January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[Franklin0529]

There's a thread for this weekend everyone 

[weatherpruf]

48 minutes ago, Monty said:

Dude. She will have other birthdays, including one next year. She's not even your wife. Stay home and enjoy what could be historic. Tell her flights canceled it's out of your control and send regards. 

never keep a lady waiting. its ok for her to keep you waiting, but don't do it to her. it will never ever be forgotten, and when she tells her friends about you, that's the story they're going to hear, and so will the new boyfriend....

[TriPol]

18 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Thanks - I also like your discussion write up in the new thread - very well written.

I'm learning from the best.

[vegan_edible]

6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

never keep a lady waiting. its ok for her to keep you waiting, but don't do it to her. it will never ever be forgotten, and when she tells her friends about you, that's the story they're going to hear, and so will the new boyfriend....

didnt want to say anything but she's had a particularly bad past year and this just doesnt sound like a good idea lmao

[RU848789]

20 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Does the blend of models include AI models too?


.

According to Google AI it does, lol, but none of the links provided showed that, but I may have missed them as the NOAA/NBM model sites are fairly obtuse to navigate.  

https://www.google.com/search?q=are+AI+models+incorporated+into+the+national+blend+of+models+nbm%3F&sca_esv=19fb1bea8894757c&hl=en&biw=1536&bih=791&aic=0&sxsrf=ANbL-n5dmwLPcf4aXzuAo62-IxWijdkJ8Q%3A1768855885220&ei=TZluaY2UDauw5NoP_M6SKQ&ved=2ahUKEwj7187kvZiSAxUMKVkFHbE0GoIQ0NsOegQIAxAB&uact=5&sclient=gws-wiz-serp&udm=50&fbs=ADc_l-aN0CWEZBOHjofHoaMMDiKp0UJuhqwKhR0QUhF54-6jIZ4fQLFxpd-X3cjBjwn-bveyDdFq6p_1Ihh_Ql-GGwzDrx965YmoBHPdZqjpk_wLcr87EOVDrNef7abUsdy7lRfcH9HduY3ypbiqLxbsL21UWg8kiZoouB9nEp7CN9iwIQTZNErSg2mYdqm_lNuaH6dd_mwj6XsekAu4ZQqdcS9xvsucig&aep=10&ntc=1&mstk=AUtExfCZMemFB51m4S6HuNpB6ZNqrL2MZ9iLPahXcV3f9nftZMz8VEzzsfF-0k2B-q1ClJtpFKAIRs17eCrRjNILMTlVVcVkZxKEKkSoMhND4k9NAAnpyuUD4LpYj0FYBfilE1SzOLm9790fcu7lDVN0EXj4GqfsCsZ4gWiF4lInPSzlkYrVG91NioCgDaQMtGVkmT5DgMkqKzjM6gf9wyLR3ITA6bVj4HTLhWcoHFLcgc6NtdsOzuOvgDfx9jwzswqit5Wm-vtMcmvpe-pBmNjwRnibMNwdPrK5au2jiAlDTHAsX3NbE7ip1N5HIhaT231AxVpgYIQTbV-MGiOCa057HD6O_lwQNMtlvaTR_F7pPSnmk2tr-X0oanP7KbG2ehhxQu1mcgzfpC1lvmY_s41mlOhsLGoCnA6bNQ&csuir=1&mtid=5ZluabyWG7ul5NoP5OeLiQM

[RU848789]

26 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

They’re concerned like many others with suppression

Ok, but the NBM is their bible, so if it's showing 6" of snow, the WPC map ought to reflect that IMO.  

[Nibor]

5 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

According to Google AI it does, lol, but none of the links provided showed that, but I may have missed them as the NOAA/NBM model sites are fairly obtuse to navigate.  

https://www.google.com/search?q=are+AI+models+incorporated+into+the+national+blend+of+models+nbm%3F&sca_esv=19fb1bea8894757c&hl=en&biw=1536&bih=791&aic=0&sxsrf=ANbL-n5dmwLPcf4aXzuAo62-IxWijdkJ8Q%3A1768855885220&ei=TZluaY2UDauw5NoP_M6SKQ&ved=2ahUKEwj7187kvZiSAxUMKVkFHbE0GoIQ0NsOegQIAxAB&uact=5&sclient=gws-wiz-serp&udm=50&fbs=ADc_l-aN0CWEZBOHjofHoaMMDiKp0UJuhqwKhR0QUhF54-6jIZ4fQLFxpd-X3cjBjwn-bveyDdFq6p_1Ihh_Ql-GGwzDrx965YmoBHPdZqjpk_wLcr87EOVDrNef7abUsdy7lRfcH9HduY3ypbiqLxbsL21UWg8kiZoouB9nEp7CN9iwIQTZNErSg2mYdqm_lNuaH6dd_mwj6XsekAu4ZQqdcS9xvsucig&aep=10&ntc=1&mstk=AUtExfCZMemFB51m4S6HuNpB6ZNqrL2MZ9iLPahXcV3f9nftZMz8VEzzsfF-0k2B-q1ClJtpFKAIRs17eCrRjNILMTlVVcVkZxKEKkSoMhND4k9NAAnpyuUD4LpYj0FYBfilE1SzOLm9790fcu7lDVN0EXj4GqfsCsZ4gWiF4lInPSzlkYrVG91NioCgDaQMtGVkmT5DgMkqKzjM6gf9wyLR3ITA6bVj4HTLhWcoHFLcgc6NtdsOzuOvgDfx9jwzswqit5Wm-vtMcmvpe-pBmNjwRnibMNwdPrK5au2jiAlDTHAsX3NbE7ip1N5HIhaT231AxVpgYIQTbV-MGiOCa057HD6O_lwQNMtlvaTR_F7pPSnmk2tr-X0oanP7KbG2ehhxQu1mcgzfpC1lvmY_s41mlOhsLGoCnA6bNQ&csuir=1&mtid=5ZluabyWG7ul5NoP5OeLiQM

I can't find anything that confirms it but based on what the NBM is showing I'd argue they are not.

[Jt17]

I can't find anything that confirms it but based on what the NBM is showing I'd argue they are not.

Yea agreed, this is why I asked. Just looks like the OPs


.

[donsutherland1]

26 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

What are Northern  Mid-Atlantic and New England in the dark blue for ? its not clear if its the cold or snow or both

Cold. Here's the precipitation:

[donsutherland1]

22 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

According to Google AI it does, lol, but none of the links provided showed that, but I may have missed them as the NOAA/NBM model sites are fairly obtuse to navigate.  

https://www.google.com/search?q=are+AI+models+incorporated+into+the+national+blend+of+models+nbm%3F&sca_esv=19fb1bea8894757c&hl=en&biw=1536&bih=791&aic=0&sxsrf=ANbL-n5dmwLPcf4aXzuAo62-IxWijdkJ8Q%3A1768855885220&ei=TZluaY2UDauw5NoP_M6SKQ&ved=2ahUKEwj7187kvZiSAxUMKVkFHbE0GoIQ0NsOegQIAxAB&uact=5&sclient=gws-wiz-serp&udm=50&fbs=ADc_l-aN0CWEZBOHjofHoaMMDiKp0UJuhqwKhR0QUhF54-6jIZ4fQLFxpd-X3cjBjwn-bveyDdFq6p_1Ihh_Ql-GGwzDrx965YmoBHPdZqjpk_wLcr87EOVDrNef7abUsdy7lRfcH9HduY3ypbiqLxbsL21UWg8kiZoouB9nEp7CN9iwIQTZNErSg2mYdqm_lNuaH6dd_mwj6XsekAu4ZQqdcS9xvsucig&aep=10&ntc=1&mstk=AUtExfCZMemFB51m4S6HuNpB6ZNqrL2MZ9iLPahXcV3f9nftZMz8VEzzsfF-0k2B-q1ClJtpFKAIRs17eCrRjNILMTlVVcVkZxKEKkSoMhND4k9NAAnpyuUD4LpYj0FYBfilE1SzOLm9790fcu7lDVN0EXj4GqfsCsZ4gWiF4lInPSzlkYrVG91NioCgDaQMtGVkmT5DgMkqKzjM6gf9wyLR3ITA6bVj4HTLhWcoHFLcgc6NtdsOzuOvgDfx9jwzswqit5Wm-vtMcmvpe-pBmNjwRnibMNwdPrK5au2jiAlDTHAsX3NbE7ip1N5HIhaT231AxVpgYIQTbV-MGiOCa057HD6O_lwQNMtlvaTR_F7pPSnmk2tr-X0oanP7KbG2ehhxQu1mcgzfpC1lvmY_s41mlOhsLGoCnA6bNQ&csuir=1&mtid=5ZluabyWG7ul5NoP5OeLiQM

The NBM does not incorporate the AI guidance. Here's the list for models used for purposes of calculating snowfall:

[Jt17]

The NBM does not incorporate the AI guidance. Here's the list for models used for purposes of calculating snowfall:

Thank you!


.

[wthrmn654]

Suppose to be really really good northern lights tonight.  Problem is these dam clouds came out of nowhere must be sound effect related with the wind

[BxEngine]

January obs and discussions. Thats it.

[wthrmn654]

Yey it's snowing

[RU848789]

40 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The NBM does not incorporate the AI guidance. Here's the list for models used for purposes of calculating snowfall:

I saw that, too, but thought it was an older source.  It should be easier to find this kind of info, lol.  

[rclab]

1 hour ago, vegan_edible said:

didnt want to say anything but she's had a particularly bad past year and this just doesnt sound like a good idea lmao

Good evening v e . At almost 79 and being alone for the last eight years …… there will always be another weather event but there may never be another her. Insure your flight, as always……

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

I saw that, too, but thought it was an older source.  It should be easier to find this kind of info, lol.  

I had to look at the 4.3 updates to see if any new models were added. They weren't. I agree that it should be easier to find this documentation.

[donsutherland1]

The coldest and likely snowiest two-week period of Winter 2025-2026 lies ahead.

Arctic air will move into the region tonight. Tomorrow could be the coldest day so far this season with highs struggling to reach the lower 20s and lows in the teens in New York City. Suburban areas could see single-digit lows, especially on Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be another unseasonably cold day. An even colder Arctic front will cross the region on Thursday, possibly with some snow flurries or snow showers. A frigid weekend lies ahead. Snow could arrive on Sunday. 

The temperature could stay below 20° in New York City on Saturday. The last time that happened was January 21, 2025 when the high was 19°. 

Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +24.08 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.066 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 95% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.4° (2.3° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.2° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[[email protected]]

Have the models today, backed off the severity of the cold, this weekend and next week?

[WeatherFox]

15 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

Have the models today, backed off the severity of the cold, this weekend and next week?

No

[coastalplainsnowman]

8 minutes ago, WeatherFox said:

No

I am starting to get inquiries from normal family and friends asking me about the storm next weekend.  It seems that the hype machine may be warming up and that word of this potential storm has broken containment beyond the nerdosphere.

[vegan_edible]

1 hour ago, rclab said:

Good evening v e . At almost 79 and being alone for the last eight years …… there will always be another weather event but there may never be another her. Insure your flight, as always……

beautifully put!

[TriPol]

18 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I am starting to get inquiries from normal family and friends asking me about the storm next weekend.  It seems that the hype machine may be warming up and that word of this potential storm has broken containment beyond the nerdosphere.

The hype machine doesn't end until the middle of April. There's always that mid-february/early march storm, the mid march storm, the moderate event in the beginning of april... still a shot at snow around easter... 

Every year. I think we got a shot toward the end of next week though. We'll see.

[wxman]

On 1/16/2026 at 2:11 AM, snowman19 said:

Way out there, but next weekend looks like a possible SWFE. Those normally favor New England but it’s going to be many days before we start to get a clearer picture of what’s going to happen….

What a difference a few days makes, eh?

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, wxman said:

What a difference a few days makes, eh?

Things can change very quickly. We could go from suppression to worrying about sleet in a couple days. 

[wxman]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Things can change very quickly. We could go from suppression to worrying about sleet in a couple days. 

Indeed!  Would not be surprised...despite everyone saying "it's different" with this type of setup.

[WeatherFox]

Five to six days is way to early for any forecast detail and probability. Though we can have fun tracking the models, chatting and opining here.

[MANDA]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The coldest and likely snowiest two-week period of Winter 2025-2026 lies ahead.

Arctic air will move into the region tonight. Tomorrow could be the coldest day so far this season with highs struggling to reach the lower 20s and lows in the teens in New York City. Suburban areas could see single-digit lows, especially on Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be another unseasonably cold day. An even colder Arctic front will cross the region on Thursday, possibly with some snow flurries or snow showers. A frigid weekend lies ahead. Snow could arrive on Sunday. 

The temperature could stay below 20° in New York City on Saturday. The last time that happened was January 21, 2025 when the high was 19°. 

Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +24.08 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.066 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 95% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.4° (2.3° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.2° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

That January mean temperature is sinking faster than cement shoes in the Hudson.  

[MANDA]

2 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I am starting to get inquiries from normal family and friends asking me about the storm next weekend.  It seems that the hype machine may be warming up and that word of this potential storm has broken containment beyond the nerdosphere.

It has past "warming up" it is flaming.  Those 360 hour snowfall maps are making the rounds fast.

[SACRUS]

 

Down to 23 here and dropping

 

Coldest air descending onto the upper MId West / G-L