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January 2026 OBS and Discussion


TriPol
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25 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

45 inches in Richmond? That would set their seasonal record in a one week period. Unlikely but there's always a first for everything. 

We all know that isn't going to happen. We don't have a +PDO (like 2014-15) or +ENSO (like 2009-10). Those are the types of winters you need to produce a lot of snow in such a short period of time in the 2nd half of January and February. You're not going to get that in a -PDO/-ENSO like this year.

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ok amwx family. 

 

i studied photography. i like snow. my understanding of how weather works has greatly improved over the past 3 years ive been on the board but compared to the rest of you... im an idiot

 

i have a flight scheduled to san diego sunday. girlfriend (who is already in SD) birthday celebration is monday

 

should i start thinking about switching my flight to saturday? 

 

pls don't weenie me to oblivion... im vegan

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2 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

ok amwx family. 

 

i studied photography. i like snow. my understanding of how weather works has greatly improved over the past 3 years ive been on the board but compared to the rest of you... im an idiot

 

i have a flight scheduled to san diego sunday. girlfriend (who is already in SD) birthday celebration is monday

 

should i start thinking about switching my flight to saturday? 

 

pls don't weenie me to oblivion... im vegan

 

groundhog-day-groundhog.png

 

Your safest bet is to leave Friday or send flowers and stay back and enjoy the snow.

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3 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

ok amwx family. 

 

i studied photography. i like snow. my understanding of how weather works has greatly improved over the past 3 years ive been on the board but compared to the rest of you... im an idiot

 

i have a flight scheduled to san diego sunday. girlfriend (who is already in SD) birthday celebration is monday

 

should i start thinking about switching my flight to saturday? 

 

pls don't weenie me to oblivion... im vegan

Would definitely consider it. Wait a few days if you can though

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is also further north 

The Op would be IMO a bit suppressed but what this system could do too is turn the corner late.  So we may see a move in the next 2-3 days towards the system being further south back in the WRN TN Valley/Deep South/Plains but still making the move more up the coast.  Just later on than the CMC shows for example

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2 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

ok amwx family. 

 

i studied photography. i like snow. my understanding of how weather works has greatly improved over the past 3 years ive been on the board but compared to the rest of you... im an idiot

 

i have a flight scheduled to san diego sunday. girlfriend (who is already in SD) birthday celebration in monday

 

should i start thinking about switching my flight to saturday? 

 

pls don't weenie me to oblivion... im vegan

Fine, no weenies for the vegan.

source.gif

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10 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

ok amwx family. 

 

i studied photography. i like snow. my understanding of how weather works has greatly improved over the past 3 years ive been on the board but compared to the rest of you... im an idiot

 

i have a flight scheduled to san diego sunday. girlfriend (who is already in SD) birthday celebration is monday

 

should i start thinking about switching my flight to saturday? 

 

pls don't weenie me to oblivion... im vegan

Definitely stick with the scheduled flight otherwise you risk jinxing the storm for the rest of us.  Oh, and burn your snow thrower today, latest..  

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5 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

This is still 6 days out. This can easily move 100 miles north. All it would take is that strong banana high to be not as strong as currently modeled. Or, the high further north than currently modeled. But I'll leave that to the Mets on here to figure out.

I'd be nervous if we were in the bullseye this far out as these things almost always come north. 

Having models keeping this south 6 days out is not a bad thing 

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10 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

groundhog-day-groundhog.png

 

Your safest bet is to leave Friday or send flowers and stay back and enjoy the snow.

 

9 minutes ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

Start thinking about it, but no need to pull the trigger yet unless there's limited availability on Saturday flights

 

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Would definitely consider it. Wait a few days if you can though

she's been taking care of family with poor health, flowers and snowfall wont get me too far. think im gonna start searching and possibly pull the trigger tomorrow? just incase

 

thanks to you guys! also MAJOR shout out for not sending me to oscar meyer's weenie land

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I can’t even think about getting excited for this until Wednesday or Thursday. The depictions we’re seeing is what happens when everything goes right, digitally speaking. The odds of things happening that way are small, but there’s always a chance I suppose. 

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2 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

I believe that the rule of thumb was there or the Mississippi River to close off. 

That’s too far West. January 96’ was over the TN valley. PD2 was a bit further North but the trough was similar. It’s really more about where the trough axis is. You essentially have a southern stream vort that’s acting like a speeding car running into a brick wall which is the dome of very cold and dry air. Sometimes it ends up too far South like 2010 because the NAO block is too strong. 
 

The MJO is entering phase 8 and propagating towards phase 1 so I’m really not surprised by all theses threats showing up. The PV is stretching and coming South so there will be a few week window for major storms until it retracts and the pattern breaks down at the end of February. Until then it should be open season for awhile. This is the best pattern we’ve had in years.

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