January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Are you trying to tell us something? We all support you and you’re safe here. 

He has friends here if need be

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Models haven't gotten worse. We just track stuff much further out than we used to. 144 hours used to be utter clown range but now it’s prob akin to like 108-120 from a decade or 15 years ago. And like 96 hours a couple decade ls ago. 
 

There’s a lot of threats back then that didn’t even appear until inside 6 days. The Feb 2013 blizzard didn’t show up until about 132-138 hours on the euro (and it was completely by itself for a few runs too)….Feb 2006 didn’t show up until about 108 hours out. A lot of our SWFEs back in the late 2000s/early 2010s didn’t stop trending hard untie inside 36 hours. Also we had far fewer model runs back then so less data to parse creating a veneer of stability. 

It's an interesting psycho-babble thing ... it is.  I mean, it's like that comedy bit by Louis C.K. where he outlines a flight and a passenger, never having been exposed to this technology whereby he can access his iphone while in flight, throws shade and criticizes the airline and attendants because 10 minutes into usage a couple internet pages 404 errored.  "This sucks!   This is an outrage! This is total bullshit.."   10 min ago, this passenger had zero awareness they could access the internet, from their iphone, while sitting in a chair, at 30 thousand feet, moving 500 mph ...   Louis goes on to muse.  Absolutely fucking hilarious as he exposes these entitled oblivion perspectives put on by this scowl-faced entitled person in square-mouthed rage...

But something similar happens with this technology in modeling. For some reason, folks tend to  less respectful, acting in a kind of indignant entitlement to the advantages and then criticizing it all without a realistic perspective.  

Technology and eases that it provides ... it tends to cancel humility. 

Personally ... the models are hugely improved ( actually ) compared to 20 years ago.  However, there are CC related changes - also - that I suspect are relatively new in the history of the modeling tech, and there's some discovery there/user experience-related.  We always used to know/have a feel for how things would outcome, based upon history of performance ...  Those histories are less reliable, because the patterns are behaving differently - even if subtle and idiosyncratically, this appears to have a disproportionately larger impact on user experience, because those expected behaviors are not qualifying as well.

This gives a faux impression of models sucking... heh.  It's really more that the models are improving, and are being particularly challenged at the same time.  But the users are suffering some 'chair at 30 k feet/500 mph' oblivion, too

[ORH_wxman]

We used to get fake diamond dust all the time when I was living in Holden in the late 80s. It was really just some crappy snowflakes though which would happen when it got really frigid (usually low single digits or below zero), but not nearly cold enough for true Diamond dust. The house was kind of in an elevated valley around 1,000 feet so it was prob ideal for getting that type of setup. 

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

A lot of people confuse true DD with very light snow. It can get tricky in the mountains too because at cold temps even with weak lift you can squeeze out some snowflakes even with barely the hint of a cloud. But DD is simply ice fog. I think the Inuit term for it was pogonip.

But as you know it’s difficult to freeze tiny water droplets because of their curvature. You need really cold temps to get them to spontaneously freeze. That’s why it’s usually around -30 or colder and in valleys so it can saturate and go immediately to ice form instead of supercooled droplets. 

 

Lot more rime ice when your up in the mountains, You can pick out the difference much easier.

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He has friends here if need be

weather weenie is sometimes a literal phrase.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Are you trying to tell us something? We all support you and you’re safe here. 

The point is there was no week plus of 50’s and higher like some circles had. There was never a debate that it wasn’t going to go AN for a week or so . The argument was that it wasn’t going to be some all out furnace for 7-11 days . It wasn’t . Just a temporary mild up pattern 

[CoastalWx]

Icon gives some snow ern areas Sunday night 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Icon gives some snow ern areas Sunday night 

Reggie is decent for Saturday PM over a chunk of SNE. Prob 1-2” of paste. It looks very threatening for beyond that but it’s 84 hours on the rgem. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Lot more rime ice when your up in the mountains, You can pick out the difference much easier.

Yeah…there’s lot of freezing fog in the valleys and at high elevation making rime ice. Freak and MWN post a lot of epic rime pics. Obviously that’s all supercooled droplets needing a cold surface to freeze/deposit on.

I remember Fort Kent Will posting some good true IC pics (maybe vids) awhile back when he still lived up there.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The point is there was no week plus of 50’s and higher like some circles had. There was never a debate that it wasn’t going to go AN for a week or so . The argument was that it wasn’t going to be some all out furnace for 7-11 days . It wasn’t . Just a temporary mild up pattern 

Your one day to break the streak was 38°

It’s 7 days straight where most people work and live. +2.7° coming into today for BDL MTD.

[moneypitmike]

Just got in from a walk---felt great at 46*.  Solid snow-cover will be taking a beating today/tomorrow.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Your one day to break the streak was 38°

It’s 7 days straight where most people work and live. +2.7° coming into today for BDL MTD.

Is that much AN furnace or just mild?

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He has friends here if need be

In low places?

[Typhoon Tip]

I just wanna point something out before we move on from the 15/16th in the spirit of philosophy, objectivity and fairness.

These storm dates did not fail.  

What failed was our "regional backyard" ?   I get the importance of actually getting it into our backyard - but that is unfortunately a myopic and frankly dim intelligence about the reality we are a part.   This is the NAM's 24 hours - I'm just using it to make the point.   There is a storm resulting from anticipating amplitude from over a week ago.   Meteorologically, this is acceptable, particularly considering that this period was sussed out .. perhaps even 10 days prior.  Again, it just ended up in southern Ontario and lower Quebec

[weatherwiz]

12z GFS looking like a few spots may be able to grab a few inches Saturday too. That is some macho vort 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I just wanna point something out before we move on from the 15/16th in the spirit of philosophy, objectivity and fairness.

These storm dates did not fail.  

What failed was our "regional backyard" ?   I get the importance of actually getting it into our backyard - but that is unfortunately a myopic and frankly dim intelligence about the reality we are a part.   This is the NAM's 24 hours - I'm just using it to make the point.   There is a storm resulting from anticipating amplitude from over a week ago.   Meteorologically, this is acceptable, particularly considering that this period was sussed out .. perhaps even 10 days prior.  Again, it just ended up in southern Ontario and lower Quebec

The energy doesn't really coalesce until the Maritimes, though. Just didn't dig enough.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Your one day to break the streak was 38°

It’s 7 days straight where most people work and live. +2.7° coming into today for BDL MTD.

Huh ..  you know, I'm finding I have to remind myself that it is mid January, so 48/32 is pretty damn hot relative to climo.  

Definitely some recency bias on my part because we've had a lot of these 40s days in January's in these years, and I'm not appreciating the 45+ers as much as I  perhaps should be.

[ORH_wxman]

GFS def trying to give 1-3” of paste too on Saturday for a large chunk of SNE. 

[WxWatcher007]

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

A lot of people confuse true DD with very light snow. It can get tricky in the mountains too because at cold temps even with weak lift you can squeeze out some snowflakes even with barely the hint of a cloud. But DD is simply ice fog. I think the Inuit term for it was pogonip.

But as you know it’s difficult to freeze tiny water droplets because of their curvature. You need really cold temps to get them to spontaneously freeze. That’s why it’s usually around -30 or colder and in valleys so it can saturate and go immediately to ice form instead of supercooled droplets. 

 

Yeah I’ve seen the very light snow happen too. The tell there is temperatures aren’t nearly as cold as they need to be. I’ve seen light snow with literal surface moisture with mostly sunny skies above. Pretty wild coming from a place like CT. 

The time I saw DD it might have been -15 or so on the car thermometer, but it was like driving through a brief fog. Then I think I saw it on my property once but I’m less sure about that now given the temperature (around -10 for that).

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah…there’s lot of freezing fog in the valleys and at high elevation making rime ice. Freak and MWN post a lot of epic rime pics. Obviously that’s all supercooled droplets needing a cold surface to freeze/deposit on.

I remember Fort Kent Will posting some good true IC pics (maybe vids) awhile back when he still lived up there.

Haven’t seen any of that locally. That would be cool. 

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

12z GFS looking like a few spots may be able to grab a few inches Saturday too. That is some macho vort 

Ya GFS looks great Saturday 

[MJO812]

Gfs is coming in west for sunday

[ineedsnow]

gfs will probably be good for Sunday night

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Gfs is coming in west for sunday

Shocked.....

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The energy doesn't really coalesce until the Maritimes, though. Just didn't dig enough.

Yup..

and I'm also not really too focused on where it reaches max amplitude.   What going to transpire ...literally, right next door in the Meteorological context, is sufficient for a significant snowfall. -

but to your implicit point, we got screwed.  

Nonetheless, there is/was value in having recognized this period, absolutely. 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Gfs is coming in west for sunday

Going to be much better i think

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS def trying to give 1-3” of paste too on Saturday for a large chunk of SNE. 

Isn’t it more Saturday night?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup..

and I'm also not really too focused on where it reaches max amplitude.   What going to transpire ...literally, right next door in the Meteorological context, is sufficient for a significant snowfall. -

but to your implicit point, we got screwed.  

Nonetheless, there is/was value in having recognized this period, absolutely. 

Yes, it's not like the potential went unrealized on a hemispheric scale...

[weatherwiz]

Much better digging by 12z Sunday and it looks lie the trough is becoming neutrally tilted as its crossing AL/GA....I love me some of that look.

[MJO812]

Coastal storm incoming on the gfs

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is that much AN furnace or just mild?

Well BDL is staring a +18 or so in the face today. That would put them at +3.8 mtd. That would also be their largest +/- departure since -20 on 12/5. It’s been a pretty warm week for approaching the climo min of the season.

It’ll be interesting to see if we can knock the positive departures back down to normal by the end of the month.