January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, TheMainer said:

Heading to Quebec for 3 days this weekend which usually guarantees snow at the house, got probably 200 miles on, but 140 being trail maintenance either on a skandic or my tundra, but did have a nice 60 mile ride with the wife Sunday from the house. 

If we pick up 4-5 inches through Sunday we'll be starting to roll here, looks like minor QPF Friday into Saturday with the warmup. 

Nice that you've been able to get out some, Yeah, Not much qpf when we warm sector before FROPA so should minimize any damage there, That SLP after that forms at the base of the trough and moves along the coast if that happens should end uo a net gain up here, I'm heading up to the Northern Maine mountains Thursday morning next week to get the first ride of the season in.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Next week is normal . Maybe one day of 40’s
You and a few others had days of 50’s and furnace lol . Busted 

It’s pretty mild dude. Accept the mud, it’s the only mud you got. 

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Looks quite good bro. Why is that light bar on your Lynx crooked(maybe just the picture?) Nice machines. 

Looks like its the angle of the trail hes on.

[512high]

Shop Davis @ 39/ start burning this shit of the lots/walkways!

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s pretty mild dude. Accept the mud, it’s the only mud you got. 

It's kind of hilarious to be defaulting to a thaw when looking at a +PNA crawling up into a -EPO look.  

It's times like these I wonder ... when/if the pattern actually flips warm, what the f will that entail.

 

[dryslot]

Its been quite a while but Sebago lake is completely iced over i was informed this morning.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s pretty mild dude. Accept the mud, it’s the only mud you got. 

You’re a broken dude. I feel for ya. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its been quite a while but Sebago lake is completely iced over i was informed this morning.

It’s been dam cold..nice to hear. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

You’re a broken dude. I feel for ya. 

It’s blood red on all guidance. Be mad at the pattern not me. Like I said over a week ago. Garbage pattern. 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s pretty mild dude. Accept the mud, it’s the only mud you got. 

All of next week mild?? With Monday below freezing and cold shot end of week with possible snow  ? It’s not BN but I don’t see any evidence of a furnace . ORH north saves their pack and now they also get icestorm this weekend 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

All of next week mild?? With Monday below freezing and cold shot the of week ? It’s not BN but I don’t see any evidence of a furnace . ORH north saves their pack and now they also get icestorm this weekend 

It’s mild aside for a day. A lot of very mild nights and mild days. Maybe Thursday is a tad AN and finally cooling off later Friday and the following weekend. I don’t know why this is hard to accept. Nobody said a week of 60.

[dryslot]

muthafukkers!

KLEW   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   1/08/2026  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 THU  08| FRI 09| SAT 10| SUN 11| MON 12| TUE 13| WED 14| THU 15 CLIMO
 X/N  42| 16  39| 28  44| 29  37| 21  36| 17  38| 22  38| 21  31 10 29
 TMP  30| 19  37| 29  34| 30  31| 23  28| 20  31| 24  33| 22  24      
 DPT  21| 19  35| 23  22| 26  28| 19  18| 15  23| 21  28| 16  13      
 CLD  PC| PC  OV| OV  PC| OV  OV| OV  PC| PC  PC| OV  OV| OV  OV      
 WND   6|  3   7| 12   5| 10   8|  9  14|  7   7|  5   9| 10  10      
 P12   3|  0  45| 46  38| 85  63| 59  10| 15  20| 29  34| 31  33999999
 P24    |     45|     58|    100|     67|     24|     43|     47   999
 Q12   0|  0   1|  1   1|  3   1|  1   0|  0   0|  0    |             
 Q24    |      1|      1|      4|      2|      0|       |             
 T12   0|  0   0|  0   0|  1   0|  1   0|  1   0|  0   0|  0   0      
 T24    |  0    |  3    |  1    |  2    |  2    |  1    |  1          
 PZP  10| 21  15|  0   5| 42  33|  9   7|  9  11| 15  10|  9   9      
 PSN  60| 26   6|  5  32| 23  25| 65  87| 82  53| 50  35| 38  65      
 PRS  29|  0   0|  7   4| 24  26| 18   6|  6  21| 14  23| 21  12      
 TYP   S|  S   R|  R   R|  Z   Z|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S      
 SNW    |      0|      0|      6|      1|      0|       |             

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

muthafukkers!

KLEW   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   1/08/2026  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 THU  08| FRI 09| SAT 10| SUN 11| MON 12| TUE 13| WED 14| THU 15 CLIMO
 X/N  42| 16  39| 28  44| 29  37| 21  36| 17  38| 22  38| 21  31 10 29
 TMP  30| 19  37| 29  34| 30  31| 23  28| 20  31| 24  33| 22  24      
 DPT  21| 19  35| 23  22| 26  28| 19  18| 15  23| 21  28| 16  13      
 CLD  PC| PC  OV| OV  PC| OV  OV| OV  PC| PC  PC| OV  OV| OV  OV      
 WND   6|  3   7| 12   5| 10   8|  9  14|  7   7|  5   9| 10  10      
 P12   3|  0  45| 46  38| 85  63| 59  10| 15  20| 29  34| 31  33999999
 P24    |     45|     58|    100|     67|     24|     43|     47   999
 Q12   0|  0   1|  1   1|  3   1|  1   0|  0   0|  0    |             
 Q24    |      1|      1|      4|      2|      0|       |             
 T12   0|  0   0|  0   0|  1   0|  1   0|  1   0|  0   0|  0   0      
 T24    |  0    |  3    |  1    |  2    |  2    |  1    |  1          
 PZP  10| 21  15|  0   5| 42  33|  9   7|  9  11| 15  10|  9   9      
 PSN  60| 26   6|  5  32| 23  25| 65  87| 82  53| 50  35| 38  65      
 PRS  29|  0   0|  7   4| 24  26| 18   6|  6  21| 14  23| 21  12      
 TYP   S|  S   R|  R   R|  Z   Z|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S      
 SNW    |      0|      0|      6|      1|      0|       |             

Enjoy up there. Looks decent in your hood to Winni.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s blood red on all guidance. Be mad at the pattern not me. Like I said over a week ago. Garbage pattern. 

I’m not mad at all lol. I’ve had a decent go so far. I’m not upset at the thaw. Chances coming afterwards.  I don’t expect wall to wall. Never have. 
 

You’re just inconsolable bro. Nothing anybody can do about your situation. Sad. 

[SouthCoastMA]

1/7-1/14 hasn't looked good since the New Year when models lost the blocking. Let's get past this stretch and see if better threats start emerging after 1/15. Not holding my breath, but what's happening now is not suprising. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m not mad at all lol. I’ve had a decent go so far. I’m not upset at the thaw. Chances coming afterwards.  I don’t expect wall to wall. Never have. 
 

You’re just inconsolable bro. Nothing anybody can do about your situation. Sad. 

Just keeping it real

[Kitz Craver]

No need for the wrist wringing over a few degrees? It’s going AN, time to accept.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Just keeping it real

It’s a little more than that bro…but whatever.  
Long way to go bro being it’s 1/8…and that’s keeping it real too.  

[SouthCoastMA]

Patchy snow in the yard now..ready for a salt cleanse and reset. Looking forward to the parakeets for a couple days/nights

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

No need for the wrist wringing over a few degrees? It’s going AN, time to accept.

It’s all good..I’m actually looking forward to it..feels nice for a change. 

[dryslot]

Its a few torchy days up here above but looks like after Tuesday next week we start going the other way a bit back to normal.

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s a little more than that bro…but whatever.  
Long way to go bro being it’s 1/8…and that’s keeping it real too.  

Thaws are normal as you know so on one hand I'd rather have this now than peak climo in a few weeks. But that also means we have to produce during that time. I'm still cautiously optimistic, but keeping up with climo once you're behind (which a lot of people are) is an uphill battle. Especially this decade. 

I do like seeing continued activity on the models. Tbh, I've been more checked out here in CT lol. 

[TheMainer]

43 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Looks quite good bro. Why is that light bar on your Lynx crooked(maybe just the picture?) Nice machines. 

One of my rox mounts actually did break and I had to zip tie to get home with it, had almost 6,000 miles of abuse and then a smooth ride with the wife at 50-60 mph with no bumps and it breaks 

37 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Nice that you've been able to get out some, Yeah, Not much qpf when we warm sector before FROPA so should minimize any damage there, That SLP after that forms at the base of the trough and moves along the coast if that happens should end uo a net gain up here, I'm heading up to the Northern Maine mountains Thursday morning next week to get the first ride of the season in.

I do appreciate the Maine insight you have, definitely a different world up here than other areas. Hope you guys do alright down there too, trends look promising. You should have good riding I imagine with the snow the past few days and what's coming this weekend. We need a good season after these past 5 disappointments.

[Cyclone-68]

Not much on the ground here and it looks like it’ll completely disappear by tomorrow. 

[Snowcrazed71]

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just keeping it real

I'm sorry you're feeling pretty defeated. But I have to disagree with you. Keeping it real is one thing, but you've teetered over to the point of self-loathing. I'm not trying to read you at all, but once you get to this point, everything is a negative. Is the pattern amazing, no, but is there there some real good guidance to the pattern becoming much better, yes. So your garbage pattern theory might be good for the next week but after that not so much.

My biggest hope is we do get a really good storm that will brighten everyone up including you and give everybody what they're looking for. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Need to get past 1/15 for cold to return....we can sneak in marginal snow before that, but my best guess is the 1/15-1/20 period is one that needs to work out in order to turn the month into a potential AN snowfall month. Don't want to count on the final 10 days to drop double digits. 

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Should be midnight high in the 50s later tomorrow night for many in SNE. Too bad it wasn’t day time because near 60 could have been attainable. AWT. 

Like I said last night though…the midnight high can net you 2 days of 50° if the fropa timing is right. Let’s butcher those negative anomalies with some bush league tactics.

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Need to get past 1/15 for cold to return....we can sneak in marginal snow before that, but my best guess is the 1/15-1/20 period is one that needs to work out in order to turn the month into a potential AN snowfall month. Don't want to count on the final 10 days to drop double digits. 

The best potential for a larger storm is probably that mid-month period. Beyond mid-month, however, the pattern may become much more active...maybe with SWFE's given we may be battling the SE ridge...which may not be a bad thing given we'll be into peak climo. Not totally sold on the SE ridge becoming as stout as advertised though which would work into our favor. We may not get into deep cold, but we'll have deep cold available nearby so if we can tug a storm track a bit south/east we can easily pull into it

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Next week is normal . Maybe one day of 40’s
You and a few others had days of 50’s and furnace lol . Busted 

Warm night time mins can drive up anomalies, which I'm sure you know, is largely how CC manifests.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The best potential for a larger storm is probably that mid-month period. Beyond mid-month, however, the pattern may become much more active...maybe with SWFE's given we may be battling the SE ridge...which may not be a bad thing given we'll be into peak climo. Not totally sold on the SE ridge becoming as stout as advertised though which would work into our favor. We may not get into deep cold, but we'll have deep cold available nearby so if we can tug a storm track a bit south/east we can easily pull into it

Most guidance seems to have two shortwaves coming down near mid-month that we can sort of follow now....but that can obviously change at this lead time. The second one looks better to me....which would prob be in the 1/15-1/17 time range (timing varies by model guidance and cycle)....the first one looks like it's struggling with wave spacing and also antecedent airmass is poorer. So if we happen to grab anything out of the 1/13-1/14 period, it's pure gravy IMHO.