January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[LoboLeader1]

Spending the weekend here in the Berkshires, currently -5 here, 9 above back home in HPN. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

I noticed that my Sunday overnight forecast changed from "Wintry Mix" to "Snow/Sleet", while all the totals remained the same.

Does anyone know if Is there actually a technical definition of "Wintry Mix"?  Was it changed to "Snow/Sleet" because "Wintry Mix" actually means snow, sleet, and freezing rain, and freezing rain is now no longer expected, or something along those lines?  Or is it arbitrary?

[donsutherland1]

14 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I noticed that my Sunday overnight forecast changed from "Wintry Mix" to "Snow/Sleet", while all the totals remained the same.

Does anyone know if Is there actually a technical definition of "Wintry Mix"?  Was it changed to "Snow/Sleet" because "Wintry Mix" actually means snow, sleet, and freezing rain, and freezing rain is now no longer expected, or something along those lines?  Or is it arbitrary?

Wintry mix is a more general description that includes any type of winter precipitation (snow, sleet, freezing rain). Snow/sleet is more specific.

[NEG NAO]

IF this is still on the models on Tuesday - time for another storm thread

[Jersey_Snowhole]

12z euro is cold all the way through the run . 

[steve392]

Those winds last night really showed me how crappy my house is at 80 years old.  Every inch of space you can see a Crack air was blowing through it. 

[MANDA]

Had a low here this morning of 1.

List of some NJ mins for today.

Warmest minimum was 11 at Point Pleasant.

[steve392]

Brrr

 

[Snowlover11]

High of 16F. Down to 13F.

[jm1220]

Back down to 14.

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, steve392 said:

Brrr

 

I can still hear the music that went with that.

[NorthShoreWx]

15° here.  The dewpoint is -6°!

Todays min/max was 10/18.

I was tempted to start a separate obs thread for tomorrow, but I figured one of the kids would want to do that.  They like that.  It's like when we let them put the envelope in the collection plate at church.

[tdp146]

For the south shore LI guys, I wonder how long until you walk to fire island. 

[donsutherland1]

Frigid air covered the region today. The low at Central Park was 9° when the low was just 3°. That was its first single-digit temperature since February 4, 2023. The high temperature in Central Park was 17°. That was its first high temperature below 20° since January 21, 2025 when the high was 19°. It was also the coldest high temperature since December 24, 2022 when the mercury topped out at 15°.

The stage is now set for New York City's biggest snowstorm in nearly four or five years. Snow will arrive early tomorrow morning, possibly before sunrise. A significant snowfall is likely in and around the New York City area and surrounding region, even as a transition to sleet is likely. 

New York City and its nearby suburbs will likely pick up 6"-12" of snow. Areas to the north and west of the City will receive 12"-18" of snow. The central Jersey Shore and eastern Long Island will likely see 4"-8" of snow.

Final estimates:

Albany: 14"-20"
Allentown: 8"-14"
Atlantic City: 3"-6"
Baltimore: 6"-12"
Binghamton: 12"-18"
Boston: 14"-20"
Bridgeport: 8"-14"
Concord: 12"-18"
Hartford: 12"-18"
Islip: 4"-8"
New York City: 6"-12"
Newark: 6"-12"
Philadelphia: 6"-12"
Poughkeepsie: 12"-18"
Portland: 12"-18"
Providence: 12"-18"
Richmond: 3"-6"
Scranton: 12"-18"
Washington, DC: 6"-12"

The last time New York City saw a 6" or greater snowfall was January 28-29, 2022 when 8.3" fell. Its last 10" or above snowfall occurred during January 31-February 3, 2021 when 17.4" accumulated. 

Arctic air will return to the region as the storm departs. Highs will be mainly in the lower 20s through Friday. Tuesday could again see highs top out in the teens in New York City. the last winter with more than one high in the teens was Winter 2018-19 when there were two such days. Moreover, New York City has the potential to see the temperature dip into the single digits for lows on or more days during this period. Some snow flurries or snow showers are possible Thursday night into Friday morning.

Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. 

For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was -18.88 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.391 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.6° (3.1° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[psv88]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Frigid air covered the region today. The low at Central Park was 9° when the low was just 3°. That was its first single-digit temperature since February 4, 2023. The high temperature in Central Park was 17°. That was its first high temperature below 20° since January 21, 2025 when the high was 19°. It was also the coldest high temperature since December 24, 2022 when the mercury topped out at 15°.

The stage is now set for New York City's biggest snowstorm in nearly four or five years. Snow will arrive early tomorrow morning, possibly before sunrise. A significant snowfall is likely in and around the New York City area and surrounding region, even as a transition to sleet is likely. 

New York City and its nearby suburbs will likely pick up 6"-12" of snow. Areas to the north and west of the City will receive 12"-18" of snow. The central Jersey Shore and eastern Long Island will likely see 4"-8" of snow.

Final estimates:

Albany: 14"-20"
Allentown: 8"-14"
Atlantic City: 3"-6"
Baltimore: 6"-12"
Binghamton: 12"-18"
Boston: 14"-20"
Bridgeport: 8"-14"
Concord: 12"-18"
Hartford: 12"-18"
Islip: 4"-8"
New York City: 6"-12"
Newark: 6"-12"
Philadelphia: 6"-12"
Poughkeepsie: 12"-18"
Portland: 12"-18"
Providence: 12"-18"
Richmond: 3"-6"
Scranton: 12"-18"
Washington, DC: 6"-12"

The last time New York City saw a 6" or greater snowfall was January 28-29, 2022 when 8.3" fell. Its last 10" or above snowfall occurred during January 31-February 3, 2021 when 17.4" accumulated. 

Arctic air will return to the region as the storm departs. Highs will be mainly in the lower 20s through Friday. Tuesday could again see highs top out in the teens in New York City. the last winter with more than one high in the teens was Winter 2018-19 when there were two such days. Moreover, New York City has the potential to see the temperature dip into the single digits for lows on or more days during this period. Some snow flurries or snow showers are possible Thursday night into Friday morning.

Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. 

For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was -18.88 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.391 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.6° (3.1° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

Thanks Don. The 4-8” at Islip seems way too low to me. Nothing shows that, but I guess we’ll see. 

[donsutherland1]

Just now, psv88 said:

Thanks Don. The 4-8” at Islip seems way too low to me. Nothing shows that, but I guess we’ll see. 

It might be low. That was one of the toughest areas. I erred on the side of conservatism. Hopefully, it is low.

[WeatherGeek2025]

anyone know the high for Central Park today?

[EastonSN+]

WOW just saw the RDPS, EURO and EURO AI. 

Shocked they moved THAT far south. 

[steve392]

3 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I can still hear the music that went with that.

And the alert to the warning screens

 

[Wannabehippie]

7 minutes ago, steve392 said:

And the alert to the warning screens

 

where do you go to get the classic weather channel graphics?

 

[Snowlover11]

10F. See if I can hit single digits before the storm.

[steve392]

20 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

where do you go to get the classic weather channel graphics?

 

https://weatherstar.netbymatt.com/

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

anyone know the high for Central Park today?

Today's high was 17°,

[MANDA]

20 minutes ago, steve392 said:

https://weatherstar.netbymatt.com/

Wow, cool stuff !

[Eduardo]

What are the chances the East River freezes?