January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[PhiEaglesfan712]

25 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

45 inches in Richmond? That would set their seasonal record in a one week period. Unlikely but there's always a first for everything. 

We all know that isn't going to happen. We don't have a +PDO (like 2014-15) or +ENSO (like 2009-10). Those are the types of winters you need to produce a lot of snow in such a short period of time in the 2nd half of January and February. You're not going to get that in a -PDO/-ENSO like this year.

[vegan_edible]

ok amwx family. 

 

i studied photography. i like snow. my understanding of how weather works has greatly improved over the past 3 years ive been on the board but compared to the rest of you... im an idiot

 

i have a flight scheduled to san diego sunday. girlfriend (who is already in SD) birthday celebration is monday

 

should i start thinking about switching my flight to saturday? 

 

pls don't weenie me to oblivion... im vegan

[MJO812]

Eps is also further north 

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

ok amwx family. 

 

i studied photography. i like snow. my understanding of how weather works has greatly improved over the past 3 years ive been on the board but compared to the rest of you... im an idiot

 

i have a flight scheduled to san diego sunday. girlfriend (who is already in SD) birthday celebration is monday

 

should i start thinking about switching my flight to saturday? 

 

pls don't weenie me to oblivion... im vegan

 

 

Your safest bet is to leave Friday or send flowers and stay back and enjoy the snow.

[CentralNJSnowman]

3 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

should i start thinking about switching my flight to saturday? 

Start thinking about it, but no need to pull the trigger yet unless there's limited availability on Saturday flights

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

ok amwx family. 

 

i studied photography. i like snow. my understanding of how weather works has greatly improved over the past 3 years ive been on the board but compared to the rest of you... im an idiot

 

i have a flight scheduled to san diego sunday. girlfriend (who is already in SD) birthday celebration is monday

 

should i start thinking about switching my flight to saturday? 

 

pls don't weenie me to oblivion... im vegan

Would definitely consider it. Wait a few days if you can though

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is also further north 

The Op would be IMO a bit suppressed but what this system could do too is turn the corner late.  So we may see a move in the next 2-3 days towards the system being further south back in the WRN TN Valley/Deep South/Plains but still making the move more up the coast.  Just later on than the CMC shows for example

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

ok amwx family. 

 

i studied photography. i like snow. my understanding of how weather works has greatly improved over the past 3 years ive been on the board but compared to the rest of you... im an idiot

 

i have a flight scheduled to san diego sunday. girlfriend (who is already in SD) birthday celebration in monday

 

should i start thinking about switching my flight to saturday? 

 

pls don't weenie me to oblivion... im vegan

Fine, no weenies for the vegan.

[sussexcountyobs]

This is still 6 days out. This can easily move 100 miles north. All it would take is that strong banana high to be not as strong as currently modeled. Or, the high further north than currently modeled. But I'll leave that to the Mets on here to figure out.

[cleetussnow]

48 minutes ago, North and West said:

I’m going to have to call a doctor.


.

Only if it doesn’t go away after 4 hours.  

[cleetussnow]

45 minutes ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

At least since last week when the GFS had a run that buried OH, PA, NJ, WV, NY, CT, RI and MA in 3-6 feet of snow. 

And thats the one run out of the last 40 that verify. Lol. Love it. 

[vegan_edible]

4 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Fine, no weenies for the vegan.

<3

[cleetussnow]

10 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

ok amwx family. 

 

i studied photography. i like snow. my understanding of how weather works has greatly improved over the past 3 years ive been on the board but compared to the rest of you... im an idiot

 

i have a flight scheduled to san diego sunday. girlfriend (who is already in SD) birthday celebration is monday

 

should i start thinking about switching my flight to saturday? 

 

pls don't weenie me to oblivion... im vegan

Definitely stick with the scheduled flight otherwise you risk jinxing the storm for the rest of us.  Oh, and burn your snow thrower today, latest..  

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

This is still 6 days out. This can easily move 100 miles north. All it would take is that strong banana high to be not as strong as currently modeled. Or, the high further north than currently modeled. But I'll leave that to the Mets on here to figure out.

I'd be nervous if we were in the bullseye this far out as these things almost always come north. 

Having models keeping this south 6 days out is not a bad thing 

[vegan_edible]

10 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Your safest bet is to leave Friday or send flowers and stay back and enjoy the snow.

 

9 minutes ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

Start thinking about it, but no need to pull the trigger yet unless there's limited availability on Saturday flights

 

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Would definitely consider it. Wait a few days if you can though

she's been taking care of family with poor health, flowers and snowfall wont get me too far. think im gonna start searching and possibly pull the trigger tomorrow? just incase

 

thanks to you guys! also MAJOR shout out for not sending me to oscar meyer's weenie land

[BoulderWX]

I can’t even think about getting excited for this until Wednesday or Thursday. The depictions we’re seeing is what happens when everything goes right, digitally speaking. The odds of things happening that way are small, but there’s always a chance I suppose. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

anyone have the kuchera euro ai clown map for the whole run?

[Jersey_Snowhole]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

anyone have the kuchera euro ai clown map for the whole run?

 

[NJwx85]

For this to really to go bonkers you’d want the trough to close off over the Tennessee Valley. Even so, there will be an insane amount of overrunning precip. 

[SACRUS]

 

Some flurries / snow squallls into PA with the front, maybe a stray flurry or shower makes it this way. Was up to 33 now clouds / mostly cloudy and down to 30

 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

7 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

anyone have the kuchera euro ai clown map for the whole run?

 

[hudsonvalley21]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

For this to really to go bonkers you’d want the trough to close off over the Tennessee Valley. Even so, there will be an insane amount of overrunning precip. 

I believe that the rule of thumb was there or the Mississippi River to close off. 

[hudsonvalley21]

I would love to have @wdrag to start a thread when and if it’s needed.

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

I believe that the rule of thumb was there or the Mississippi River to close off. 

That’s too far West. January 96’ was over the TN valley. PD2 was a bit further North but the trough was similar. It’s really more about where the trough axis is. You essentially have a southern stream vort that’s acting like a speeding car running into a brick wall which is the dome of very cold and dry air. Sometimes it ends up too far South like 2010 because the NAO block is too strong. 
 

The MJO is entering phase 8 and propagating towards phase 1 so I’m really not surprised by all theses threats showing up. The PV is stretching and coming South so there will be a few week window for major storms until it retracts and the pattern breaks down at the end of February. Until then it should be open season for awhile. This is the best pattern we’ve had in years.

[Jt17]

 

With ratios the entire 95 corridor gets 50+ inches lol


.

[TJW014]

Kinda giving a potential repeat of President's Day 2003 vibes. First snowstorm that I remember. Wasn't even 2 yet. We had 22" here. My dad built an igloo in our front yard. My grandfather used me as a "brush" to get the snow off his Suburban 

[CentralNJSnowman]

Is it just me, or are both posts above in response to the request for a Kuchera of the AI Euro, actually 10:1 maps, not Kuchera?  

[Winterweatherlover]

I mean I lean suppression in this case but I agree you'd rather have the storm track where it is now 5-6 days out then be in the jackpot zone. 

[MANDA]

While we wait for the biblical snows this is worth a watch:

ouch.  Wouldn't want to be stuck in that mess in that kind of cold.  Can't imagine how long it will take to get traffic moving again.  Gotta believe 6+ hours??

https://x.com/i/status/2013289835960611318

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

While we wait for the biblical snows this is worth a watch:

ouch.

https://x.com/i/status/2013289835960611318

Yikes, this is why 95 percent of the population hates snow