yeah the UKMET is 18-24” for the whole region. Probably a best case scenario which also brings MECS totals to SNE. I might have to check the flights if this keeps up.

[Ocean Effect]

Euro AI is bullish

[brooklynwx99]

AIFS might be the most ridiculous shit i have ever seen

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Doesn’t help that the general public already is expecting a monster snow storm either. Weather apps idk which one are calling for 14-17” for CT. And social media is already talking about it. 

What???  No one is calling for that nor is any app

[Fozz]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

AIFS might be the most ridiculous shit i have ever seen

It’s like 2009-10 down south all over again plus 2014-15 up here all at once.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, Fozz said:

It’s like 2009-10 down south all over again plus 2014-15 up here all at once.

i mean, you have overrunning and then a rotting, highly anomalous block with +PNA due to tropical forcing

[Fozz]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean, you have overrunning and then a rotting, highly anomalous block with +PNA due to tropical forcing

Also stays below freezing for most of us from Friday to the end of the run.

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I mean with regard to modeling..not your ideas. The modeling was a shut out(except for the machines) right up till 0z Saturday morning…then boom. Imo that isn’t a heavy lift with performances like what we just saw.  It’ll be interesting to see where it goes.   Will’s post sums it up well. 

What do you think my ideas are based on?  I liked that threat because the ridge out west was tiling back negative, as opposed it's predecessors, where it was positively leaning onto the west coast and left less adequate wave spacing. We didn't have a PV in southern Quebec. But hopefully Will is right and the vortex backs enough NE.

[CoastalWx]

Like @wx2fishsaid to me, I may have to beat up my snowblower again if that happens.

[Damage In Tolland]

49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean, close enough to watch, but certainly needs work...doesn't look to be much room to me.

Not a suppressive type pattern . It’ll likely snow at least into SNE if not CNE

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, Ocean Effect said:

Euro AI is bullish

New 12z?

[powderfreak]

Ha.

Suppression depression.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Not a suppressive type pattern . It’ll likely snow at least into SNE if not CNE

Snow, sure....but how much? I'm not suggesting you eat cirrus. Not at all.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Snow, sure....but how much? I'm not suggesting you eat cirrus. Not at all.

Oh ok. Seemed like you and Sllot were keeping down south. I’m not saying 2-3 feet are coming.. but I’d bet it snows this weekend