January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Typhoon Tip]

It all evades the real pertinent question for me... 

why do posters reference those out side this medium like that.  Doing so usually couched in a some opinionated bio over how awesome they are

Maybe just because of what Brian said?  When reality provides a lower dopa potency, people hump delusions of grandeur for their high   haha

[Torch Tiger]

like vibe coding, wonder when it'll be vibe forecasting/modeling. Just feed the ai voice prompt whatever positive b.s. and it'll pump out a blizzard 

[ORH_wxman]

Some hits showing up on the 12z Euro today. The KU-or-bust folks will still be searching though. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

more NE wx alert hype slop please, the vibes are fading fast

He is never going to be able to reconcile his version of reality with the fact that he was wrong. I'll tell you exactly what he'll do...he's going to say something to the effect of "see, the storm formed, but it tracked a bit too far east".

[CoastalWx]

Ahh see the euro is another solution that might work and kind of deliver something high-end advisory, low and warning. It actually meanders the cut off down south so that the confluence weekends north of New England after day seven and allows a weak low to come up the coast and bring some snow. Then the trough sharpens in the plains and perhaps tries to deliver something after that timeframe.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some hits showing up on the 12z Euro today. The KU-or-bust folks will still be searching though. 

The high-end advisory consolation that Scott referenced. I think that's the realistic ceiling here.

[mob1]

Fun look on the Euro in fantasy range. Has a good PNA spike before it collapses a bit due to another shortwave crashing into the PNW (part of the same PAC flow issues we've been dealing with for a few years) but there's all kinds of potential here (verbatim it all comes together well to our NE). 

[FXWX]

Roll cloud action in Burlington CT!

PXL_20260108_181252868.RAW-02.ORIGINAL.dng

[CoastalWx]

OK, this 12z euro run is exactly what you hope to see if you want something conducive. Look at that ridge over the West Coast right into Alaska. You don’t have that stupid nagging trough over Alaska That’s kicking down the ridge and just shitting on us all the time. That pokes right up into Santa‘s fanny. That’s what you want. Whether it happens or not, who knows.

[CoastalWx]

Never mind the outcome, verbatim… That’s what I’m kind of looking for for something other than a glancing blow… Something that will give us at least a couple of chances.

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ahh see the euro is another solution that might work and kind of deliver something high-end advisory, low and warning. It actually meanders the cut off down south so that the confluence weekends north of New England after day seven and allows a weak low to come up the coast and bring some snow. Then the trough sharpens in the plains and perhaps tries to deliver something after that timeframe.

yeah, this is the change you want to see. the NS needs to provide confluence, not try to phase in

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The high-end advisory consolation that Scott referenced. I think that's the realistic ceiling here.

It certainly has potential of more than that in the next 10+ days or so… But I’m looking at it from a point of view where we can get at least two chances within a small window perhaps more chances over say a 20 day period where we have an opportunity to make a run for a bit. I’m not looking at this from a KU perspective at all. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, this is the change you want to see. the NS needs to provide confluence, not try to phase in

The illustration also shows you what I was saying about that kicker. Look how that Ridge axis goes from  Northern California right into the Canadian prairies. You definitely don’t want to see that, you want to see that more oriented north to south.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It certainly has potential of more than that in the next 10+ days or so… But I’m looking at it from a point of view where we can get at least two chances within a small window perhaps more chances over say a 20 day period where we have an opportunity to make a run for a bit. I’m not looking at this from a KU perspective at all. 

Realistically, good luck. I'm focused beyond that for anything major (sub KU).

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The illustration also shows you what I was saying about that kicker. Look how that Ridge axis goes from  Northern California right into the Canadian prairies. You definitely don’t want to see that, you want to see that more oriented north to south.

It's the same roll over we saw last year, and previous years. It blows. And I bet @Typhoon Tiphas theory on why we are seeing it....

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's the same roll over we saw last year, and previous years. It blows. And I bet @Typhoon Tiphas theory on why we are seeing it....

Was just going to mention that...how the pattern is structured is about as important than anything and I think stuff like this goes overlooked. People see ridge in the west and trough in the east and assume that is good but that is not necessarily the case. 

[weatherwiz]

How Low can you go

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, this is the change you want to see. the NS needs to provide confluence, not try to phase in

 

 

So when it ultimately phases in and ruins our chance at a good event....we can blame the "new regime", even though the "new regime" is hostile to phasing. I can already see the posts now. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

How Low can you go

Buck shot probably related to short wave timing issues, but that doesn’t make me want to vomit for sure.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Buck shot probably related to short wave timing issues, but that doesn’t make me want to vomit for sure.

I just kind of want the weekend to get here. This period is very low probability, but just enough of a probability to keep us a bit into it. We'll either put this to rest this weekend or see a theme where we are inching towards something. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Most are focused on snow understandably, but the pattern is pretty good for a potential legit arctic cold blast....so if we're looking for sub-zero temps, this is the type of pattern you want. Ensembles are focusing near MLK weekend and maybe just after.....note the absolutely zonked WPO ridge and a bit of -AO retrograding from Scandi/Ural ridging....thats going to shove pure Siberian arctic into central and SE Canada. 

 

 

[eduggs]

15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, this is the change you want to see. the NS needs to provide confluence, not try to phase in

We do want phasing between what's left of the southern stream (ULL) and the northern stream (shortwaves embedded in the longwave trof) in the South. That initiates SLP formation along the Gulf and keeps the trof from progressively collapsing. This is more important for the mid-Atlantic, but also important for a bigger east coast event overall.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

How can anything in mid January, with most people below normal for snow, be considered pure gravy? IMO, we are wasting peak climo snow season for many currently. 
 

if we have any shot at anything resembling a normal season, we need changes soon, and not just back to cold temps and 1/2” clippers 

January here is usually snowy - 22% of season total - but doesn't have all that many big events. After 27 winters:
        10"+(47)  15"+(18)
NOV       1           0
DEC      10          4
JAN       6           1
FEB       11           5
MAR     15           6
APR       4           2

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Like I said last night though…the midnight high can net you 2 days of 50° if the fropa timing is right. Let’s butcher those negative anomalies with some bush league tactics.

In Jan 94 had a midnight high of 49 and still finished BN with  midnight low of 2 lol

[Typhoon Tip]

45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some hits showing up on the 12z Euro today. The KU-or-bust folks will still be searching though. 

yup,   Euro ridge more eclipsing the WC and we see some improvements aloft ( 500 mb evolution) downstream. 

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t have the energy to do a nice illustration of this, but go on the website like tropical tidbits, pick the North America sector, and look at the 500 MB height anomalies on the GEFS. You’ll see a trough over the Bering Sea, a ridge sort of positively tilted from California up to the Western Canadian prairies, and a trough over the Midwest that looks like it should do something here.

Now go to hr 174. Notice that Bering sea trough sends a s/w into the nrn plains of the US while the east coast trough almost tries to sharpen to make things interesting. 
However, that nrn plains s/w acts as a kicker and does not allow it to sharpen to bring a low up the coast. 

But here is the fun part, that s/w digs enough the of course the ridge retros into AK just enough to sharpen that and bring a more messier system into the northeast. That’s been our luck. Go forward through day 8 and you’ll see.

Now the reason why I’m saying it’s a non-0 chance is because it wouldn’t take much to bring that storm up the coast and at least graze us with a high-end advisory snow… But it just goes back to what I’ve been saying there’s just too much crap interfering in this flow.q

 

First problem is relying on the GEFS GFS products for anything past day4

[moneypitmike]

What a beautiful day it’s been today being outside and raking up leaves at the new pit.  Lawn cleanup in January. Can’t beat it.  

[weatherwiz]

@40/70 Benchmark getting back to the end of last weeks discussion regarding that fast flow stuff...I retract what I had stated and I will also add that anything blaming fast flow is also voodoo...to a degree

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most are focused on snow understandably, but the pattern is pretty good for a potential legit arctic cold blast....so if we're looking for sub-zero temps, this is the type of pattern you want. Ensembles are focusing near MLK weekend and maybe just after.....note the absolutely zonked WPO ridge and a bit of -AO retrograding from Scandi/Ural ridging....thats going to shove pure Siberian arctic into central and SE Canada. 

 

 

Great, pond hockey on my driveway after the next cutter.

[tamarack]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

In Jan 94 had a midnight high of 49 and still finished BN with  midnight low of 2 lol

Jan 94   Gardiner, Maine
26     3   -16     T      T     25
27    11    -21    T      T      25
28   45     -1   1.61   2.5   24
29   41     18    .01            21
30   18      0                     21
31    15   -10                     21