January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Another month or two, we might be able to get some good drought discussions going.  

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

12z gfs is one of the ugliest op runs I’ve ever seen. 

Lock it in

[CoastalWx]

Nice out today. Can already feel a little sun angle. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

12z gfs is one of the ugliest op runs I’ve ever seen. 

Well even when it wasn’t ugly, it didn’t happen either , so I mean that ugly run could fail too…or not lol. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Nice out today. Can already feel a little sun angle. 

Take the lawn chair out as Paul suggested. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm seeing nothing but negative interference among an anomalously fast S/W succession off the NE Pacific ... effectively preventing organized cyclogenesis either in time, or not at all, right out to the end of both this 12z GGEM and GFS operational model runs.    The former goes out to D10 ... the succeeding week bears no significant change in that behavior by the GFS.

Not sure what is causing it, but just observing 4 major waves passing through the +PNA trough domain in just 100 or so hours worth is an overly crowded tussle creating in-harmonic dissonance

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well even when it wasn’t ugly, it didn’t happen either , so I mean that ugly run could fail too…or not lol. 

Difference this time is Canadian looks the same through day 10.  We shall see… 

[mahk_webstah]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Unlikely we get anything of note. I’ll still hold out a little hope for 1/18-1/19 but we need some good trends on that over the next day or two. 

Absolutely I understand that. I just think in general, and I’m not talking about you because you are probably the most grounded person in here, we tend to live in the future.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Absolutely I understand that. I just think in general, and I’m not talking about you because you are probably the most grounded person in here, we tend to live in the future.

Sometimes you just see things for what they are and can call it out. 

[brooklynwx99]

hopefully we can eke something out before the 20th... the pattern looks to open up after the 22nd as more moisture gets involved and cold becomes more entrenched

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So you’re writing off the next 9 days, today?  I’m surprised. 

I’ll give 1/18-19 another day or so to trend better but otherwise yeah, we wait until post-1/20

[Typhoon Tip]

and frankly, that characteristic of negative interference, in and of itself, has been the only aspect that has demonstrated solid unflappable continuity. 

 

[weathafella]

My approach is knowing I have no control over meteorological destiny so I shall enjoy each day I am well and reasonably strong.  I used to get upset over this but much less so now.  

[CoastalWx]

It’s been real easy the last 4 years to call out stuff that isn’t favorable. This year it’s cold, but as many of us have said…there’s tons of interference. Easy to see.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It’s been real easy the last 4 years to call out stuff that isn’t favorable. This year it’s cold, but as many of us have said…there’s tons of interference. Easy to see.

The funny part is it never corrects itself. I’ve seen countless threats that had interference but it was overcome either due to vort strength or one of the shortwaves changed slightly. But we’ve never trended away from it recently. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The funny part is it never corrects itself. I’ve seen countless threats that had interference but it was overcome either due to vort strength or one of the shortwaves changed slightly. But we’ve never trended away from it recently. 

Yeah and I think that’s been engrained in our DNA….i know for me it has….but shit…nothing has worked out. 
 

At least the other seasons just had garbage patterns/airmass which kind of made for easy predictions.

I’m wondering if part of the reason are these tendencies to get those ULLs moving west and elongating near and south of AK. It kills any ridging that allows for more prolonged meridional flow and introduces more interference. 

[Damage In Tolland]

24 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Come in here this morning and had to read several pages of grab ass. A couple is acceptable,  even a few, but this is excessive...

Who’s ass you grabbing?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

17 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

12z gfs is one of the ugliest op runs I’ve ever seen. 

It’s been steadfast over the last two days. Just complete garbage 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The funny part is it never corrects itself. I’ve seen countless threats that had interference but it was overcome either due to vort strength or one of the shortwaves changed slightly. But we’ve never trended away from it recently. 

I just posted similar observations about that aspect re recency of the model runs a couple posts ago...

I also think that the general user that is "emotionally" triggered by this engagement needs to wait on that changing... because the sooner they accept that is needed, that will go some ways toward ameliorating their angst - and improving their moods. 

But hey... sometimes I wonder if that's part of the fun for them.  Leaving them selves open.  I dunno

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah and I think that’s been engrained in our DNA….i know for me it has….but shit…nothing has worked out. 
 

At least the other seasons just had garbage patterns/airmass which kind of made for easy predictions.

I’m wondering if part of the reason are these tendencies to get those ULLs moving west and elongating near and south of AK. It kills any ridging that allows for more prolonged meridional flow and introduces more interference. 

Meridional flow definitely overcomes a lot of imperfections. 

[Damage In Tolland]

There’s literally little to no snow opportunities thru day 10-12. I’ve never seen it quite this bad in terms of no hope or opportunity 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Probably best to close the shades for the next 10 days and hope that maybe the last week of the month can offer something.

”hoping” something changes before then isn’t forecasting. It’s wishing. Look at the models. It’s not even particularly close to anything interesting 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Meridional flow definitely overcomes a lot of imperfections. 

We haven’t been able to get a stable ridge out west and get a shortwave pipeline going. It lasts for a day and something always mucks it up. However we’ll get the cold because of the -WPO but we can’t sustain a better +PNA or even -EPO for that matter. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

We haven’t been able to get a stable ridge out west and get a shortwave pipeline going. It lasts for a day and something always mucks it up. However we’ll get the cold because of the -WPO but we can’t sustain a better +PNA or even -EPO for that matter. 

Yeah which is why I’m looking forward to the gradient pattern at this point. We might get a cutter but at least there will be QPF events to track in that type of pattern. 

[weatherwiz]

25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Take the lawn chair out as Paul suggested. 

May need the tanning oil too 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah which is why I’m looking forward to the gradient pattern at this point. We might get a cutter but at least there will be QPF events to track in that type of pattern. 

The main miss for me so far is the HUGE -WPO this season...I was thinking modestly positive in the mean. I wish I were right bc although it would be milder, we can pretty much guarantee that there would have been more snow. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Funny...the main culprit for how shitty our winters had been was the string of +WPO seasons...well, in the ultimate FU, Mother nature said "here you go".

[Kitz Craver]

Man it’s gonna be balls cold and brown. 

[SJonesWX]

2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Let’s do it! Sey-Less snow or “Sey-Mour snow than Methuen”

I think you should go with Sey-Mour Snow ThanThePope

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

Man it’s gonna be balls cold and brown. 

Balls deep and brown?