January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Damage In Tolland]

IPA’s 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

We’re getting there.  That’s my take and all I can feel confident in.  For now, I’ll appreciate the melt underfoot and get ready for what’s next.  Plenty of football to distract the most distraught this weekend.  We have a lot of good potential that is holding as we get closer.  Don’t let perfect be the enemy of good.

Man, 8 holiday seasons I have been at this house, and it's the first time I had difficulty extracting my xmas light laser stake from the ground....I figured after a couple of warm days, now was the time...but I still had to pour 3 full glasses of hot water at the base of it and pull with all of my might with gloves on...finally. Ground is really frozen with the lack of deep snow cover and consistent cold...the likes of which I haven't seen in a long time. Going to be an absolutely dreadful pothole season.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GFS is explosive but I think it'll be tough to pull off... I think the 18th holds better potential with the 16th trying to act as some confluence

Worry the 18th is congrats NNE. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Worry the 18th is congrats NNE. 

I'd rather worry about that than confluence....SSTs down near 40 and dropping, so getting tough to totally bone me that way....

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, 8 holiday seasons I have been at this house, and it's the first time I had difficulty extracting my xmas light laser stake from the ground....I figured after a couple of warm days, now was the time...but I still had to pour 3 full glasses of hot water at the base of it and pull with all of my might with gloves on...finally. Ground is really frozen with the lack of deep snow cover and consistent cold...the likes of which I haven't seen in a long time. Going to be an absolutely dreadful pothole season.

Yeah top half inch is thawed here but that just makes it a mud fest now with it frozen below. Took the lights off today. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd rather worry about that than confluence.

Agree. But if the first one misses and the next one is rain I’ll be ready to set all of Norfolk County on fire. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah top half inch is thawed here but that just makes it a mud fest now with it frozen below. Took the lights off today. 

Yea, just did all of the lights.

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Worry the 18th is congrats NNE. 

true. at least the antecedent airmass is better... hopefully we can get some height suppression beforehand, should be a beefy vort

[wxsniss]

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

We’re getting there.  That’s my take and all I can feel confident in.  For now, I’ll appreciate the melt underfoot and get ready for what’s next.  Plenty of football to distract the most distraught this weekend.  We have a lot of good potential that is holding as we get closer.  Don’t let perfect be the enemy of good.

Agree, best look in weeks... 

Lots of chefs in kitchen in a more favorable longwave pattern = potential, even if there is interference.

At moment (and will obviously evolve this far out), EPS and EPS-AI hinting at a SNE grazer 16th followed by at least CNE/NNE hit 18th, but tons of scatter around those focal points with huge range in ceiling as we're seeing seeing on OP runs.

I too am hoping to at least get the 6" monkey off our back, nearing 4 years now... and in the shorter term, let's get <32F by kickoff Sunday.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Posting something showing a trend or what not is not a forecast. You have no idea what he forecastsor what his record is. So it’s kind of shitty for you to attack his expertise. It’s a Weather forum. This forum really shouldn’t be used as a grade of people’s forecasting skills, unless they put their balls out there.

If you want to grade people on how they talk about the pattern, feel free to go ahead and personally I think he knows his stuff because when I see his posts describing the pattern, I don’t necessarily disagree with his reasoning. So don’t be a dick and attack someone who is a degreed met. This field already has enough dicks in it.

He likes to point out the avenues to a successful solution...it's not wrong, per se...it's easy for people to project frustration onto that type of poster after 8 consecutive dud seasons. I think he knows his stuff....but I did roll my eyes when he mentioned his college accolades....no one cares about your GPA in any field...it's all about how practically skilled you are, and can other human begins stand you. There are plenty of degreed mets that I would forecast the pants off of with respect to winter weather in this region....synoptically, or seasonally. At the end of the day, how passionate are you and how obsessively do you seek to hone your craft. Those are the two most important boxes to check emphatically. This can't just be a job or hobby....weather needs to be a clinical affliction to excel.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He likes to point out the avenues to a successful solution...it's not wrong, per se...it's easy for people to project frustration onto that type of poster after 8 consecutive dud seasons. I think he knows his stuff....but I did roll my eyes when he mentioned his college accolades....no one cares about your GPA in any field...it's all about how practically skilled you are, and can other human begins stand you. There are plenty of degreed mets that I would forecast the pants off of with respect to winter weather in this region....synoptically, or seasonally. At the end of the day, how passionate are you and how obsessively to you seek to hone your craft. Those are the two most important boxes to check emphatically. 

it was mentioned because my qualifications were questioned, as if the degree or title I earned was not deserved. it absolutely was

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

it was because my qualifications were questioned, as if the degree or title I earned was not deserved. it absolutely was

I didn't see the interaction....I'm just using your comment as a launching pad to make that comment. Nothing personal at all.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He likes to point out the avenues to a successful solution...it's not wrong, per se...it's easy for people to project frustration onto that type of poster after 8 consecutive dud seasons. I think he knows his stuff....but I did roll my eyes when he mentioned his college accolades....no one cares about your GPA in any field...it's all about how practically skilled you are, and can other human begins stand you. There are plenty of degreed mets that I would forecast the pants off of with respect to winter weather in this region....synoptically, or seasonally. At the end of the day, how passionate are you and how obsessively do you seek to hone your craft. Those are the two most important boxes to check emphatically. This can't just be a job or hobby....weather needs to be a clinical affliction to excel.

Because I think he got defensive, and it really was all uncalled for. I can understand being really hurt and pissed off and him just trying to defend himself. That’s why I said don’t engage. That must be the parent in me when my 8 1/2 year-old diva daughter tries to piss me off lol. Sometimes you’re better off not engaging and let them look like fools.

[40/70 Benchmark]

@brooklynwx99 I have all the respect in the world for you guys that are bright enough to earn that degree because I am not. I could not ever do it. I am truly obsessed with certain aspects of meteorology and I have good writing skills, that's it.

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, it is unfair to grade someone's forecasting ability if they aren't actually issuing forecasts on here. Talking about the pattern isn't issuing a forecast. You can disagree with their pattern analysis, but it's not fair to call it a forecast if they were just analyzing an ensemble run or a model run.

Some mets and plenty of amateurs do issue forecasts from time to time, and those are fair game to critique as well. But I think people should be clear about what they are critiquing. Model analysis is not the same as an actual forecast. 

And I also don't think it is an indictment on anyone's skill if they post more or less depending on what type of sensible wx the models are showing. I'm sure most mets on here have a lower post rate when we have a vortex over AK and a zonal mild flow in mid-winter. I know I do. I could keep posting about whether the zonal flow might change enough to give us high temps of 54F instead of 47F, but that is about as interesting to me as watching paint dry, so I normally refrain. There are others on here to pick up the slack on that type of discussion if I don't want to do it. 

 

Additionally, I think "pattern talk" is much more likely to occur during periods where there are no imminent threats. We're searching for the next "interesting period". We all know that in rapid-fire stretches of winter storms, we are not constantly posting much about longwave patterns or what some vague D11-15 signal might produce....we're dissecting smaller scale features over a short term storm threat, and maybe tracking another one in the medium range. All of the oxygen gets sucked up during those times with the threats themselves and not pattern talk. 

I am responding to your post because I respect you as a poster. I want to limit commentary of a personal nature. I was very clear what I was critiquing with Brooklyn. It only gets murky when multiple people pile on with comments on other comments, and the original context gets lost.

Brooklyn made a sarcastic response to someone else's post asking rhetorically if he should "not analyze models." I responded based on his well known propensity to post positive-trend animations that it would be helpful if his "analysis" included both positive and negative trends for a "more balanced" assessment. His response was again sarcastic and insulting.

My critique of Brooklyn's style is that his always positive "analysis" regarding long-range charts is not well correlated to sensible weather outcomes. It is not difficult to recognize a favorable "look" on an long-range ensemble chart. ChatGPT does that quite well. There is little value in pointing out these features on 240hr charts. I think he should still be in LEARNING mode more than TEACHING mode. And eventually I think he could offer a lot more than one-sided cheerleading. I am entitled to this opinion, and people can agree or disagree with me if they like. Considering the prolific nature of his posts, Brooklyn should be able to handle legitimate critique. Maybe I'm misjudging him. If he proves me wrong and demonstrates a deeper repertoire, I will happily acknowledge it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Because I think he got defensive, and it really was all uncalled for. I can understand being really hurt and pissed off and him just trying to defend himself. That’s why I said don’t engage. That must be the parent in me when my 8 1/2 year-old diva daughter tries to piss me off lol. Sometimes you’re better off not engaging and let them look like fools.

Yea, I believe him....like I said, I didn't see it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I am responding to your post because I respect you as a poster. I want to limit commentary of a personal nature. I was very clear what I was critiquing with Brooklyn. It only gets murky when multiple people pile on with comments on other comments, and the original context gets lost.

Brooklyn made a sarcastic response to someone else's post asking rhetorically if he should "not analyze models." I responded based on his well known propensity to post positive-trend animations that it would be helpful if his "analysis" included both positive and negative trends for a "more balanced" assessment. His response was again sarcastic and insulting.

My critique of Brooklyn's style is that his always positive "analysis" regarding long-range charts is not well correlated to sensible weather outcomes. It is not difficult to recognize a favorable "look" on an long-range ensemble chart. ChatGPT does that quite well. There is little value in pointing out these features on 240hr charts. I think he should still be in LEARNING mode more than TEACHING mode. And eventually I think he could offer a lot more than one-sided cheerleading. I am entitled to this opinion, and people can agree or disagree with me if they like. Considering the prolific nature of his posts, Brooklyn should be able to handle legitimate critique. Maybe I'm misjudging him. If he proves me wrong and demonstrates a deeper repertoire, I will happily acknowledge it.

I have seen him do that, but I think he is guilty of what a lot of us are...when a situation sucks, or goes to shit...we tend to disappear like that Homer Simpson GIF into the bushes lol We have all done it.

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have seen him do that, but I think he is guilty of what a lot of us are...when a situation sucks, or goes to shit...we tend to disappear like that Homer Simpson GIF into the bushes lol We have all done it.

I get that for sure. Fully agree. But if you only post positive trends it becomes a boy who cried wolf situation. And your analysis becomes unreliable. That's a meaningful critique.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I think it’s a completely reasonable position to say that we need something out of the 16th or 18th.

if we whiff on both those chances, you are really starting to rely on some truly slim possibilities to a path to normal snow 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think it’s a completely reasonable position to say that we need something out of the 16th or 18th.

if we whiff on both those chances, you are really starting to rely on some truly slim possibilities to a path to normal snow 

If one is a CT to Scooter special and the other one pounds MHT points north, I am absolutely going to be sectioned.

[brooklynwx99]

13 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I am responding to your post because I respect you as a poster. I want to limit commentary of a personal nature. I was very clear what I was critiquing with Brooklyn. It only gets murky when multiple people pile on with comments on other comments, and the original context gets lost.

Brooklyn made a sarcastic response to someone else's post asking rhetorically if he should "not analyze models." I responded based on his well known propensity to post positive-trend animations that it would be helpful if his "analysis" included both positive and negative trends for a "more balanced" assessment. His response was again sarcastic and insulting.

My critique of Brooklyn's style is that his always positive "analysis" regarding long-range charts is not well correlated to sensible weather outcomes. It is not difficult to recognize a favorable "look" on an long-range ensemble chart. ChatGPT does that quite well. There is little value in pointing out these features on 240hr charts. I think he should still be in LEARNING mode more than TEACHING mode. And eventually I think he could offer a lot more than one-sided cheerleading. I am entitled to this opinion, and people can agree or disagree with me if they like. Considering the prolific nature of his posts, Brooklyn should be able to handle legitimate critique. Maybe I'm misjudging him. If he proves me wrong and demonstrates a deeper repertoire, I will happily acknowledge it.

this is literally full of condescension and yet, you are going to say that i was being insulting after you said that my degree was undeserved and unearned. I am going to stop responding to you, as I do not want to clutter this thread, but you should look at what you're doing here. it's really not cool

[eduggs]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

this is literally full of condescension and you are going to say that i was being insulting after you said that my degree was undeserved and unearned. I am going to stop responding to you, as I do not want to clutter this thread, but you should look at what you're doing here. it's really not cool

I said your red tag confers a cloak of expertise that is not deserved. I.E., Bachelor's degree ≠ knowledge & competence. I stand by that. People should be judged based on the quality of their contributions, not a presumption of expertise. 

[Typhoon Tip]

53 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GFS is explosive but I think it'll be tough to pull off... I think the 18th holds better potential with the 16th trying to act as some confluence

Those wave spaces are competing with one another.   

Remove either, boom. 

Not sure one or the other won't become dominant over the days to come - which one?  no idea.  But should that not happen, it won't be impossible the we either miss both, or end up with an event that's hardly worth a thread.    

By the way bro, ignore it      

[tavwtby]

Meanwhile in weather, it's raining out washing the crap off everything...

[Ginx snewx]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gonna look at everything this weekend and probably write something up.....maybe also urinate a snowflake onto a napkin for Steve to understand.

I can school you just let you blow your own horn every thread you possibly can.

[Typhoon Tip]

yeah...now the GFS is throwing the 22nd at us  ... 

get the f out here with that.   i think we've covered just about every date between the 14th and 25th at this point...

none of this shit can be trusted - not even standard amount for this range, either.  Particularly bad with continuity.   

[mreaves]

52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Worry the 18th is congrats NNE. 

As god intended. 

[jbenedet]

At least the GFS lost its “congrats OBX” BS for the 16th.
 

It’s now rightly back in line with all other major guidance. So how this will evolve is a lot clearer than earlier today…

 

[kdxken]

 

[SJonesWX]

Jesus, the beer is overflowing in this forum the last couple of hours. must be happy hour. mmm beer.