January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Man oh man. If you're a fan of winter the latest ensemble runs are for you. For your viewing pleasure, here's the entire 00z GEFS loop this time (EPS on the same page btw)... Check out what's going on as we start to move into February. Pay special attention to the TPV and the arctic. Notice how it splits into 2 main lobes with ridging increasingly overspreading the pole? With one of them landing in Hudson Bay stretching into eastern Canada. Back in the beginning of this thread I'd posted the precursor pattern to a Strat Split. Which occurs ~2 weeks prior to said events. Subtle changes in the hemispheric layout over the last week have resulted in a damn good match of that. Happening this weekend. The Sunday event is a part of that and fits right in that look. Then take a look at what is going on higher up in the Strat in about 2 weeks time. Ensembles are increasingly beginning to latch on to the idea of a PV split up above. Again, the EPS is doing this too. That is happening in conjunction with an increasingly -AO in the troposphere and a cold pattern already established. Probably worth mentioning that we currently have an amplified MJO passage through the Pacific in progress as well. On it's way to the Western Hemisphere. Which are correlated to these kinds of events also. Over the years, through reading various different sources on Strat events and ramifications. There was something to look for if you were hoping for it to be beneficial to your locale. That is an already cold pattern prior to and during a split. Which we also do look to have should this go off. So like I was saying yesterday... LFG!

Thanks. I hope nothing worse than cold and dry 

[LoboLeader1]

Spending the weekend here in the Berkshires, currently -5 here, 9 above back home in HPN.