January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[WestBabylonWeather]

LFG

[NJwx85]

Not trying to over hype but the setup next weekend has similarities with 96’

[brooklynwx99]

i'd be excited if I was in the metro... northern fringes can do well with banding and these systems love to tick north up to game time. we'll have to monitor confluence and the phasing potential, but this could be formidable. and that's not even mentioning the 28-29th

[SnoSki14]

11 minutes ago, psv88 said:

See February 2010. Not always. 

One of the strongest blocking patterns on record. AO will get pretty negative but NAO not so much. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Nice improvement on the GGEM. 

 

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie is awesome 

 

27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Nice to see CMC come aboard. There's more support than just the AI models. And these things usually trend north unless there's a massive -NAO type block 

 

22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gefs came north too

 

19 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

if this trends more north we could be in for a doozy 12-24 inches is possible

 

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Not trying to over hype but the setup next weekend has similarities with 96’

 

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i'd be excited if I was in the metro... northern fringes can do well with banding and these systems love to tick north up to game time. we'll have to monitor confluence and the phasing potential, but this could be formidable. and that's not even mentioning the 28-29th

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

When Don is posting kuchera maps… 

[Prue11]

I just have a hard time believing suppression won’t come in to play. Gut feeling is mid Atlantic see some snow 

[NJwx85]

Just now, Prue11 said:

I just have a hard time believing suppression won’t come in to play. Gut feeling is mid Atlantic see some snow 

These always trend North at this range. I’d be worried right now if we were in the bullseye 

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, Prue11 said:

I just have a hard time believing suppression won’t come in to play. Gut feeling is mid Atlantic see some snow 

this is a strong big storm, suppression works for smaller scale storms! I think this keeps trending north 

[binbisso]

I'll be in Charlotte this weekend might be stuck there for days if some of the guidance is correct 

[forkyfork]

27 minutes ago, psv88 said:

See February 2010. Not always. 

it did for philadelphia

[WeatherGeek2025]

8 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

it did for philadelphia

what's your thought on the upcoming snow threat Forky?

[SACRUS]

12Z Guidance (QPF)  Jan 24 OOZ to Jan 25 1800

 

Don or others can you add specific QPF for NYC?  I think it'll be helpful to track run to run.

 

GFS:  0
ICON:
GGEM (CMC) : 0.75-1.00
UKMET:   >1.00
ECMWF:
GEFS:
GEP:
EPS:

[Stormlover74]

Euro AI another big hit 

An insane run with 2 followup storms and 2 to 3 feet total

[NEG NAO]

46 minutes ago, psv88 said:

See February 2010. Not always. 

I was over at Ray's archives and there were 5 snowstorms listed in Feb. 2010 - which one you talking about ?

[Winterweatherlover]

Given the pattern and depth of the cold I'd favor suppression for next weekend over a big hit here but we'll see. Hope I'm wrong.

[donsutherland1]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

I was over at Ray's archives and there were 5 snowstorms listed in Feb. 2010 - which one you talking about ?

Probably 2/5-6/2010.

[WeatherGeek2025]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro AI another big hit 

huge  snows for 24 hours straight

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Given the pattern and depth of the cold I'd favor suppression for next weekend over a big hit here but we'll see. Hope I'm wrong.

i'd go with AI models

[MJO812]

Back to back

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Wow are we aloud to post stormvista maps?

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i'd go with AI models

I wouldn't latch onto any models this far out, more so focus on the pattern and then model specifics inside of 120 hours. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Back to back

first one temps in the teens

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Just now, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Wow are we aloud to post stormvista maps?

End of run euro ai 

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Probably 2/5-6/2010.

Snow storm, February 5-6, 2010 - Storm Summary

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

53 minutes ago, psv88 said:

See February 2010. Not always. 

But by the end of the month they did. 

[North and West]

Cmc is snow with temps of 5 to 10 sunday morning

.

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, North and West said:

.

all snow

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

Ratio's will be higher with these temps

Best to post qpf charts, or at least 10:1 snowfall at this point.  That way everyone can make their own forecasts of ratios from a common starting point. 

The same water content is pretty much the same amount of snow on the ground a few days after it falls regardless of the ratio when it fell.  SWE matters.

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Probably one of the times where it might prove more useful

It could possibly be useful by Saturday morning.  It is unhelpful now.