January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah...it's not hugely obvious I guess.  But, I also don't remember the daily charts looking that ideal, either.  I recall distinctly that it was S of that some of the time. 

Also, I'm kinda more interested in the "stuck resonance" behavior too.     It was really something.  Other notable was how the MJO was squashed out of existence that whole time too because the two negatively interfered and the N. Pac was daddy.    Tentative proof of that ... the resonance decays and summarily the RMM has/is released/ing the beast. 

To your point, one really needs to play out the evolution in shortened intervals to see some of these idiosyncrasies of the period in question because it gets smoothed out in the mean. This is probably why it was biased more east during some of these oscillations.

[Typhoon Tip]

HAHA ... man, the ICON is setting up just a delicious bi-polar American WX Forum experience for the 15th, huh

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

To your point, one really needs to play out the evolution in shortened intervals to see some of these idiosyncrasies of the period in question because it gets smoothed out in the mean. This is probably why it was biased more east during some of these oscillations.

This. 

I think when it comes to creating composites, focusing on weekly or biweekly intervals versus just a monthly averaged plot would end up yielding a more accurate assessment and I think it would really help to add clarity when you're dealing with transient patterns and the transition periods. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

HAHA ... man, the ICON is setting up just a delicious bi-polar American WX Forum experience for the 15th, huh

Likely LBSW

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This. 

I think when it comes to creating composites, focusing on weekly or biweekly intervals versus just a monthly averaged plot would end up yielding a more accurate assessment and I think it would really help to add clarity when you're dealing with transient patterns and the transition periods. 

I think @bluewavedoes that. I usually do that more in the narrative explanation, but I did add some graphics for January to break down the mid month pattern evolution...ie PT regime to +TNH transition.

[SouthCoastMA]

CMC looks like it's setting up something beyond day 7

GFS cooked up something but too late into the Maritimes, closer to day 9

[Fozz]

A very icy morning here, now it’s snowing and coming down hard.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think @bluewavedoes that. I usually do that more in the narrative explanation, but I did add some graphics for January to break down the mid month pattern evolution...ie PT regime to =TNH transition.

Yeah I have noticed you do that, which is great. Obviously it is a major PITA to really do which sucks. Like I've always said, I wish I was skilled enough to take the daily values provided by the CPC for NAO, AO, PNA and create a rolling bi-weekly index. I'm sure this could easily be done in like Excel but it's not as easy as just taking the daily values, adding, and doing an average. There's way more to it...like if you take the daily values for a particular month and divide by the number of days...the value won't match what the monthly index value is. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah I have noticed you do that, which is great. Obviously it is a major PITA to really do which sucks. Like I've always said, I wish I was skilled enough to take the daily values provided by the CPC for NAO, AO, PNA and create a rolling bi-weekly index. I'm sure this could easily be done in like Excel but it's not as easy as just taking the daily values, adding, and doing an average. There's way more to it...like if you take the daily values for a particular month and divide by the number of days...the value won't match what the monthly index value is. 

It's so time consuming...which prohibitive for someone like me who spends an inordinately excessive amount of time on it as is.

There is someone in the ENSO thread who has a site that computes daily values...forget who...

[ineedsnow]

Sneaky ice storm for some this weekend? 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's so time consuming...which prohibitive for someone like me who spends an inordinately excessive amount of time on it as is.

There is someone in the ENSO thread who has a site that computes daily values...forget who...

It's so time consuming, particularly the way I do it lol.

This is where being able to write code and know Python would be massive...as long as you are able to obtain the source data you would be able to create whatever you wanted and how you wanted and save a ton of time because once you have a script written you can just re-run to get updated data. Maybe MATLAB would be better for something like this though versus Python but Python has become so powerful now 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

It's so time consuming, particularly the way I do it lol.

This is where being able to write code and know Python would be massive...as long as you are able to obtain the source data you would be able to create whatever you wanted and how you wanted and save a ton of time because once you have a script written you can just re-run to get updated data. Maybe MATLAB would be better for something like this though versus Python but Python has become so powerful now 

I think it's @BlizzardWxthat has that site....should find out shortly.

[Ginx snewx]

24 minutes ago, adam038 said:

No. I’m a far less important Adam


.

Lol we are all important 

[mahk_webstah]

40 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

12z GFS is pretty icy this weekend for Dendrite land after some sleet/snow. Like you said, we get a meso low with a pretty good orientation to back winds more northerly across the interior. Limiting factor is the crappy airmass 

I’ve been hearing this for three days, but it doesn’t seem to be translating in any significant way into the forecast yet. The weather underground does seem to look a little icy and snow here for Saturday, but I don’t think the national weather service is there yet

[ineedsnow]

looking at the 12z models and it looks like those warm calls might go up in flames..

[ORH_wxman]

Finally flipping to snow here. Everything is totally glazed...that most of this last batch was pure ZR with temps near 30F. 

[jbenedet]

48 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Sneaky ice storm for some this weekend? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

In his defense, I do see plenty flames going up the east coast...

[Henry's Weather]

44 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's so time consuming, particularly the way I do it lol.

This is where being able to write code and know Python would be massive...as long as you are able to obtain the source data you would be able to create whatever you wanted and how you wanted and save a ton of time because once you have a script written you can just re-run to get updated data. Maybe MATLAB would be better for something like this though versus Python but Python has become so powerful now 

Last semester I tried to train a predictive model on reanalysis 72 hours prior to major east-coast storms to help me create an indicator that would take in 500 mb data from NA and spit out a value indicating how likely a storm was to occur using ERA5 dataset from ECMWF. I bit off more than I could chew and eventually had to use temperature and wind data only. 

[ineedsnow]

16 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

good thing temps have been trending down every run.. atleast as of now you could use your  to measure the ice.. if it trends any colder probably not

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Last semester I tried to train a predictive model on reanalysis 72 hours prior to major east-coast storms to help me create an indicator that would take in 500 mb data from NA and spit out a value indicating how likely a storm was to occur using ERA5 dataset from ECMWF. I bit off more than I could chew and eventually had to use temperature and wind data only. 

Valiant effort-

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

good thing temps have been trending down every run.. atleast as of now you could use your  to measure the ice.. if it trends any colder probably not

The ice threat last night was always modeled.

[Ginx snewx]

13 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Last semester I tried to train a predictive model on reanalysis 72 hours prior to major east-coast storms to help me create an indicator that would take in 500 mb data from NA and spit out a value indicating how likely a storm was to occur using ERA5 dataset from ECMWF. I bit off more than I could chew and eventually had to use temperature and wind data only. 

 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Valiant effort-

I use the rolling forward method . To me exciting times in our immediate future 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The ice threat last  night was always modeled.

He is talking this weekend 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The ice threat last  night was always modeled.

There’s an increasing threat this weekend over interior CNE. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s an increasing threat this weekend over interior CNE. 

Euro 

[weatherwiz]

21 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Last semester I tried to train a predictive model on reanalysis 72 hours prior to major east-coast storms to help me create an indicator that would take in 500 mb data from NA and spit out a value indicating how likely a storm was to occur using ERA5 dataset from ECMWF. I bit off more than I could chew and eventually had to use temperature and wind data only. 

That's awesome! I so wish I had a mind for that stuff haha

[ineedsnow]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The ice threat last night was always modeled.

some said it wouldn't happen

[weatherwiz]

Yeah there is an increasing signal for icing across the interior this weekend. Going to be difficult to lift the sfc warm front north with flow becoming parallel to the front and you can see sfc winds even becoming more ENE across the interior 

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah there is an increasing signal for icing across the interior this weekend. Going to be difficult to lift the sfc warm front north with flow becoming parallel to the front and you can see sfc winds even becoming more ENE across the interior 

yup we ice