January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[jm1220]

33 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Just read an article that ski resorts out west are hurting for snow. As of this month Colorado statewide snowpack is @ 63% of average, with some areas recording their lowest levels in history. Officials blame a persistent high pressure ridge has blocked storms, resulting in a warmer and drier winter. 

 

Thankfully they have a long time to catch up. I think some of Denver's biggest storms have been in April. 

[lee59]

I realize everyone is focused on this weekends storm and for good reason, but the cold could be more historic. NYC has a possibility of breaking the longest streak of below 32 temperatures. Also looks like January will be the coldest in at least 10 years.

[[email protected]]

2 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I realize everyone is focused on this weekends storm and for good reason, but the cold could be more historic. NYC has a possibility of breaking the longest streak of below 32 temperatures. Also looks like January will be the coldest in at least 10 years.

I am not impressed! The city might now go below 10 during the entire stretch.

[lee59]

I will be impressed if it happens.

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

Heads up on the gfs

 

Crawling coastal storm incoming 

[MJO812]

Gfs with a coastal snowstorm on February 2nd.

[Stormlover74]

Crazy how it keeps showing it 10 days out

[Stormlover74]

Cmc has it too..not sure if it comes up the coast yet

[Nibor]

What's the downstream lag time on the MJO phases? If any.

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Just read an article that ski resorts out west are hurting for snow. As of this month Colorado statewide snowpack is @ 63% of average, with some areas recording their lowest levels in history. Officials blame a persistent high pressure ridge has blocked storms, resulting in a warmer and drier winter. 

 

This has been one of the rare instances of significant aspects of the winter 500 mb pattern becoming established in November and carrying over into the winter. 

 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Cmc has it too..not sure if it comes up the coast yet

It is

[SnoSki14]

There's a sneaky clipper that tries to amplify as it dives in ahead of any early Feb threat. 

Keep an eye on that 

[Wannabehippie]

Tonight on the Joe and Joe show on youtube, the Joes will be joined by DT, Alan Kaspar, Bill Goodman.

I hope it is ok to post this here.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=dL7K-oOsNuY


 

[coastalplainsnowman]

4 hours ago, lee59 said:

I realize everyone is focused on this weekends storm and for good reason, but the cold could be more historic. NYC has a possibility of breaking the longest streak of below 32 temperatures. Also looks like January will be the coldest in at least 10 years.

It's a good point.  We're going to go back below freezing in a few hours and potentially not see above freezing again until not just the middle of next week, but middle of the *following* week.  By that point the first calm 40 degree day with sunshine, whenever it happens again, is going to feel like a beach day.

[NEG NAO]

FYI - Goodman, Kasper and DT will be special guests tonight on The Joe and Joe Weather Show at 7:30 on You Tube.

[MANDA]

59 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Tonight on the Joe and Joe show on youtube, the Joes will be joined by DT, Alan Kaspar, Bill Goodman.

I hope it is ok to post this here.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=dL7K-oOsNuY


 

One of those guys has no business being there.  

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, MANDA said:

One of those guys has no business being there.  

Hes on there all the time

[MANDA]

35 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Hes on there all the time

He may will be, I don't watch.  In this case he will be so far out of his league.  Honestly I find the guy to be 5 bricks short of a load.  A little cray cray if you ask me but then again nobody did so....moving on.

[donsutherland1]

The Arctic Oscillation has averaged -0.433 this winter. 65% of days have seen a negative AO and 44% have seen the AO at -1.000 or below. Winter 2024-2025 had an AO average of -0.498 through January 23.

Arctic air will pour into the region tonight. That will set the stage for the region's biggest snowstorm so far this winter and in a number of years.

The temperature will likely stay below 20° in New York City and much of the region tomorrow. The last time that happened in New York City was January 21, 2025 when the high was 19°. 

Snow will arrive early on Sunday. A significant snowfall is likely in and around the New York City area and surrounding region, even as a transition to sleet is likely. At present, it appears that New York City and its nearby suburbs are in line for 6"-12" of snow. Areas to the north and west of the City where ratios will be higher and mixing is less likely will likely see 12"-18" of snow. Lesser amounts of 4"-8" appear likely along the central Jersey Shore and across eastern Long Island.

Initial estimates:

Albany: 12"-18"
Allentown: 12"-18"
Atlantic City: 3"-6"
Baltimore: 6"-12"
Binghamton: 12"-18"
Boston: 12"-18"
Bridgeport: 8"-14"
Concord: 12"-18"
Hartford: 12"-18"
Islip: 4"-8"
New York City: 6"-10"
Newark: 6"-12"
Philadelphia: 6"-12"
Poughkeepsie: 12"-18"
Portland: 14"-22"
Providence: 12"-18"
Richmond: 3"-6"
Scranton: 12"-18"
Washington, DC: 6"-12"

The last time New York City saw a 6" or greater snowfall was January 28-29, 2022 when 8.3" fell. Its last 10" or above snowfall occurred during January 31-February 3, 2021 when 17.4" accumulated. 

Frigid air will return to the region as the storm departs. Highs will be mainly in the lower 20s through Friday. Tuesday could again see highs topping out only in the teens in New York City. Moreover, New York City has the potential to see the temperature dip into the single digits for lows on or more days during this period. Some snow flurries or snow showers are possible Thursday night into Friday morning.

Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. 

For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was -19.59 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.243 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 99% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.6° (3.1° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

bring it

[Jersey_Snowhole]

God the gfs is really on so crazy s@!t

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

God the gfs is really on so crazy s@!t

It fits the pattern

-NAO

-AO

+PNA

Mjo 8

[EasternLI]

Been preoccupied watching the weekend storm, but man... Have a look at the whole 12z EPS... LFG