January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Back to back

The Euro AI is back to back to back. 

[MJO812]

Just now, Rjay said:

The Euro AI is back to back to back. 

Snowfall amounts for the whole period is insane. 

[Rjay]

Just now, Rjay said:

The Euro AI is back to back to back. 

Weeniest run I've seen in a very long time. 

[North and West]

all snow

I’m going to have to call a doctor.


.

[Nibor]

Just now, North and West said:

I’m going to have to call a doctor.


.

RIP. No way a doctor is getting to you in time when you live in the far lands. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

euro loading?

[kat5hurricane]

Give us this look in 2-3 days and I'll get excited but when you see a model consensus on a big storm in the vicinity even if it's still almost a week out it definitely deserves attention.

[CentralNJSnowman]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Weeniest run I've seen in a very long time. 

At least since last week when the GFS had a run that buried OH, PA, NJ, WV, NY, CT, RI and MA in 3-6 feet of snow. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, CentralNJSnowman said:

At least since last week when the GFS had a run that buried OH, PA, NJ, WV, NY, CT, RI and MA in 3-6 feet of snow. 

that's the same storm

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Snowfall amounts for the whole period is insane. 

well Feb 2010 had 36.9 in NYC so anything is possible

[Franklin0529]

The euro AI is run straight outta Anthony's basement. What a weenie run

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

The euro AI is run straight outta Anthony's basement. What a weenie run

(A) is Anthony for that run.

32 / 19 here 

[North and West]

RIP. No way a doctor is getting to you in time when you live in the far lands. 

We have those old timey country doctors out here who carry bags and wear the bird masks.




.

[TJW014]

AI = Anthony's Imagination?

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

euro loading?

Looks like a improvement. But not in the Ai/cmc/ukie camp

[Rjay]

Gfs AI has 3 threats too

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Snowfall amounts for the whole period is insane. 

45 inches in Richmond? That would set their seasonal record in a one week period. Unlikely but there's always a first for everything. 

[MJO812]

Euro gets snow into SNE

[NEG NAO]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Looks like a improvement. But not in the Ai/cmc/ukie camp

Euro was late to the show for this past weekend event too. Kept showing out to sea.........up until Friday

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Euro gets snow into SNE

Yea nice jump North 

 

[NorthShoreWx]

16 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Weeniest run I've seen in a very long time. 

Meanwhile, the 12z op GFS has about 1.25" qpf in our backyards over the next 16 days and half of that is rain.  It wouldn't be as much fun if everything was locked in.

[Franklin0529]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks like a improvement. But not in the Ai/cmc/ukie camp

The AI have been outperforming regular models. They don't waver much. An their ensembles have been rock solid. 

[SnoSki14]

This reminds me of a lighter version of PDII. 

Wish it were a few days closer however large systems usually stay on guidance and don't shift that much. 

[NorthShoreWx]

15 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

The euro AI is run straight outta Anthony's basement. What a weenie run

It rubs the lotion on its skin.

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This reminds me of a lighter version of PDII. 

Wish it were a few days closer however large systems usually stay on guidance and don't shift that much. 

Lets not forget this weekend is the 10th Anniversary of the January 2016 Blizzard

January 22-24, 2016 Blizzard

[kat5hurricane]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This reminds me of a lighter version of PDII. 

Wish it were a few days closer however large systems usually stay on guidance and don't shift that much. 

That's what gives me a bit more confidence. These large sprawling long duration events are generally more accurately modelled than the thread the needle faster moving ones. As of now, it's just nice to have something to track.

[sussexcountyobs]

Cloudy with snow flurries and occasional blowing snow. 27.0

[SACRUS]

 

FRom the Mid Atlantic contingent

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

Be careful with the EUROAI post 120, from about there inside its been good.  Beyond that less so.  I still like an idea as of now slightly north of the Op Euro idea.  

[Nibor]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

FRom the Mid Atlantic contingent

 

 

Shades of pre Jan 2016