January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Typhoon Tip]

53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will say, the ability of mother nature to cram every orifice from just about every angle with a multitude of home improvement appliances this decade has been impressive. La Nina (mostly), El Nino, -AO, +AO, - NAO, +NAO, +PNA, -PNA, +EPO, -EPO, -WPO, +WPO, cold, warm...the one constant has been a remarkable dearth of snowfall anywhere within about 50 miles of the ocean, east of I 495 and south of rt 2 in SNE. The only good news is that we have paid our dues.....20's, 50's, 80's, 2020's......get it out of the way now and hopefully not have to grab my ankles for 10 consecutive years again until I'm no longer lucid enough to realize how badly it sucks.

The model tenor as of this morning ( really... for the last 10 years - ) heading into that pattern after the 10th .. 11th, yeah, ... ample cold, but once again, it means compressed heights and damping of trafficking S/Ws that would otherwise buckle at short scales enough to induce events.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

it's pretty much dependable

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The model tenor as of this morning ( really... for the last 10 years - ) heading into that pattern after the 10th .. 11th, yeah, ... ample cold, but once again, it means compressed heights and damping S/W that would otherwise buckle at short scales enough to induce events.

 

I'm sure when one finally amplifies, it will go through the finger lakes, followed by one that explodes in the Maritimes...like clockwork-

[Typhoon Tip]

acceptance will set you free 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

acceptance will set you free 

I highly doubt my new climo is 37", dude....it's a bad stretch exacerbated by CC, I'm sure.

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm sure when one finally amplifies, it will go through the finger lakes, followed by one that explodes in the Maritimes...like clockwork-

not a bad surmise, all sarcasm aside ... 

the compression, unfortunately for some readers and types out there, is what happens when the polar winter imposes on a CC footprint - the latter is not going away.

the polar region is in fact warming at a faster pace than the mid and lower latitudes around the planet. check.  however, the key is 'warming' - it is not warm.  And in fact, where we are along the climate curve ...?  the polar regions are still imposing a   >  +d(G) during seasonal plummet comparing prior climate generations.  note, we are saying heights - there's also a catch there.  temperature variance in latitude, in the lower troposphere, don't always reflect all that.  heights are after homogenization of the whole system ... and there's still going to be -40 fuckum F cold air masses despite the deep atmosphere speeding up because the gradients in the winter are base-line like an elephant sitting on a trampoline. 

blah blah ... but yeah, that predicament sort biases that type of motion. 

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I highly doubt my new climo is 37", dude....it's a bad stretch exacerbated by CC, I'm sure.

Yeah, i'm just being tongue in cheek there.   Altho, i have become less annoyed over the years by these dearth winters.  in fact, that journey has begun to conjure more and more resent for winters, in general  - not that anyone asked.

I'm sitting here fending off fantasies of the smells of higher dp air.   Crispy TCUs at sunset.  Baseball games.   Hot girl disk golfers that show god's fantastic artistry when they rotate there hips and upper sinuous through a throw...  oh man.    nice bike rides and low energy bills. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, i'm just being tongue in cheek there.   altho, i have become less annoyed over the years by these dearth winters.  in fact, that journey has begun to conjure more and more resent for winters, in general  - not that anyone asked.

i'm sitting here fending off fantasies of the smells of higher dp air.   crispy tcus at sunset.  baseball games.   hot girl disk golfers that show god's fantastic artistry when they rotate there hips and upper sinuse through a throw...  oh man.    nice bike rides and low energy bills. 

TBH, when it's like this? I am, too. The wind ushering brutal cold and a couple of 1-2" road-salt inducing sieges per week gets old, and fast, as soon as that ball lands in Times square. 

[metagraphica]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, i'm just being tongue in cheek there.   altho, i have become less annoyed over the years by these dearth winters.  in fact, that journey has begun to conjure more and more resent for winters, in general  - not that anyone asked.

i'm sitting here fending off fantasies of the smells of higher dp air.   crispy tcus at sunset.  baseball games.   hot girl disk golfers that show god's fantastic artistry when they rotate there hips and upper sinuse through a throw...  oh man.    nice bike rides and low energy bills. 

Warm and green is where it's at.  F*ck this cold and snow shite.

[jbenedet]

2 hours ago, kdxken said:

13° here. Looks like the last single digits and lower teens for an extended period.. I'll take it.

Good riddance 

 

COL around here is way too high to make this tolerable on a persistent basis.

 

 

 

[George001]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Good riddance 

I’m hearing a lot of hype for the second half of January after the relaxation period. You nailed the early January period being a bust back when it was being hyped up, so I’m curious to hear your take on the second half of the month.

[Snowcrazed71]

So much Doom and gloom in here. I'm really not too concerned. We've been through this before and will go through it again. All it takes is one great storm to bring the morale back up for everyone. And, as you're all aware, we could get a storm that comes out of nowhere where everything falls right into place.

It's rare to get a perfect or even a great season, so if we keep our expectations lower, it will make having a bigger event even more exciting. I still believe it will happen this season ( as I'm holding the mud in my left hand for my face ). Lol

[UnitedWx]

I'd love to have a poll, or chart of everyone's age that participates in the forum discussion here. I'm pretty sure it would tell us a lot about what people expect regarding snowy VS non snowy winters. Sure CC likely has some effect, but so do average cycles. The "it's never going to be like it was" is SO overplayed... likely by youngsters 

[Great Snow 1717]

I will take the cold over " warm" all day long!  ...at least it feels like winter when it is cold..

[radarman]

3 hours ago, Angus said:

Everyone loves a good snow storm but the ice skating on the local ponds is outstanding right now even with the small layer of snow. I would love a good base of snow for xc skiing locally but give me good consistent cold for ice. 

Yeah, it's been amazing.  I'd say the best skating since 09/10.  We've had good days since then, but not so early and so consistently.  Pickup pond hockey is happening all over the valley like we were transported back in time 50 years.

[George001]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

I'd love to have a poll, or chart of everyone's age that participates in the forum discussion here. I'm pretty sure it would tell us a lot about what people expect regarding snowy VS non snowy winters. Sure CC likely has some effect, but so do average cycles. The "it's never going to be like it was" is SO overplayed... likely by youngsters 

Keeling curve has an extremely high (r^2 value of nearly 1) to global temps, and it is exponential, not linear. CC is underplayed if anything

[radarman]

Ice fishermen reporting 8-12" depths in general.  Probably more in the cold spots.  I'd have to think the ponds even in eastern MA would be plenty safe, but who knows these days.  It's like night and day, in temps and mindset.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, radarman said:

Ice fishermen reporting 8-12" depths in general.  Probably more in the cold spots.  I'd have to think the ponds even in eastern MA would be plenty safe, but who knows these days.  It's like night and day, in temps and mindset.

The edges will get punked up by the late week rain and warmth, but should still be plenty of ice once we refreeze.

People have been ice fishing in Franklin County for weeks. 

[WinterWolf]

15 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

I'd love to have a poll, or chart of everyone's age that participates in the forum discussion here. I'm pretty sure it would tell us a lot about what people expect regarding snowy VS non snowy winters. Sure CC likely has some effect, but so do average cycles. The "it's never going to be like it was" is SO overplayed... likely by youngsters 

Absolutely.  It was just last year that the clippers were said to be gone…you know to the new regime.  I guess we found out that is indeed not the case either.   This has all been seen and done before. As frustrating as it may be at times. Good cycles, not so good cycles…that’s the way it goes. The consistent cold has been nice for skiing and skating, and for a wintry feel. 
 

Let’s see how we do going forward after the brief thaw, and hopefully we can grab a few decent events, for all of SNE.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

not a bad surmise, all sarcasm aside ... 

the compression, unfortunately for some readers and types out there, is what happens when the polar winter imposes on a CC footprint - the latter is not going away.

the polar region is in fact warming at a faster pace than the mid and lower latitudes around the planet. check.  however, the key is 'warming' - it is not warm.  And in fact, where we are along the climate curve ...?  the polar regions are still imposing a   >  +d(G) during seasonal plummet comparing prior climate generations.  note, we are saying heights - there's also a catch there.  temperature variance in latitude, in the lower troposphere, don't always reflect all that.  heights are after homogenization of the whole system ... and there's still going to be -40 fuckum F cold air masses despite the deep atmosphere speeding up because the gradients in the winter are base-line like an elephant sitting on a trampoline. 

blah blah ... but yeah, that predicament sort biases that type of motion. 

Honest question....if the CC footprint only on the east coast?? Why are systems amplifying with reckless abandon over the lakes and near the Maritimes??

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

I'd love to have a poll, or chart of everyone's age that participates in the forum discussion here. I'm pretty sure it would tell us a lot about what people expect regarding snowy VS non snowy winters. Sure CC likely has some effect, but so do average cycles. The "it's never going to be like it was" is SO overplayed... likely by youngsters 

Both aspects are true (bold ^) ... I don't believe anyone in the conversation this morning imposed a notion that it was ALL CC.  It was probably me if that was the case HAHA. in which case my bad if so.  I don't think I did but whatever.  From me anyways, a lot is intended for dead-panned humor and commiseration.

Anywho, I was raised through the 70s and 80s last Century... which in prose may sound like I must be 120 years old but I'm just middle aged. I have the advantage of life in both eras; I was around before the CC acceleration began to take place, and am so now ...

I am also educated in Meteorology and Climate, which helps. 

The dearth snow periods of history, they are not always caused by the same governing circumstances.  That's A.  So, it's like comparing Ali to Tyson.  There's inevitably going to be generational bias, too.  We're human beings. So that's where you're right about that subjectivity.

However, data is glaring. There are certain aspects that are also truthful anecdotal accounting, adding to the hard science.  There are papers passing through the accreditation related to faster hemispheres/jets.  Also, so called "meanders" ...  these are pattern aberrations from normal, that when CC is removed they do not take place in computing labs.  The synergistic heat waves killing at greater mortality en masse around the world... Flights setting air-land speed records with greater frequency while taking advantage of west-east flowing winter time jets moving along at a 3rd sonic speed... And just the observation of height compression, which is related to that.  The extraordinary snow and rain rate events that exceed normal, observations in terms of increasing frequency - how many 500 year events do we have suffer in just 10 years before they are no longer just 500 year deals) again ... world over.

Rays right.  We are observing these environmental changes regardless of leading indicator spectrum - meaning the combination of various air, land, sea indexes.  I've been trying to raise awareness about this, in here ( which isn't not exactly moving humanity hahaha) for years, frankly.

[40/70 Benchmark]

My theory on that was the west warm pool favoring the MC phases, but I don't think that is as large of an issue this season with the MJO being mostly neutral and the WPO deeply negative....

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Honest question....if the CC footprint only on the east coast?? Why are systems amplifying with reckless abandon over the lakes and near the Maritimes??

 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My theory on that was the west warm pool favoring the MC phases, but I don't think that is as large of an issue this season with the MJO being mostly neutral and the WPO deeply negative....

 

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Both aspects are true (bold ^) ... I don't believe anyone in the conversation this morning imposed a notion that it was ALL CC.  It was probably me if that was the case HAHA. in which case my bad. HAHA.  From me anyways, a lot is intended for dead-panned humor and commiseration.

Anywho, I was raised through the 70s and 80s last Century... which in prose may sound like I must be 120 years old by I'm just middle aged. I have the advantage of life in both eras; I was around before the CC acceleration began to take place, and am so now ...

I am also educated in Meteorology and Climate, which helps. 

The dearth snow periods of history, they are not always caused by the same governing circumstances.  That's A.  So, it's like comparing Ali to Tyson.  There's going also be generational bias, too.  We're human beings. 

However, data is glaring. There are certain aspect that both anecdotal, and scienced.  There are papers passing through the accreditation related to faster hemispheres/jets.  Also, so called "meanders" ...  these are pattern aberrations from normal, that when CC is removed they do not take place in computing labs.  The synergistic heat waves killing at greater mortality en masse ... Flights setting air-land speed records with greater frequency while taking advantage of west-east flowing winter time jets moving along at a 3rd sonic speed... And just the observation of height compression..

Rays right.  We are observing these environmental changes regardless of leading indicator spectrum - mean the combination of various air, land, sea indexes. 

I was more responding to a couple random comments from the last 24 hours, but I totally understand. It just seems some seem to think that with the current CC situation that this is the new norm. Personally, I don't agree... however only time will tell what our future patterns morph into. I grew up in the same era, I'm 55 now. I've acted like a cranky 70 YO since I was 18 so 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 hours ago, Cold Miser said:

"Great"?

Let me know when the great begins for me as I must have missed the first round of great.

Well, whenever people (rightfully) point out that we squandered a pretty anomalous cold December, people jump in to tell us how 3 towns in SW CT are above normal for snowfall.

Ill tell you this though, they won’t be two weeks from now 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Well, whenever people (rightfully) point out that we squandered a pretty anomalous cold December, people jump in to tell us how 3 towns in SW CT are above normal for snowfall.

Ill tell you this though, they won’t be two weeks from now 

It's more like 4 towns lol .. But don't forget the great start for the mountains the great lakes and Ohio valley..  and much of the Mid-Atlantic is above climo.. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

I was more responding to a couple random comments from the last 24 hours, but I totally understand. It just seems some seem to think that with the current CC situation that this is the new norm. Personally, I don't agree... however only time will tell what our future patterns morph into. I grew up in the same era, I'm 55 now. I've acted like a cranky 70 YO since I was 18 so 

Sensible weather wise, it is a lot  like the 80s...clippers, front-enders and cold/dry blend....but that was a +PDO era that didn't yet have the CC footprint. Different means to a similar result.

[Typhoon Tip]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My theory on that was the west warm pool favoring the MC phases, but I don't think that is as large of an issue this season with the MJO being mostly neutral and the WPO deeply negative....

Hypothesis, but one I've formulated for knowing both the planetary wave spacing but also the interference schemes over time.  I think the whopper persistent -WPO hybrid has been suppressing the MJO from propagating out of the marine sub-c.

As an aside, the WPO was really more of a hybrid.   I'm inclined to suspect we didn't observe a better performing -WPO hemisphere.  Rather, one guided by an odd and possibly 'unique' blocking circumstance ( could be historically notable, tho under the radar)  One that just happened to overlap the WPO domain  and sag the numerology by intrusion.  It's the difference between numbers,  and then the actual synoptic/spatial placement of features in practice.   That thing was a bit too east.  It was also for 10 days too S at times which was interesting. But it was balanced by a trough that partially overlapped the WC of N/A down stream... which doesn't typically parlay very well here for winter enthusiasts.  The cold loading is where but the ridge was a negative interference...

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hypothesis, but one I've formulated for knowing both the planetary wave spacing but also the interference schemes over time.  I think the whopper persistent -WPO hybrid has been suppressing the MJO from propagating out of the marine sub-c.

As an aside, the WPO was really more of a hybrid.   I'm inclined to suspect we didn't observe a a better performing -WPO hemisphere.  Rather, one guided by an odd and possible 'unique' blocking circumstance - one that just happened to overlap the WPO domain  and sag the numerology.  It's the difference between numbers,  and then the actual synoptic/spatial placement of features in practice.   That thing was a bit too east.  It was also for 10 days too S. But it was balanced by a trough that partially overlapped the WC of N/A down stream... which isn't ever going to parlay very well here for winter enthusiasts. 

 

My edit to this statement:

I think the whopper persistent -WPO hybrid has been suppressing the MJO from COHERENTLY propagating out of the marine sub-c.

It has been denoted as being in phase 8 on several occasions throughout December, but if you viewed the hovmoller of vp, the wave was fragmented with some parcels remaining in the MC. Those MJO plots can be misleading...I have learned to rely more on the hovmoller to see what is actually happening. It's analogous to how actually playing out the H5 plot is more illuminating than simply looking at teleconnections.

I actually did mention this in one of my write-ups.

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My edit to this statement:

I think the whopper persistent -WPO hybrid has been suppressing the MJO from COHERENTLY propagating out of the marine sub-c.

It has been denoted as being in phase 8 on several occasions throughout December, but if you viewed the hovmoller of vp, the wave was fragmented with some parcels remaining in the MC. Those MJO plots can be misleading...I have learned to rely more on the hovmoller to see what is actually happening. It's analogous to how actually playing out the H5 plot is more illuminating than simply looking at teleconnections.

I actually did mention this in one of my write-ups.

yeah, that could work...

( hint, I'm consummately having to run back along these posts and tweak edit words in and out like that.  )  not that any would notice.