January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

Yeah our buddy Cleetus was mentionig a cutter. Hence my response.

Maybe Moonshine?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Looks like some fun in the extended range. 

[Typhoon Tip]

That's likely overcooked in the GFS handling... tho event(s) cannot be ruled out prior to the 27th-ish, given the crazy thermal gradient/baroclinic potential between Manitoba and the Gulf that will preside thru the continental midriff latitudes.  The flow shall remain fast as that gradient in large part resolves itself in the form of huge geostrophic baseline wind velocities.... that in and of itself lends to less super large very organized cyclogenic results.   I like morphing that into an over runner/multi wave type thing.   

The bigger signal with multi variant telecon source/other techniques overwhelmingly flags the 27th thru Feb 1+  ...  29th -ish is like a quasar on JWST.   Mentioned this early ...now the 12z GFS with a first stab ( not to be taken literally of course - ) is close to the eye-candy, full on capture subsume historically phased bomb scenario...  This period of time at the end of the month is the most elaborate converging teleconnector scenario I've seen in a few seasons .   interesting

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's likely overcooked in the GFS handling... tho event(s) cannot be ruled out prior to the 27th-ish, given the crazy thermal gradient/baroclinic potential between Manitoba and the Gulf that will preside thru the continental midriff latitudes.  The flow shall remain fast as that gradient in large part resolves itself in the form of huge geostrophic baseline wind velocities.... that in and of itself lends to less super large very organized cyclogenic results.   I like morphing that into an over runner/multi wave type thing.   

The bigger signal with multi variant telecon source/other techniques overwhelmingly flags the 27th thru Feb 1+  ...  29th -ish is like a quasar on JWST.   Mentioned this early ...now the 12z GFS with a first stab ( not to be taken literally of course - ) is close to the eye-candy, full on capture subsume historically phased bomb scenario...  This period of time at the end of the month is the most elaborate converging teleconnector scenario I've seen in a few seasons .   interesting

You'e been all over that John, nice.

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You'e been all over that John, nice.

well, you and others are doing fine, too.  

I mean we'll see?    we've seen unusual behaviors where varying elaboration/coherence morph before there can be a realized event.  That's been a thing in recency ( decadal ). The telecons come in and out of signal, doing so before there's been enough time to realize correlated events.   fascinating if frustrating. 

So for now ...it is what it is