January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Typhoon Tip]

Heh... W. Europe actually positively correlates to eastern N/A in classic climatology.  That may be changing based on everything over the last 20 years ..But the Alaska thing is true.  

The reason for these is just typical wave number spacing.  When there is a trough in Alaska, there tends to be a ridge down stream.  And vice versa...  

That all said, there's not really a silver bullet - I realize the idea of when in Rome is just to make conversation point.   Still, we can't just signal some aspect and assume that's what's going on in a vacuum.  Case in point, with a month's worth of oscillation between -WPO and -EPO...that implies sharing time/space in a ridge state over Alaska, yet they're snowy - so something else is playing around with it.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would need to look at the phases with respect to seasonal intervals, but that may also have to do with why we couldn't buy a storm...usually stormy patterns for AK aren't so great here. The fact that it was early in the season may have allowed for colder conditions out here relative if it had occurred mid/late winter, too....wave lengths and MJO correlations change at different junctures of the season. Again, just a thought...won't look in depth at this until May for the postseason write up.

It's a thought I've had too. I have to do some stuff for Anchorage so I'm always paying attention and after like the first week of December they've been largely below average and temperatures and its been active at times into western Alaska. I've said to myself several times man...this look for Alaska doesn't totally bode well for us. Just wish I've been able to really divulge deeper into everything, particularly the state of the PAC.

[CoastalWx]

I’ll say this, if we can salvage something on the 15th, it would go a long way in changing the tenor of this season. Still looks like a low chance, but not impossible. 

[weatherwiz]

2z NAM looks like it may be icier for up north Saturday...also seems like the timing has slowed down a bit too.

[WinterWolf]

I’m in the minority of course, but I am not unhappy so far.  I know I got the 8-9” out this way that others did not, so that goes a long way, along with the constant cold, and 1-2” refreshers. So, it’s been a very wintry period here, with good snowcover.  The cover will go after these next few days.  But speaking for myself, not unhappy at all so far. 
 

If you largely missed out on 12/26, then I certainly understand the complaints, and I’d be there too.  But I’m not in that boat at the moment.  And if we pick up something significant in the next week or two…then this area will be in very good shape. If not, then we fall behind.  

[dryslot]

3 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

GYX going colder for Saturday night.

Yeah, Don't sleep on Sat night Sunday up here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's a thought I've had too. I have to do some stuff for Anchorage so I'm always paying attention and after like the first week of December they've been largely below average and temperatures and its been active at times into western Alaska. I've said to myself several times man...this look for Alaska doesn't totally bode well for us. Just wish I've been able to really divulge deeper into everything, particularly the state of the PAC.

I honestly thought we would have done better for snowfall in December...man it was colder and LESS snowy than I thought.

Figures-

[dryslot]

3 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

31f. Off to the races. Going to feel like a heat wave today

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk
 

Didn't even take the tractor out the last couple days, Going let mother nature work her magic.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, Don't sleep on Sat night Sunday up here.

If the county does decently sat/sun, that may solidify plans to head up later next week. 

[ineedsnow]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, Don't sleep on Sat night Sunday up here.

nope..  pope said yesterday it wont happen when I mentioned it.. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I honestly thought we would have done better for snowfall in December...man it was colder and LESS snowy than I thought.

Figures-

I still think your December call was pretty damn good. I know your upset about the snowfall aspect, but if you look at the region as a whole, it wasn't *terrible*. This December is a big reason why I am not a fan of doing snowfall total predictions because there are too many wildcards that aren't necessarily related to the pattern but more dependent on small scale processes during system evolution. 

When you look at the systems which gave us the snows in Decembers...those aren't systems which are conducive to widespread, uniform accumulations, it was more contingent on how each system evolved. While different scales, it's like dealing with convection during the summer. We can have an active pattern for showers and thunderstorms but at the end of the day some areas may come out of it with hardly anything while some areas got slammed. 

[wx2fish]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

2z NAM looks like it may be icier for up north Saturday...also seems like the timing has slowed down a bit too.

Chilly run. Potential there down in N ORH Co too

[tunafish]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

 

We have not had one fun storm to track…

 

Just hella cold.

Need I mentions the other “benefits” of this crap Pattern—

 

Heating bills up

ice melt use up

slips trips falls up

doggy depression up

boredom up

Friendly counterpoints:

Heating bills up

-solar & electric FTW

 

ice melt use up

-Wear yaktrax or tell your DPW to make sand and salt mix available like civilized towns

 

slips trips falls up

-See above

 

doggy depression up

-Tell him to suck it up and give him an edible

 

boredom up

-Pond hockey every weeknight and ice fishing every weekend.

 

Adapt or die (from this trash pattern), I always say.

 

31°F

[mreaves]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Didn't even take the tractor out the last couple days, Going let mother nature work her magic.

I cleaned up the driveway Monday night but left what fell afterwards.  I didn't even get the snowblower out, just used the snow scoop.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, wx2fish said:

Chilly run. Potential there down in N ORH Co too

Yeah and its definitely gaining more weight. Still a bit off from anything to really worry about in terms of say power outages but untreated surfaces will become icy for sure

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I still think your December call was pretty damn good. I know your upset about the snowfall aspect, but if you look at the region as a whole, it wasn't *terrible*. This December is a big reason why I am not a fan of doing snowfall total predictions because there are too many wildcards that aren't necessarily related to the pattern but more dependent on small scale processes during system evolution. 

When you look at the systems which gave us the snows in Decembers...those aren't systems which are conducive to widespread, uniform accumulations, it was more contingent on how each system evolved. While different scales, it's like dealing with convection during the summer. We can have an active pattern for showers and thunderstorms but at the end of the day some areas may come out of it with hardly anything while some areas got slammed. 

Oh, I know that....but snowfall if the main reason I do this, so I'm more interest in that, than whether it only drops to 29 at night instead of 27 on average.

[ariof]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Certainly no lack of winter there. Anchorage has been in the ice bowl this week...some pretty decent cold for them given their proximity to the water. 

Fairbanks usually has cold snaps that last for about a month and then a warmer regime enters (warmer = above zero for highs). They've been below 0 all but one day since Dec 5, and below -10 most of that time (with several days with highs below -40 and lows to -50, but that's in the cold sink there). -19 anomaly for Dec. When it has warmed up it's snowed; 24" in Dec (avg 10"), just deep, deep winter there, at least another week to come.

Anchorage was only 6° BN in Dec and dry, only 5" vs 18" normal. But they just pulled down 19" this week and are running-17 this month, with more to come snow- and cold-wise.

And then Juneau: -12° anomaly in December with 82" of snow vs 18" normal. Normal amount of liquid (6.5") just it usually falls as liquid mostly. Second-snowiest month on record. And they're about to get a lot of rain on top of it. Eaglecrest might be above the snow line, should have great skiing. $57 per day if you buy a 10-ride pass.

[Typhoon Tip]

clearly colder solution comparing the prior 4 cycles ... 66 to 72 hours is going over to snow in the pretty cinema ... almost down to the pike.

there's been steadily more commitment to a secondary, albeit weak. 

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, NoCORH4L said:

We're in a weather forum, not an astrological forum, so wouldn't we talk meteorological seasons?

Lol.  We talk real seasons.  
 

But all kidding aside, It’s a personal thing..And it’s all good. I always go/went by the real season. It snows and can be cold in March some years..the snow is counted on the season. I do a lot of sledding in March, So it just Works better in my mind.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

clearly colder solution comparing the prior 4 cycles ... 66 to 72 hours is going over to snow in the pretty cinema ... almost down to the pike.

there's been steadily more commitment to a secondary, albeit weak. 

Yay, Windham and Salem, NH will get snow and ice, while it transitions to rain 200 feet north of my door steps.

[Damage In Tolland]

No 50’s no 60’s. All busts on the torch in New England. Hilarious 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, ariof said:

Fairbanks usually has cold snaps that last for about a month and then a warmer regime enters (warmer = above zero for highs). They've been below 0 all but one day since Dec 5, and below -10 most of that time (with several days with highs below -40 and lows to -50, but that's in the cold sink there). -19 anomaly for Dec. When it has warmed up it's snowed; 24" in Dec (avg 10"), just deep, deep winter there, at least another week to come.

Anchorage was only 6° BN in Dec and dry, only 5" vs 18" normal. But they just pulled down 19" this week and are running-17 this month, with more to come snow- and cold-wise.

And then Juneau: -12° anomaly in December with 82" of snow vs 18" normal. Normal amount of liquid (6.5") just it usually falls as liquid mostly. Second-snowiest month on record. And they're about to get a lot of rain on top of it. Eaglecrest might be above the snow line, should have great skiing. $57 per day if you buy a 10-ride pass.

I'll say...I have zero clue how anyone forecasts in Anchorage or Alaska in general  

Anchorage is an insane market and often times can get screwed in the snowfall department because they get downsloped but they can also get wind winds because the winds can funnel. The airport can get like 3" of snow and a few miles away they're pulling off 20". But there are times anchorage can get absolutely dumped on too.  

[dryslot]

12z Nam looks to get a weak secondary going off the SE coast of LI which helps back the winds out of the NNE bringing some colder air down to the coast to keep things mainly frozen up here, The other models are starting to trend in that same direction as well.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No 50’s no 60’s. All busts on the torch in New England. Hilarious 

Congrats on 55 tomorrow evening. And probably again next week.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Other than a rest stop off I 84 in Southbury CT this is up there with top stinkers when you think about how cold it’s been.

Fight!

[CoastalWx]

It’s a shame we get a high building in and can’t get more than a flip to snow at the end because that is a good SWfE track, airmass just sucks of course. Maybe all snow LCI to LEW?

[Lava Rock]

up to 41f already. 

[TheMainer]

18 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Didn't even take the tractor out the last couple days, Going let mother nature work her magic.

Heading to Quebec for 3 days this weekend which usually guarantees snow at the house, got probably 200 miles on, but 140 being trail maintenance either on a skandic or my tundra, but did have a nice 60 mile ride with the wife Sunday from the house. 

If we pick up 4-5 inches through Sunday we'll be starting to roll here, looks like minor QPF Friday into Saturday with the warmup. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, TheMainer said:

Heading to Quebec for 3 days this weekend which usually guarantees snow at the house, got probably 200 miles on, but 140 being trail maintenance either on a skandic or my tundra, but did have a nice 60 mile ride with the wife Sunday from the house. 

If we pick up 4-5 inches through Sunday we'll be starting to roll here, looks like minor QPF Friday into Saturday with the warmup. 

Looks quite good bro. Why is that light bar on your Lynx crooked(maybe just the picture?) Nice machines. 

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Congrats on 55 tomorrow evening. And probably again next week.

Next week is normal . Maybe one day of 40’s
You and a few others had days of 50’s and furnace lol . Busted