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January 2026 OBS and Discussion


TriPol
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It's an actual legit phase 8 assist from the MJO we're getting this time IMHO. The first time, earlier this season, was not as far as I'm concerned. I've been liking ~Feb 1st quietly for a little while now for a big signal to show up and finally it does. I think that period fits in really well with a bit of lag time. Nice to see all models latching on to this idea more now. Even nicer to see the EPS with spread in direction of the BM. I think it's coming.

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Yeah, next weekend looks like another system with the Euro AI taking the lead. It had this weekends system coming up the coast while the OP Euro and EPS and GFS and GEFS were too suppressed. The GFS and GEFS were the most suppressed.

The EPS-AIFS and AIFS single were first showing next weekends system more defined and just offshore last few days while the OP Euro and EPS and GFS were more suppressed.

The 0z guidance now has the ridge and trough axis further west allowing the trough to go negative tilt quicker for the benchmark Miller A Southern Stream KU potential.

It would be wild if the 10 year major KU snowstorm pattern in January 1996, February 2006, January 2016, and February 2026 worked out. 

EPS-AIFS and AIFS single are now the highest scoring models

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