January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[SACRUS]

11 / 8 - snow (about 2.9 on the ground).  Cold / snow / mix later.  Cold - frigid week with overall cold below - much below avg.  Some moderation between 2/3 - 2/6 before cold returns.  If the 1994 like pattern continues - would expect another bout of snow/ice in the next 7-9 days.

 

 

 

[wdrag]

Don,

I think we will see our coldest (60% non-stat based) NYC CP temp since 2019 of 1 or 2 above between Wed-Sat.  Your odds?  

I am seeing MOS and 2M temps missing too warm on mins NYC.  I use GFS/EC 2M blend for the countryside low, but typically those models dont handle the urban very well. In this case, now that we have so much fresh snow on the ground... it should be relatively easy to get down to near zero in the city on one of these nights. Noting MOS errors  significantly too warm for the city the past two mornings. 

Your stats-impressions on this possibility?

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 59 (2024)
NYC: 60 (1967)
LGA: 57 (2024)
JFK: 55 (2024)


Lows:

EWR: -1 (1935)
NYC: 2 (1945)
LGA: 2 (1945)
JFK: 5 (1961)

 

Historical:

 

1821 - The Hudson River was frozen solid during the midst of the coldest winter in forty-one years. Thousands of persons crossed the ice from New York City to New Jersey, and refreshment taverns were set up in the middle of the river to warm pedestrians. (David Ludlum)

1837 - At 7 PM a display of the Northern Lights danced above Burlington, VT. Its light was equal to the full moon. Snow and other objects reflecting the light were deeply tinged with a blood red hue. Blue, yellow and white streamers were also noted. (The Weather Channel)

 

1937: Las Vegas, Nevada dropped to 8 degrees above zero, setting a record low for the city.

 

1949: Las Vegas, Nevada, recorded 4.7 inches of snow. This brought the monthly snowfall total to 16.7 inches which still ranks as their snowiest month on record

1965 - Alta, UT, was in the midst of a storm that left the town buried under 105 inches of snow establishing a record for the state. (David Ludlum)

1987 - The second major storm in three days hit the Eastern Seaboard producing up to 15 inches of snow in Virginia, Maryland and Delaware. Up to 30 inches of snow covered the ground in Virginia following the two storms. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - High winds created blizzard conditions in the mountains of Colorado. Winds gusted to 109 mph at Echo Lake, and a wind gust to 193 mph was reported atop Mount Evans. A "nor'easter" moving up the Atlantic Coast spread heavy snow from the Carolinas to New England, with as much as 16 inches reported in the Poconos of eastern Pennsylvania. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Bitter cold air, coming down from Alaska, settled over the Northern Rockies. Wilson WY reported a morning low of 48 degrees below zero. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the south central U.S. One thunderstorm in north central Texas spawned a tornado which injured three persons at Troy. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Low pressure developed explosively over east central Missouri and moved into Lower Michigan producing high winds and heavy snow across parts of Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin. Wind gusts to 60 mph and up to a foot of snow created near blizzard conditions in southeastern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Wind gusts in Indiana reached 76 mph at Wabash. Thunderstorms associated with the storm produced wind gusts to 54 mph at Fort Madison IA. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2000 - Heavy snow fell from the Carolinas to New England, with up to 20 inches of snow and five deaths reported. (NCDC)

Jan 25, 2000: 5.6 inches of snowfall (combo of mix / dry slotted kept totals down)  Other areas 6 - 12 inches, more north and the mid atlantic

[bluewave]

The EPS-AIFS forecast for the system next weekend is to track just offshore as it looks like the ridge-trough axis is currently forecast to be a little too far east.

It’s indicating that the we may see a mean retrogression in the 500mb height field in early February. So the next system closer to the 6th is currently forecast to be closer to the coast.  

We’ll see how this goes since the longer range Euro AI models did a great job with today’s winter storm. The regular Euro and GFS suites were too suppressed. Plus the AIFS single and ensembles are the new highest scoring models. 

 

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/178/news/aifs-new-ecmwf-forecasting-system

[brooklynwx99]

yeah, we have seen this signal grow since yesterday