January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

Yeah our buddy Cleetus was mentionig a cutter. Hence my response.

Maybe Moonshine?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Looks like some fun in the extended range. 

[Typhoon Tip]

That's likely overcooked in the GFS handling... tho event(s) cannot be ruled out prior to the 27th-ish, given the crazy thermal gradient/baroclinic potential between Manitoba and the Gulf that will preside thru the continental midriff latitudes.  The flow shall remain fast as that gradient in large part resolves itself in the form of huge geostrophic baseline wind velocities.... that in and of itself lends to less super large very organized cyclogenic results.   I like morphing that into an over runner/multi wave type thing.   

The bigger signal with multi variant telecon source/other techniques overwhelmingly flags the 27th thru Feb 1+  ...  29th -ish is like a quasar on JWST.   Mentioned this early ...now the 12z GFS with a first stab ( not to be taken literally of course - ) is close to the eye-candy, full on capture subsume historically phased bomb scenario...  This period of time at the end of the month is the most elaborate converging teleconnector scenario I've seen in a few seasons .   interesting

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's likely overcooked in the GFS handling... tho event(s) cannot be ruled out prior to the 27th-ish, given the crazy thermal gradient/baroclinic potential between Manitoba and the Gulf that will preside thru the continental midriff latitudes.  The flow shall remain fast as that gradient in large part resolves itself in the form of huge geostrophic baseline wind velocities.... that in and of itself lends to less super large very organized cyclogenic results.   I like morphing that into an over runner/multi wave type thing.   

The bigger signal with multi variant telecon source/other techniques overwhelmingly flags the 27th thru Feb 1+  ...  29th -ish is like a quasar on JWST.   Mentioned this early ...now the 12z GFS with a first stab ( not to be taken literally of course - ) is close to the eye-candy, full on capture subsume historically phased bomb scenario...  This period of time at the end of the month is the most elaborate converging teleconnector scenario I've seen in a few seasons .   interesting

You'e been all over that John, nice.

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You'e been all over that John, nice.

well, you and others are doing fine, too.  

I mean we'll see?    we've seen unusual behaviors where varying elaboration/coherence morph before there can be a realized event.  That's been a thing in recency ( decadal ). The telecons come in and out of signal, doing so before there's been enough time to realize correlated events.   fascinating if frustrating. 

So for now ...it is what it is

[CoastalWx]

Euro is cold and dry then ends winter. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's likely overcooked in the GFS handling... tho event(s) cannot be ruled out prior to the 27th-ish, given the crazy thermal gradient/baroclinic potential between Manitoba and the Gulf that will preside thru the continental midriff latitudes.  The flow shall remain fast as that gradient in large part resolves itself in the form of huge geostrophic baseline wind velocities.... that in and of itself lends to less super large very organized cyclogenic results.   I like morphing that into an over runner/multi wave type thing.   

The bigger signal with multi variant telecon source/other techniques overwhelmingly flags the 27th thru Feb 1+  ...  29th -ish is like a quasar on JWST.   Mentioned this early ...now the 12z GFS with a first stab ( not to be taken literally of course - ) is close to the eye-candy, full on capture subsume historically phased bomb scenario...  This period of time at the end of the month is the most elaborate converging teleconnector scenario I've seen in a few seasons .   interesting

another animation, I know, but this is how you get a MECS. retrograding Scandi block, 50/50 ULL, PNA rising

nothing is guaranteed, but this is how you pull it off

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is cold and dry then ends winter. 

Euro shouldn't be looked at anymore. 

Only the AI models

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is cold and dry then ends winter. 

I wouldn't expect guidance to pick up on any Strat shenanigans just yet....give it another couple of weeks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't expect guidance to pick up on any Strat shenanigans just yet....give it another couple of weeks.

There actually is an emergent signal already....maybe it gets abandoned at some point, but this should ultimately grow.

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is cold and dry then ends winter. 

Good thing it’s sucked lately. 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

another animation, I know, but this is how you get a MECS. retrograding Scandi block, 50/50 ULL, PNA rising

nothing is guaranteed, but this is how you pull it off

I’d want to se the trough axis 500 miles west

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Good thing it’s sucked lately. 

With any luck at all, March 2018 incoming....I'm telling you, this is glaring.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d want to see my post count 5000 less

I'm sure Allison would agree....probably even more.

[Baroclinic Zone]

The nuke popping up on GFS looks like fun.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm sure Allison would agree....probably even more.

I’m still eh with this pattern. Sort of agree with vortex95. 

[Hoth]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

With any luck at all, March 2018 incoming....I'm telling you, this is glaring.

Hopefully a slightly colder version.

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m still eh with this pattern. Sort of agree with vortex95. 

Hey, we’ll take our chances. We’ve seen and had much worse. Looks pretty decent. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Hopefully a slightly colder version.

We'll see...gotta slow the flow down some...will be tough to pull off if that doesn't happen.

[bristolri_wx]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro shouldn't be looked at anymore. 

Only the AI models

How do we know you’re not an AI bot from the future, here to warn us about snowless 70 degree January days in Central Park in the year 2029?

[MJO812]

Deep winter

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

With any luck at all, March 2018 incoming....I'm telling you, this is glaring.

Would be great - 4 huge storms that month.  Would've been nice to have gotten all 4 but the 2 that reached here totaled 36.4".

[J Paul Gordon]

Below normal through mid February, at least. Will there be mildish days here and there? Sure, but it doesn't look like torch time any time soon.

 

[Snowcrazed71]

26 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Below normal through mid February, at least. Will there be mildish days here and there? Sure, but it doesn't look like torch time any time soon.

 

Yeah but the pope said once we get to February we're back to warmer temps. Of course I'm not buying it and just not seeing what he's seeing. But he did say that, a few times.

[Typhoon Tip]

Meanwhile the numerical indices are even more aggressive with the month's end -week signal.   

Don't mean to come off a way about it but ... I'm not personally worried about a random Euro run or two, two weeks before said index window ... Based on those, this operational run is an outlier for it's last 7 days.  

If the indexes change that's another story but the current divorced operational Euro is really too excessive for belief. Either it corrects ... or the less likely, seldom seen wholesale mass backed indexes go toward a single operational paranoid run. haha 

[CoastalWx]

I don’t know I think the pattern is meh.  I kind of side with 95. Even when it tries to get favorable, there’s still crap to inhibit it.

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t know I think the pattern is meh.  I kind of side with 95. Even when it tries to get favorable, there’s still crap to inhibit it.

Gfs says big storm next weekend 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs says big storm next weekend 

Ya that's the big qpf one we've been waiting for .. Monster qpf potential .. just have to see where it tracks.. Major hit verbatim at 18z for New England

[MJO812]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya that's the big qpf one we've been waiting for .. Monster qpf potential .. just have to see where it tracks.. Major hit verbatim at 18z for New England

Better press than 12z where it was cutting.