January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[TJW014]

Side note: the aurora may be visible on the horizon tonight. NOAA SWPC has a G4 Watch for tonight-tomorrow AM. New moon and clear sky should offer a good viewing opportunity if you're willing to find a dark sky and freeze outside. 

[nycwinter]

for such little snow their is a ridiculous amount of salt on the sidewalks and the street every time a big truck goes on by a mist of salt follows..

[donsutherland1]

Comparison of the 1/19 6z and 12z GFS runs:

6z:

12z:

[donsutherland1]

Nice improvement on the GGEM. 

[Stormlover74]

Ukie gonna be a nice hit too

[MJO812]

Ukie is awesome 

[WeatherGeek2025]

14 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

1 run is not a trend


.

ai shows a foot of snow for the city 

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Nice improvement on the GGEM. 

Don do you think we can use kuchera on this type of storm! lighter winds and brutal cold storm?

[Joe4alb]

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Nice improvement on the GGEM. 

Ratio's will be higher with these temps

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Joe4alb said:

And that's at 10:1

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Don do you think we can use kuchera on this type of storm! lighter winds and brutal cold storm?

Probably one of the times where it might prove more useful

[SnoSki14]

Nice to see CMC come aboard. There's more support than just the AI models. And these things usually trend north unless there's a massive -NAO type block 

[hudsonvalley21]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Nice improvement on the GGEM. 

Surprised to see that. I would have thought it would be suppressed. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Nice to see CMC come aboard. There's more support than just the AI models. And these things usually trend north unless there's a massive -NAO type block 

Yeah hopefully the euro improves and we have just the gfs in its usual suppression lala land

[NEG NAO]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Nice to see CMC come aboard. There's more support than just the AI models. And these things usually trend north unless there's a massive -NAO type block 

The other positive even if it trends north we don't have to worry about temps probably

[Franklin0529]

Remember. The AI lead the way with this past weekend an have scored better then the global ops

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Nice to see CMC come aboard. There's more support than just the AI models. And these things usually trend north unless there's a massive -NAO type block 

didn't cmc have this weekends storm as well before the euro

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah hopefully the euro improves and we have just the gfs in its usual suppression lala land

you forgot about the 20 inch la la land it has shown from previous storms this season

[Stormlover74]

Gefs came north too

[SnowGoose69]

Its still too far out but right now something between the UKMET and CMC would be my guess.  I'd rather be here than Boston or Albany right now, thats for sure.  I think the CMC may overall be a bit north of what eventually happens

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

you forgot about the 20 inch la la land it has shown from previous storms this season

I don’t care. Of all the long range models I’d want the euro showing the storm. 

[Franklin0529]

Might be a good weekend to go check on the beach house in Ocean City 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

Might be a good weekend to go check on the beach house in Ocean City 

if this trends more north we could be in for a doozy 12-24 inches is possible

[Franklin0529]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

if this trends more north we could be in for a doozy 12-24 inches is possible

Yea. I won't get excited till Thursday. But it's good to see it showing up. Tons of potential from the 25 onwards. CMC got a storm 3 days later an then another not far after that. Very active 

[snywx]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Its still too far out but right now something between the UKMET and CMC would be my guess.  I'd rather be here than Boston or Albany right now, thats for sure.  I think the CMC may overall be a bit north of what eventually happens

These always trend N. 

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, snywx said:

These always trend N. 

See February 2010. Not always. 

[Lucy Pull]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gefs came north too

Yeah GFS OP looks it could be on the southern side of the ensemble envelope.

GEFS brings some non-negligible precip into the area. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

See February 2010. Not always. 

january 2026 did

 

question? should we make a thread 5 likes and we go for it?

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

january 2026 did

 

question? should we make a thread 5 likes and we go for it?

Not til at least Wednesday