Typhoon Tip Posted Tuesday at 11:08 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:08 PM 31 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: There have been several times in the last 5 years with ensembles showing 10-20” of snow as a mean and we end up with only a few inches over that span .. Something can pop up in the medium range after this weekend. Although it seems odds will increase much more after January 18th. Heh... pistol to head I'm more inclined to suggest the 13-16th based upon science of mass field modulation and correction ... The period after that isn't 'bad' per se, but honestly... we slip the +PNA and then see a new pattern signal right on it's heals that is an abrupt blossoming of a bona fide negative EPO ( not that weird N. Pac thing last month) ... I'm just referring to the actual spatial construct of the hemisphere in the deeper ranged ens system, all three agreeing in principle. The problem with that is, we could observe a seesaw in the pattern just the same ... a flip back "warm" ( ish ) in the E. There's a spatial synoptic argument for it. It shows up statistically/climatology on negative EPOs where a fair number of them actually drop heights in the W immediately downstream of the Alaskan sector ridge. A variation that wouldn't likely be sussed out at this range necessarily. I actually think in the winter where we have established cold on this side of the hemisphere, the flow rate will encourage lengthening L/W lengths ...that might offset the tucked west scenario, too. So some help perhaps That all said, I don't see that as encouraging as this rather powerful looking +PNA burst that is happening in the foreground ... It starts ramping earlier actually... late this week, and maxes around or just prior to the 15th... Usually it is along or near the apex, we engender a bomb or a series with aggregate energy. The operationals have a kind of 'correction vector' that is pointed toward amplitude when there is such a loud signal, yet they are lacking. This signal predates their typical extended stochastic bs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Tuesday at 11:11 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:11 PM 1 hour ago, eduggs said: Just a minor comment - triglycerides are not a form of cholesterol. They are lipids used to store excess carbs as fat. It's true that they will decrease if you reduce processed carbs and sugar intake. But they also sometimes increase in people who are trying to eat more healthily - particularly in people who increase consumption of vegetables and grains to compensate for a reduction in meat. I have a dad-bod...but all of my labwork and BP are pristine at 45 years of age. Secret is weight training. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Tuesday at 11:13 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:13 PM In fact, this 18z GFS run came in with a trough deep enough to get it done for the first time in this approach, but ... the wave spacing of the individual S/W's are interfering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Tuesday at 11:13 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:13 PM 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah I can just click a few buttons. But I’m not going to. Thanks for the assist 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Tuesday at 11:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:19 PM 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: In fact, this 18z GFS run came in with a trough deep enough to get it done for the first time in this approach, but ... the wave spacing of the individual S/W's are interfering. Always something.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted Tuesday at 11:37 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 11:37 PM 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted Tuesday at 11:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:38 PM 32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Is there anyway you can delete or move all that shit out of the thread and enforce keeping it out ? no one is forcing you to read people's opinions about how AGW could be impacting the weather and how to forecast it, and no one is forcing you to accept or agree with their opinions same goes for your opinions 2 1 1 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Tuesday at 11:51 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:51 PM CC runs Apr through Oct. Then we’re back to snowball earth. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted Tuesday at 11:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:52 PM Just an insane lack of anything across the whole nation for the foreseeable future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted yesterday at 12:01 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:01 AM 30.5 with sleet /zr mix . Pretty icy on driveway 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted yesterday at 12:03 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:03 AM 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: 30.5 with sleet /zr mix . Pretty icy on driveway Hopefully your neighbor’s Giants inflatable rips apart. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted yesterday at 12:03 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:03 AM 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: I really wish they’d put a stop to this fake climate change talk BS on here . It’s absolutely nauseating and no one cares about the agenda nonsense. 56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Is there anyway you can delete or move all that shit out of the thread and enforce keeping it out ? Agreez. Delete the above. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted yesterday at 12:03 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:03 AM 29° with a few raindrops and pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted yesterday at 12:05 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:05 AM 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Agreez. Delete the above. Glad we agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted yesterday at 12:16 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:16 AM 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 30.5 with sleet /zr mix . Pretty icy on driveway Hours to go before anything here. 20.8* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted yesterday at 12:21 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:21 AM 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Heh... pistol to head I'm more inclined to suggest the 13-16th based upon science of mass field modulation and correction ... The period after that isn't 'bad' per se, but honestly... we slip the +PNA and then see a new pattern signal right on it's heals that is an abrupt blossoming of a bona fide negative EPO ( not that weird N. Pac thing last month) ... I'm just referring to the actual spatial construct of the hemisphere in the deeper ranged ens system, all three agreeing in principle. The problem with that is, we could observe a seesaw in the pattern just the same ... a flip back "warm" ( ish ) in the E. There's a spatial synoptic argument for it. It shows up statistically/climatology on negative EPOs where a fair number of them actually drop heights in the W immediately downstream of the Alaskan sector ridge. A variation that wouldn't likely be sussed out at this range necessarily. I actually think in the winter where we have established cold on this side of the hemisphere, the flow rate will encourage lengthening L/W lengths ...that might offset the tucked west scenario, too. So some help perhaps That all said, I don't see that as encouraging as this rather powerful looking +PNA burst that is happening in the foreground ... It starts ramping earlier actually... late this week, and maxes around or just prior to the 15th... Usually it is along or near the apex, we engender a bomb or a series with aggregate energy. The operationals have a kind of 'correction vector' that is pointed toward amplitude when there is such a loud signal, yet they are lacking. This signal predates their typical extended stochastic bs. A very temp positive PNA before tanking once again, it’s a blimp not a regime shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted yesterday at 12:24 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:24 AM Considering how often progged "good patterns" end up with a whole lotta suck, I'm willing to roll the dice on this boring 15-day models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted yesterday at 12:25 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:25 AM 8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Hours to go before anything here. 20.8* Spitting sand grains in your old hood. Thought it wasn't supposed to come in till later? Gotta throw a few more logs on the fire pit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted yesterday at 12:27 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:27 AM Started as snow here.. fat flakes 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Considering how often progged "good patterns" end up with with suck, I'm willing to roll the dice on this boring 15-day models. That's my thought . We are more likely to get something by luck and chance than the perfect pattern. This maybe comes together??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Massive parachutes here. Surprised it started off at snow. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Just now, ORH_wxman said: Massive parachutes here. Surprised it started off at snow. Same here wasn't expecting it.. I thought we would sleet from the start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Started as snow here.. fat flakes Get well soon! I'm getting sick of having to look up model maps myself. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Massive parachutes here. Surprised it started off at snow. Shouldn't last long. It's pretty much rain now in southborough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Looks like there’s a brief period of high CC before the mixing moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 3 minutes ago, kdxken said: Get well soon! I'm getting sick of having to look up model maps myself. He said he was looking forward to a warmup this morning. He may need the ER. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: He said he was looking forward to a warmup this morning. He may need the ER. Got to get that fever down. He's delirious. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 6 minutes ago, kdxken said: Get well soon! I'm getting sick of having to look up model maps myself. Thanks ill be back at it soon 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: He said he was looking forward to a warmup this morning. He may need the ER. Maybe a semi warmup now.. starting to feel slightly better lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Just now, ineedsnow said: Thanks ill be back at it soon Maybe a semi warmup now.. starting to feel slightly better lol We need to wake up at 5:00 AM and see you with 5-10 Icon , JMA snowstorm posts. It really is uplifting to start the day 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supernovice Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Glad we removed the science related debate on the meteorology board to give the snowflakes their safe space. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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