January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[EasternLI]

5 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Insane to potentially stay below freezing for this long at NYC. It’s in fact more if you include the past few days. What’s the record?

I don't know. Maybe @donsutherland1 or @bluewave

[MJO812]

6z eps more west with coastal

[ForestHillWx]

Near perfect run with the high anchoring in to prevent this cutting inland too much. Long way to go, but damn, the pieces are on the board. 

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is just offshore 

just like it was a complete miss south several days before yesterdays MECS

[Snowshack]

24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro has below 0 temps for Friday morning for many areas . Also euro doesnt get above freezing for highs through February 9th.

Amazing how the last few years made us think stretches like this might be a thing of the past.  

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

Amazing how the last few years made us think stretches like this might be a thing of the past.  

didn't make all of us think that way I kept questioning that theory by posting this:

monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

many yearly stretches of below normal snowfall than normal to way above returns

[IrishRob17]

41 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Burial if this thing goes off. What's out there now isn't going anywhere. Might have to fire up the snowpack thread this year.

I have a very dense 16" at the stake this morning. 

[NorthShoreWx]

40 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Insane to potentially stay below freezing for this long at NYC. It’s in fact more if you include the past few days. What’s the record?

Record is 16 days in Jan - Feb 1961

[NorthShoreWx]

6 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

I have a very dense 16" at the stake this morning. 

I have an intelligent 11"

[UncleSalty]

Renowned Meteorologist Judson Jones chimes in.

[donsutherland1]

43 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I don't know. Maybe @donsutherland1 or @bluewave

16 consecutive days (January 19-February 3, 1961).

[North and West]

Would be an absolute KU bomb.   Show this to me Wednesday night and I'll take the bait. 

Agreed. It’s going to change.


.

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, UncleSalty said:

Renowned Meteorologist Judson Jones chimes in.

For those wondering about the location in Larchmont, the photo was taken on North Chatsworth Avenue looking toward Myrtle Boulevard (traffic light).

[ILoveWinter]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

16 consecutive days (January 19-February 3, 1961).

What are the chances we break this record in your opinion? We’ve already been below freezing since Saturday. 

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

What are the chances we break this record in your opinion? We’ve already been below freezing since Saturday. 

It will be a close call. A few days in early February could approach or reach freezing. Model skill that far out is low so the range of error is fairly high.

[BxEngine]

Ill take the over on saturdays temps, knyc will hit freezing then.

 

edit: theyll come close today too i think.

[dseagull]

25 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Ill take the over on saturdays temps, knyc will hit freezing then.

 

edit: theyll come close today too i think.

Snowpack will help.  Radiational cooling on cloudless nights will help. Low ceiling cloud cover will work against the city though.  I don't envy those who attempt to figure out urban heat outputs. Wayyy too dynamic.  In any case, this is a winter-lover's paradise thd next 10 days or more. 

[mob1]

Holy crap at the Euro, just wow!

[SnoSki14]

11 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Holy crap at the Euro, just wow!

If they're right then this weekend was just an appetizer 

That's 2'+ type potential that the Euro showed 

[SACRUS]

 

22 / 20  snow/sleet amounted to a concrete of 11-11.5 deep and its being cleared in phases.   Cold - cold - cold till old man winter takes the cold away  - not likely till after valentines day.   Cold to hold peaking this week and then again perhaps by or between the 9-12.  Storm tracking engaged for the 1/31 / 2/1 - 2/3 period as latest forecats close the trough off and steer coastal NE, and perhaps several days later. Sub freezing stretch only looks to be challenged briefly 2/3 but will see pending on track.  Otherwise temps near 0 inland / below further NW and metro/city and coastal sections sigle digits enhanced by the ice / snow cover.  In what appears to be a pattern right out of a weather board snow lovers novel 1/25 - 2/14 seems to be.  Now it'll have to keep delivering each chapter.

 

1/26 - 2/13 : Overall cold - much below avg 
1/31 or 2/1 - 2/2 : Storm threat

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

just like it was a complete miss south several days before yesterdays MECS

Yeah I trust the GFS the least at this point. Would like to see the CMC come around though.