mob1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Still in fantasy range, but it would be nice to finish one storm and immediately start tracking the next one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 GFS shows a blizzard for next Sunday, Cmc shows snow and than a blizzard coming up the east coast by next sunday! This is a real winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 29 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: GFS shows a blizzard for next Sunday, Cmc shows snow and than a blizzard coming up the east coast by next sunday! This is a real winter! I'll say this: It's real nice to actually have multiple storms to track. Last few winters have been boring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 A rare cold weather advisory NJZ006-105>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-231100- /O.NEW.KOKX.CW.Y.0001.260124T0300Z-260124T1500Z/ Hudson-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union- New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk- Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens- Southern Nassau- 107 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 ...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Very cold wind chills around 5 below expected. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 10 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frostbite and hypothermia will occur if unprotected skin is exposed to these temperatures for any prolonged period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Meanwhile trying to hold on to my snowcover at 45F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Check out the rapid ice buildup on Lake Erie over the last 10 days or so. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_NE/loop60v.html 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Man oh man the cold just keeps unloading out of Canada over the next 10 days or so and MAYBE into early February. The actual temperatures and departure from normal maps are pretty astounding honestly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 14 minutes ago, MANDA said: Man oh man the cold just keeps unloading out of Canada over the next 10 days or so and MAYBE into early February. The actual temperatures and departure from normal maps are pretty astounding honestly. Yeah if not for the thaw we would've seen a solid -6 or 7 for the month 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 You don't see a map like this every Winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I’m surprised nobody’s talking about how warm it is today. Much warmer than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: A rare cold weather advisory NJZ006-105>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-231100- /O.NEW.KOKX.CW.Y.0001.260124T0300Z-260124T1500Z/ Hudson-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union- New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk- Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens- Southern Nassau- 107 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 ...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Very cold wind chills around 5 below expected. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 10 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frostbite and hypothermia will occur if unprotected skin is exposed to these temperatures for any prolonged period of time. When was the last time we saw this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 doesn't appear phase will be clean on the 18z Nam, southern vort is hanging back more than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 23 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: I’m surprised nobody’s talking about how warm it is today. Much warmer than forecast. Got up to 45 here. Not sure what the forecast was. I wasn't paying attention. I like that my heating system got a 1 day reprieve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, the_other_guy said: I’m surprised nobody’s talking about how warm it is today. Much warmer than forecast. 49 today, forecast was 44 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 46.8 & 46.5 at my stations, I think forecast was for a high of 44 or 45. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, uofmiami said: 46.8 & 46.5 at my stations, I think forecast was for a high of 44 or 45. *48 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Arctic air is poised to return to the area tomorrow. A frigid weekend lies ahead. That will set the stage for the region's biggest snowstorm so far this winter and perhaps in a number of years. The temperature will likely stay below 20° in New York City and much of the region on Saturday. The last time that happened in New York City was January 21, 2025 when the high was 19°. Snow could arrive on Sunday. A significant snowfall is likely in and around the New York City area and surrounding region, even as a transition to sleet is likely. At present, it appears that New York City and its nearby suburbs are in line for 6"-12" of snow. Higher amounts are likely north and west of the City where ratios will be higher and mixing is less likely. There could be a few pockets of 12"-18" amounts in that region. Lesser amounts, probably in the 4"-8" range appear likely along the central Jersey Shore and across parts of Long Island. The last time New York City saw a 6" or greater snowfall was January 28-29, 2022 when 8.3" fell. Its last 10" or above snowfall occurred during January 31-February 3, 2021 when 17.4" accumulated. There remains uncertainty and it may still be another day or two before the details can be pinned down with high confidence. Very cold air will return to the region as the storm departs. Highs will be in the 20s through at least midweek. Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was -4.52 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.162 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 98% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.6° (3.1° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Gfs with another snowstorm next weekend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Next sunday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 12 hours ago, MJO812 said: Gfs with another snowstorm next weekend That would be a KU blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Following the snowstorm this weekend I would like to see the ridge axis out West back off a little to allow coastal development closer in instead of further offshore like the EPS and EPS-AIFS into next weekend. Many times we get a snow event at the start of a pattern and at the end. So it looks like the snow potential will continue into at least early or perhaps mid-February with the exact storm dates to be determined later. I am happy that the long advertised more active STJ pattern came to pass as there is only so much snow we can get exclusively from Northern Stream disturbances here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Next sunday Snowmegaly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Too good to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Gfs for next weekend 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 48 minutes ago, bluewave said: Following the snowstorm this weekend I would like to see the ridge axis out West back off a little to allow coastal development closer in instead of further offshore like the EPS and EPS-AIFS into next weekend. Many times we get a snow event at the start of a pattern and at the end. So it looks like the snow potential will continue into at least early or perhaps mid-February with the exact storm dates to be determined later. I am happy that the long advertised more active STJ pattern came to pass as there is only so much snow we can get exclusively from Northern Stream disturbances here. Just read an article that ski resorts out west are hurting for snow. As of this month Colorado statewide snowpack is @ 63% of average, with some areas recording their lowest levels in history. Officials blame a persistent high pressure ridge has blocked storms, resulting in a warmer and drier winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bringmesnow1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 10 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: Gfs for next weekend GFS is on meth lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, bringmesnow1 said: GFS is on meth lol Pattern is explosive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bringmesnow1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Pattern is explosive I want it to be correct, but I'm just saying it's had issues for many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 15 minutes ago, bringmesnow1 said: I want it to be correct, but I'm just saying it's had issues for many years. It can sniff these out first and can also be horribly wrong of course. Hopefully by Monday the cmc and euro start showing something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 33 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said: Just read an article that ski resorts out west are hurting for snow. As of this month Colorado statewide snowpack is @ 63% of average, with some areas recording their lowest levels in history. Officials blame a persistent high pressure ridge has blocked storms, resulting in a warmer and drier winter. Thankfully they have a long time to catch up. I think some of Denver's biggest storms have been in April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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