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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread


Baroclinic Zone
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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Some of this was just luck too. Cape getting 6” of wet snow a couple weeks ago and 2” here. Definitely feels like we left some on the table with such a cold month. 

Of course it's luck....people keep suggesting I live in a bad spot.....for frequent jacks, yes....but bottom line is I average over 60" and haven't received close to that in 8 years.

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I know I'm not Dave or ineedsnow, who jack in half of the storms...or even scooter, who frequently jacks in cold coastals...conditions have to be perfect for this area to JP....I just mean start getting consistent, representative snows...that's all. Just near 60" in a season, while n ORH county gets high 70s. Not a huge ask....I don't think...

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17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, if the next big storm whiffs, I am going to absolutely lose it...lo and behold, I am one of the few spots that managed a below average snowfall December with 8". North, west, south and east/northeast...porked in every direction.

This is why I'm not thrilled with the +PNA/-NAO combo.

Yeah man, I feel for you. It’s not hyperbole either, you have just absolutely struck out at your location. Even down here with this last event I’m well over average for December. Something has to break right for you.

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Just now, Kitz Craver said:

Yeah man, I feel for you. It’s not hyperbole either, you have just absolutely struck out at your location. Even down here with this last event I’m well over average for December. Something has to break right for you.

I let this last one roll off of my chest....I was so appreciative of that Xmas bone and knew I was in a bad spot for this. Hopefully snowy January en route.

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13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know I'm not Dave or ineedsnow, who jack in half of the storms...or even scooter, who frequently jacks in cold coastals...conditions have to be perfect for this area to JP....I just mean start getting consistent, representative snows...that's all. Just near 60" in a season, while n ORH county gets high 70s. Not a huge ask....I don't think...

I think you’ll get there.  

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29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, if the next big storm whiffs, I am going to absolutely lose it...lo and behold, I am one of the few spots that managed a below average snowfall December with 8". North, west, south and east/northeast...porked in every direction.

This is why I'm not thrilled with the +PNA/-NAO combo.

That early Dec system set a pretty steep gradient locally. Im at 12.5" but a couple miles west/north the Hudson coop and MHT are 14-16". Follows the theme of the past few seasons. Hopefully turns around and you get a CF or deffy band jack in Jan. 

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31 minutes ago, binbisso said:

I believe you would sign for this. Appreciate all your hard work 

...

Not speaking with confidence to any snow this that or the other ... but a significant event, Jan 6-7-8, has legs.  

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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mentioned on the forum that an online friend of mine has been targeting the Jan 8-12 period for a month or so...

 

probably different reasoning vectors converging on the same idea... 

Breakdown of the Pac and introduction of +PNA is an H.A. signal in the gross sense but we're seeing it already in ensemble clusters

 The EPS with an impressive spread at 240+ hours is getting above the 95th %tile for this long of a lead. 

image.png.7032aee78c03ad359445bb91d34f97f3.png

The GEFs still lag tho 

 

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